华尔街的扑克脸
The poker face of Wall Street
Aaron Brown · 初版 2006 年
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Wall Street是poker与现代金融——以及这些“博弈”背后的理论——迎头碰撞之所。在这两个世界中，真实的风险意味着转瞬之间便有真金白银进出得失，而两方在面对自身所承担的风险时也并非总能保持理性。因此，对于希望借助poker的洞见来提升自身工作表现的商业与金融专业人士而言，这本趣味横生的书堪称“必读之作”。对于试图借鉴Wall Street冒险者的洞识来建立自身优势的poker玩家来说，同样如此。
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Aaron Brown 写的《华尔街的扑克脸》。它把我本科时的很多概念和我的新工作串了起来，而且最棒的是还融合了德州扑克，扑克后来成了我对人生最重要的比喻之一。
The Poker Face of Wall Street by Aaron Brown Tied together a lot of concepts from my undergrad with my new work, and on top of it also Poker, which became one of my main analogies for life.
……1. 务必极其谨慎。当大难临头（shit hits the fan）、你最需要这种独立性的时候，所有相关性都会飙升到 1。与上面相关的另一点是，要认清这门生意的残酷本质。其实，读读 Aaron Brown 的《华尔街的扑克脸》可能会对此有所帮助。难点不在于大赚一笔；难点在于那之后，当你需要把别人的承诺变成真金白银并成功带走的时候。……
…1. Be very careful. When shit hits the fan and you need that independence most, all correlations go to 1. Related to the above, understand the cut-throat nature of the business. Actually, reading The Poker Face of Wall Street by Aaron Brown might help with this. The difficult part is not winning big; the difficult part comes after that, when you need to convert people's promises into money and successfully walk out with it.…
……我没记错的话大部分是宏观交易员。Ed Thorpe 的回忆录很擅长把某种数学思维和市场联系起来。最近出版的那本关于文艺复兴科技公司的书也棒极了。《华尔街的扑克脸》则是另一本讲博弈与市场联系的书。读这些能为你理解 Matt Levine 写的内容打下基础，他写的东西很赞但涉猎实在太广了……
…mostly macro traders IIRC. Ed Thorpe's memoirs are pretty good at tying a certain kind of mathematical thinking to the markets. The Renaissance Technologies book that recently came out is excellent too. Poker Face of Wall Street, another one of those about connections between games and markets. This would provide a grounding in being able to understand the kind of stuff Matt Levine writes, he writes good stuff but it's so diverse…
……并不是为了锁定价格（任何普通合同都能做到）或者套期保值（那些本该对冲的人根本不对冲），而是为了给大宗商品等创造一个隐性的贷款市场。- 《华尔街的扑克脸》：漫谈了博弈、金融工具投机与保险等事物之间的相似之处。- 《市场的（错误）行为》：Benoit Mandelbrot 总结了他的一些……
…about locking in prices (any regular contract can do that) or hedging (the people who supposedly would hedge don't) but about creating an implicit loan market for commodities, among other things. - The Poker Face of Wall Street: a wandering tale on the similarities between betting, speculation in financial instruments, and insurance, among other things. - The (Mis)Behaviour of Markets: Benoit Mandelbrot summarises some of his…
……《近代早期欧洲的夜晚历史》（http://amzn.to/zywusB）。我也开始读了《大空头》，但就是死活看不进去。如果你喜欢这类的书，那应该看看《华尔街的扑克脸》（http://amzn.to/zcbYHy）
…History of the Night in Early Modern Europe(http://amzn.to/zywusB). I started the Big Short too, but just couldn't really get into it. If you like things along that line then you should check out The Poker Face of Wall Street (http://amzn.to/zcbYHy)
……很常见。当人们只能做多时，就会有一种为了“参与其中”而买入的冲动，而且还有赢家诅咒（Winner's Curse）效应。我在 Aaron Brown 的《华尔街的扑克脸》中读到一个有趣的实验结果，涉及一种到期时价值为 0 美元或 20 美元的模拟证券，概率各为 50%。参与者拿到索引卡；半数卡片上写着证券的正确价值，另一半则是……
…common. When people can only go long, there's a desire to buy in order to be "participating", and there's also the effect of the Winner's Curse. One interesting result I read about in Aaron Brown's The Poker Face of Wall Street involved a mock security that would mature either to $0 or $20, with a 50% chance of each. The participants would be given index cards; half of the cards had the security's correct value, and half were…