……至少有一点看起来挺准的——油价下跌很可能会给俄罗斯政府敲响丧钟。以前就发生过这种情况：参考经济学家、前俄罗斯总理叶戈尔·盖达尔（Yegor Gaidar）写的这本非常有意思的书：《帝国消亡》（Collapse of an Empire）。强烈推荐。不过简而言之，他的核心论点是苏俄倒台的原因在于油价暴跌跌破了支撑财政支出的水平，加之体制本身存在的结构性缺陷……
…one point at least seems accurate -- falling oil prices will probably doom Russia's government. This has happened before: see this very interesting book by economist and former Russian PM Yegor Gaidar: Collapse of an Empire. I can't recommend it enough. But basically, his thesis is the reason communist Russia fell was oil prices fell below the level needed to support spending and because of structural deficiencies in the…
> 叶戈尔·盖达尔 [1] 是个极佳的资料来源 该书英文版为 [1] Yegor Gaidar 的《Collapse of an Empire: Lessons for Modern Russia》。TLDR 也许可以看这篇 [2] 讲座纪要，8 页纸，非常有意思。[1] https://www.amazon.com/Collapse-Empire-Lessons-Modern-Russia... [1] https://www.aei.org/wp-content/uploads/2011/10/20070419_Gaid...
> Egor Gaidar [1] is an excellent source This is published in English as [1] Yegor Gaidar, "Collapse of an Empire: Lessons for Modern Russia". TLDR is maybe this [2] write-up of a talk, 8 pages, very interesting. [1] https://www.amazon.com/Collapse-Empire-Lessons-Modern-Russia... [1] https://www.aei.org/wp-content/uploads/2011/10/20070419_Gaid...
如果你真想探究苏联解体的原因，我建议读读祖博克（Zubok）的《Collapse the fall of Soviet Union》或者盖达尔的《Collapse of an Empire》（帝国消亡）。这两本书都通俗好读。上述原因跟美国当下的情况完全不是一码事。
If you really want to find out the reasons why USSR failed I suggest reading “Collapse the fall of Soviet Union” by Zubok or “Collapse of an Empire” by Gaidar. They are easy to read books. Said reasons are quite different from what is going on in USA at the moment.
……由叶戈尔·盖达尔（Yegor Gaidar）提供的苏联（分析），他在 1992 年 6 月至 12 月曾担任俄罗斯代总理，并且是俄罗斯经济转型的关键人物。在他于 2007 年出版的绝笔之作《Collapse of an Empire: Lessons for Modern Russia》中，盖达尔对苏联解体给出了极具说服力的解释。20 世纪 80 年代苏联农业陷入停滞，但对粮食的需求却……
…Soviet Union provided by Yegor Gaidar, who had been acting prime minister of Russia from June of 1992 to December of 1992 and a key figure in the transformation of the Russian economy. In his last work, Collapse of an Empire: Lessons for Modern Russia, published in 2007 Gaidar provides a powerful explanation for the collapse of the Soviet Union. Soviet agriculture had stagnated in the 1980's but the demand for grain in the…
叶戈尔·盖达尔的书在亚马逊上有卖：《Collapse of an Empire: Lessons for Modern Russia》http://www.amazon.com/Collapse-Empire-Lessons-Modern-Russia/... 简介和书评都写得非常详尽。
Yegor Gaidar's book is on Amazon: "Collapse of an Empire: Lessons for Modern Russia" http://www.amazon.com/Collapse-Empire-Lessons-Modern-Russia/... The description and reviews are very comprehensive.
……这意味着俄罗斯一直在吃 2022 年之前的老本。也就是说再过几年，俄罗斯就会重蹈 70 年代的覆辙：对其产能最高的油田进行过度开采。想看看这部电影是怎么收场的，就去读读盖达尔的《帝国消亡》（Collapse of an Empire）。
…Which means Russia is coasting on what they had up to 2022. Meaning in a few years Russia will do what it did in the 70s: over-extract its most productive fields. To see how that movie ended read Gaidar's Collapse of an Empire.
