If you want to feel happy again read “Robot” or "Mind Children” by Hans Moravec. He has some pretty good arguments based on human vision that support a AGI around 2030 to 2040 assuming Moore’s Law (the general not specific law) hold.
……扣掉 99.9% 的 FICA 税，给每个人从出生起就发社保。不少探讨“后工作时代”的作者都描绘过这种场景，他们设想人类将重回狩猎采集社会。比如汉斯·莫拉维克的《Mind Children》。以前我们漫步大自然，那些神奇的自动化机器为我们产出一切：树上的坚果和水果，任人采摘。未来，我们漫步四方，而机器人们……
…99.9% FICA, paying social security to everyone at birth. This scenario has been covered by quite a few "post-work" authors, who look at humans returning to a hunter-gather society. See Hans Moravec in _Mind Children_ for example. We used to walk around and these marvelous automated machines produced everything for us: nuts and fruits from trees, free for the picking. In the future, we'll walk around, and robots…
That theme is explored in Hans Moravec's books: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hans_Moravec "In his 1988 book Mind Children (ISBN 0674576187), Moravec outlines Moore's law and predictions about the future of artificial life. Moravec outlines a timeline and a scenario in this regard,[6][7] in that the robots will evolve into…
…worker supporting 10 retirees, you have 1 robot, or 1 AI supporting hundreds of "retirees" (from birth) using "wages" that are no longer paid to the robot (labor), but to the capitalist. Hans Moravec in _Mind Children_ outlined a version of this 20 years in how increasing productivity from automation will gradually produce a society that looks more like a hunter gather society and less than an industrial one, in that…
…Addictiveness", "A Group is its Own Worst Enemy", "The Cyber Effect", and so on). I spent a year hanging around Hans Moravec's robotics lab (at the CMU Robotics Institute) in the mid 1980s, when he was writing "Mind Children". While he is a brilliant and well-meaning person, my concern became that Mind Children could wipe out humanity like many a stormy adolescent with parental issues and only regret it late. Or, alternatively,…
Hans Moravec wrote a book, _Mind Children_, in which he provided a thought experiment where consciousness could be transfered even by the standards of a process-partisan (as opposed to pattern partisans, for whom every sufficiently like mind…
如果你想重新对未来感到乐观，去读读汉斯·莫拉维克（Hans Moravec）的《Robot》或者《Mind Children》（心智之子）吧。他在书中基于人类视觉提出了相当扎实的论据，认为在摩尔定律（广义而非狭义的定律）继续成立的前提下，AGI 大概会在 2030 到 2040 年左右到来。
If you want to feel happy again read “Robot” or "Mind Children” by Hans Moravec. He has some pretty good arguments based on human vision that support a AGI around 2030 to 2040 assuming Moore’s Law (the general not specific law) hold.
……扣掉 99.9% 的 FICA 税，给每个人从出生起就发社保。不少探讨“后工作时代”的作者都描绘过这种场景，他们设想人类将重回狩猎采集社会。比如汉斯·莫拉维克的《Mind Children》。以前我们漫步大自然，那些神奇的自动化机器为我们产出一切：树上的坚果和水果，任人采摘。未来，我们漫步四方，而机器人们……
…99.9% FICA, paying social security to everyone at birth. This scenario has been covered by quite a few "post-work" authors, who look at humans returning to a hunter-gather society. See Hans Moravec in _Mind Children_ for example. We used to walk around and these marvelous automated machines produced everything for us: nuts and fruits from trees, free for the picking. In the future, we'll walk around, and robots…
汉斯·莫拉维克的书里探讨过这个主题：https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hans_Moravec “在他 1988 年出版的著作《Mind Children》（ISBN 0674576187）中，莫拉维克概述了摩尔定律以及对人工生命未来的预测。莫拉维克在这方面勾勒了时间线和发展情景，[6][7] 机器人将演变成……
That theme is explored in Hans Moravec's books: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hans_Moravec "In his 1988 book Mind Children (ISBN 0674576187), Moravec outlines Moore's law and predictions about the future of artificial life. Moravec outlines a timeline and a scenario in this regard,[6][7] in that the robots will evolve into…
……一个打工人抚养 10 个退休人员，变成 1 台机器人或 1 个 AI 养活成百上千个“退休人员”（从出生起就退休），用的还是那些不再付给机器人（劳动力）而是流向资本家的“工资”。汉斯·莫拉维克在 20 年前的《Mind Children》里就描绘过这种景象：自动化带来的生产力提升，将逐渐让社会变得更像狩猎采集时代，而不是工业社会，因为……
…worker supporting 10 retirees, you have 1 robot, or 1 AI supporting hundreds of "retirees" (from birth) using "wages" that are no longer paid to the robot (labor), but to the capitalist. Hans Moravec in _Mind Children_ outlined a version of this 20 years in how increasing productivity from automation will gradually produce a society that looks more like a hunter gather society and less than an industrial one, in that…
……《成瘾性》、《群体是其自身最大的敌人》、《网络效应》等等）。1980 年代中期，当汉斯·莫拉维克正在撰写《Mind Children》时，我在他的机器人实验室（位于卡内基梅隆大学机器人研究所）厮混了一年。他虽然才华横溢、心地善良，但我当时开始担忧，《Mind Children》里描绘的存在可能会像很多叛逆且跟父母有隔阂的青少年一样毁灭人类，事后才追悔莫及。或者，另一种可能是……
…Addictiveness", "A Group is its Own Worst Enemy", "The Cyber Effect", and so on). I spent a year hanging around Hans Moravec's robotics lab (at the CMU Robotics Institute) in the mid 1980s, when he was writing "Mind Children". While he is a brilliant and well-meaning person, my concern became that Mind Children could wipe out humanity like many a stormy adolescent with parental issues and only regret it late. Or, alternatively,…
汉斯·莫拉维克写过一本书叫《Mind Children》，他在里面提出了一个思想实验：即便按照“过程论派”（process-partisan）的标准，意识也是可以转移的（相对于“模式论派”而言，对后者来说，任何足够相似的心智……
Hans Moravec wrote a book, _Mind Children_, in which he provided a thought experiment where consciousness could be transfered even by the standards of a process-partisan (as opposed to pattern partisans, for whom every sufficiently like mind…