《Software Engineering Economics》或者 Barry Boehm 写的任何其他东西。他写的是老派的软件开发方法论，也就是非敏捷的那一套，但即便如此也极其硬核、直击本质。
“Software Engineering Economics” or anything else written by Barry Boehm. He writes about old school software development methodology, i.e. not agile, but extremely fundamental nonetheless.
This is the classic reference book on software estimation; and yes, it still applies in 2022… Barry Boehm: https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Barry_Boehm “Software Engineering Economics” https://archive.org/details/softwareengineer0000boeh
I would argue that the second rule is even optional here. There is enough literature (McConnell's Software Estimation, Boehm's Software Engineering Economics) that suggests that, given a well-scoped problem and other projects to base the estimation on, a good (+/-50% or so) estimate is possible. But if you don't know what you're building it's all wasted effort…
……干货文献：Boehm, Barry W., and Philip N. Papaccio. 1988. "Understanding and Controlling Software Costs." IEEE Transactions on Software Engineering SE-14, no. 10 (October): 1462-77. Boehm, Barry, 1981. Software Engineering Economics, Boston, Mass.: Addison Wesley, 1981. Boehm, Barry, et al, 2000. Software Cost Estimation with Cocomo II, Boston, Mass.: Addison Wesley, 2000. Boehm, Barry W., T. E. Gray, and T. Seewaldt. 1984. "Prototyping…
…stuff: Boehm, Barry W., and Philip N. Papaccio. 1988. "Understanding and Controlling Software Costs." IEEE Transactions on Software Engineering SE-14, no. 10 (October): 1462-77. Boehm, Barry, 1981. Software Engineering Economics, Boston, Mass.: Addison Wesley, 1981. Boehm, Barry, et al, 2000. Software Cost Estimation with Cocomo II, Boston, Mass.: Addison Wesley, 2000. Boehm, Barry W., T. E. Gray, and T. Seewaldt. 1984. "Prototyping…
…method that's applied frequently even within organizations (I've worked in and with QA numerous times), and my copy of Cem Kaner's Testing Computer Software doesn't seem to address the matter. Boehm's Software Engineering Economics discusses software reliability modelling at page 181 (Chapter 10: Performance Models and Cost-Effectiveness Models). IEEE has "An efficient defect estimation method for software defect curves" which…
With the right clay, you can make anything. Process is a second order effect. Team (not individual unless you work by yourself) competency rules. Boehm noted that in Software Engineering Economics many decades ago.
《Software Engineering Economics》或者 Barry Boehm 写的任何其他东西。他写的是老派的软件开发方法论，也就是非敏捷的那一套，但即便如此也极其硬核、直击本质。
“Software Engineering Economics” or anything else written by Barry Boehm. He writes about old school software development methodology, i.e. not agile, but extremely fundamental nonetheless.
这是软件估算领域的经典参考书；没错，到了 2022 年它依然适用……Barry Boehm：https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Barry_Boehm 《Software Engineering Economics》https://archive.org/details/softwareengineer0000boeh
This is the classic reference book on software estimation; and yes, it still applies in 2022… Barry Boehm: https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Barry_Boehm “Software Engineering Economics” https://archive.org/details/softwareengineer0000boeh
我认为在这里第二条规则甚至都是可有可无的。已有足够多的文献（McConnell 的《Software Estimation》、Boehm 的《Software Engineering Economics》）表明，只要问题边界清晰，且有其他项目可作为估算参考，给出一个靠谱的（误差在 +/-50% 左右）估算是完全可能的。但如果你连自己要做什么都不知道，那全都是白费功夫……
I would argue that the second rule is even optional here. There is enough literature (McConnell's Software Estimation, Boehm's Software Engineering Economics) that suggests that, given a well-scoped problem and other projects to base the estimation on, a good (+/-50% or so) estimate is possible. But if you don't know what you're building it's all wasted effort…
……干货文献：Boehm, Barry W., and Philip N. Papaccio. 1988. "Understanding and Controlling Software Costs." IEEE Transactions on Software Engineering SE-14, no. 10 (October): 1462-77. Boehm, Barry, 1981. Software Engineering Economics, Boston, Mass.: Addison Wesley, 1981. Boehm, Barry, et al, 2000. Software Cost Estimation with Cocomo II, Boston, Mass.: Addison Wesley, 2000. Boehm, Barry W., T. E. Gray, and T. Seewaldt. 1984. "Prototyping…
…stuff: Boehm, Barry W., and Philip N. Papaccio. 1988. "Understanding and Controlling Software Costs." IEEE Transactions on Software Engineering SE-14, no. 10 (October): 1462-77. Boehm, Barry, 1981. Software Engineering Economics, Boston, Mass.: Addison Wesley, 1981. Boehm, Barry, et al, 2000. Software Cost Estimation with Cocomo II, Boston, Mass.: Addison Wesley, 2000. Boehm, Barry W., T. E. Gray, and T. Seewaldt. 1984. "Prototyping…
……这种方法哪怕在企业内部也经常被采用（我和 QA 一起工作过很多次，也干过 QA），而我手头 Cem Kaner 的《Testing Computer Software》似乎没有探讨这个问题。Boehm 的《Software Engineering Economics》在第 181 页（第 10 章：性能模型与成本效益模型）讨论了软件可靠性建模。IEEE 上有一篇《An efficient defect estimation method for software defect curves》，其中……
…method that's applied frequently even within organizations (I've worked in and with QA numerous times), and my copy of Cem Kaner's Testing Computer Software doesn't seem to address the matter. Boehm's Software Engineering Economics discusses software reliability modelling at page 181 (Chapter 10: Performance Models and Cost-Effectiveness Models). IEEE has "An efficient defect estimation method for software defect curves" which…
只要黏土选对了，你什么都能捏出来。流程只是二阶效应。团队（除非你单干，否则不是指个人）的能力才是王道。Boehm 几十年前在《Software Engineering Economics》里就指出过这一点。
With the right clay, you can make anything. Process is a second order effect. Team (not individual unless you work by yourself) competency rules. Boehm noted that in Software Engineering Economics many decades ago.