……至少有一点看起来挺准的——油价下跌很可能会给俄罗斯政府敲响丧钟。以前就发生过这种情况：参考经济学家、前俄罗斯总理叶戈尔·盖达尔（Yegor Gaidar）写的这本非常有意思的书：《帝国消亡》（Collapse of an Empire）。强烈推荐。不过简而言之，他的核心论点是苏俄倒台的原因在于油价暴跌跌破了支撑财政支出的水平，加之体制本身存在的结构性缺陷……
…one point at least seems accurate -- falling oil prices will probably doom Russia's government. This has happened before: see this very interesting book by economist and former Russian PM Yegor Gaidar: Collapse of an Empire. I can't recommend it enough. But basically, his thesis is the reason communist Russia fell was oil prices fell below the level needed to support spending and because of structural deficiencies in the…
> 叶戈尔·盖达尔 [1] 是个极佳的资料来源 该书英文版为 [1] Yegor Gaidar 的《Collapse of an Empire: Lessons for Modern Russia》。TLDR 也许可以看这篇 [2] 讲座纪要，8 页纸，非常有意思。[1] https://www.amazon.com/Collapse-Empire-Lessons-Modern-Russia... [1] https://www.aei.org/wp-content/uploads/2011/10/20070419_Gaid...
> Egor Gaidar [1] is an excellent source This is published in English as [1] Yegor Gaidar, "Collapse of an Empire: Lessons for Modern Russia". TLDR is maybe this [2] write-up of a talk, 8 pages, very interesting. [1] https://www.amazon.com/Collapse-Empire-Lessons-Modern-Russia... [1] https://www.aei.org/wp-content/uploads/2011/10/20070419_Gaid...
如果你真想探究苏联解体的原因，我建议读读祖博克（Zubok）的《Collapse the fall of Soviet Union》或者盖达尔的《Collapse of an Empire》（帝国消亡）。这两本书都通俗好读。上述原因跟美国当下的情况完全不是一码事。
If you really want to find out the reasons why USSR failed I suggest reading “Collapse the fall of Soviet Union” by Zubok or “Collapse of an Empire” by Gaidar. They are easy to read books. Said reasons are quite different from what is going on in USA at the moment.
……由叶戈尔·盖达尔（Yegor Gaidar）提供的苏联（分析），他在 1992 年 6 月至 12 月曾担任俄罗斯代总理，并且是俄罗斯经济转型的关键人物。在他于 2007 年出版的绝笔之作《Collapse of an Empire: Lessons for Modern Russia》中，盖达尔对苏联解体给出了极具说服力的解释。20 世纪 80 年代苏联农业陷入停滞，但对粮食的需求却……
…Soviet Union provided by Yegor Gaidar, who had been acting prime minister of Russia from June of 1992 to December of 1992 and a key figure in the transformation of the Russian economy. In his last work, Collapse of an Empire: Lessons for Modern Russia, published in 2007 Gaidar provides a powerful explanation for the collapse of the Soviet Union. Soviet agriculture had stagnated in the 1980's but the demand for grain in the…
叶戈尔·盖达尔的书在亚马逊上有卖：《Collapse of an Empire: Lessons for Modern Russia》http://www.amazon.com/Collapse-Empire-Lessons-Modern-Russia/... 简介和书评都写得非常详尽。
Yegor Gaidar's book is on Amazon: "Collapse of an Empire: Lessons for Modern Russia" http://www.amazon.com/Collapse-Empire-Lessons-Modern-Russia/... The description and reviews are very comprehensive.
……这意味着俄罗斯一直在吃 2022 年之前的老本。也就是说再过几年，俄罗斯就会重蹈 70 年代的覆辙：对其产能最高的油田进行过度开采。想看看这部电影是怎么收场的，就去读读盖达尔的《帝国消亡》（Collapse of an Empire）。
…Which means Russia is coasting on what they had up to 2022. Meaning in a few years Russia will do what it did in the 70s: over-extract its most productive fields. To see how that movie ended read Gaidar's Collapse of an Empire.