《The Art of the Long View》- Peter Schwartz；Tom Kyte 写的任何一本书；《Pragmatic Thinking and Learning: Refactor Your Wetware》- Andy Hunt；《The Media Lab: Inventing the Future at M.I.T.》- Stewart Brand；《Extraordinary Popular Delusions…》
The Art of the Long View - Peter Schwartz Any book by Tom Kyte. Pragmatic Thinking and Learning: Refactor Your Wetware - Andy Hunt The Media Lab: Inventing the Future at M.I.T. - Stewart Brand Extraordinary Popular Delusions…
……各国的成功。《The Accidental Superpower》（Peter Zeihan 著），因为里面对地缘政治的见解很独到。卡尔·萨根的《Contact》，关于理论上如何与外星人沟通的绝佳好书。《The Art of the Long View》（Peter Schwartz 著），因为它在如何预测未来方面给过我建议。《China Coup》（Roger Garside 著），因为它是关于中国未来可能面临问题的一个很有意思的观点。
…success of countries. The Accidental Superpower by Peter Zeihan Because it has good opinion on geopolitics. Carl Sagan’s Contact Great book on theoretically communicating with aliens) The Art of the Long View by Peter Schwartz Because it have me advice on how to predict the future. China Coup by Roger Garside Because it is an interesting opinion on future problems China may have.
它们并不是最有趣的情景。总的来说我挺喜欢情景规划（scenario planning）的。全球商业网络（Global Business Network）[1] 以前在这个领域做出了非常出色的工作。《The Art of the Long View》是该领域的经典之作，这里有更多资源 [2] [1] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Global_Business_Network [2] https://thinkingfutures.net/scenario-planning-resources/
They aren't the most interesting scenarios. I'm quite a fan of scenario planning in general. The Global Business Network [1] used to do really good work in this area. The book "The Art of the Long View" is a classic book on the subject, and more resources here [2] [1] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Global_Business_Network [2] https://thinkingfutures.net/scenario-planning-resources/
……由 Stewart Brand 共同创立的战略预测组织，在 2013 年之前，GBN 的麾下聚集了许多顶尖的科幻和赛博朋克作家，如果我没记错的话，Gibson 和 Sterling 都在，但这些在《The Art of the Long View》一书里都有详述 https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Global_Business_Network
…strategic forecasting group cofounded by Steward Brand, GBN had many awesome sci fi and cyberpunk authors in its retinue until 2013, both Gibson and Sterling if I recall but it's all described in the book The Art of the Long View https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Global_Business_Network
《The Art of the Long View》- Peter Schwartz；Tom Kyte 写的任何一本书；《Pragmatic Thinking and Learning: Refactor Your Wetware》- Andy Hunt；《The Media Lab: Inventing the Future at M.I.T.》- Stewart Brand；《Extraordinary Popular Delusions…》
The Art of the Long View - Peter Schwartz Any book by Tom Kyte. Pragmatic Thinking and Learning: Refactor Your Wetware - Andy Hunt The Media Lab: Inventing the Future at M.I.T. - Stewart Brand Extraordinary Popular Delusions…
……各国的成功。《The Accidental Superpower》（Peter Zeihan 著），因为里面对地缘政治的见解很独到。卡尔·萨根的《Contact》，关于理论上如何与外星人沟通的绝佳好书。《The Art of the Long View》（Peter Schwartz 著），因为它在如何预测未来方面给过我建议。《China Coup》（Roger Garside 著），因为它是关于中国未来可能面临问题的一个很有意思的观点。
…success of countries. The Accidental Superpower by Peter Zeihan Because it has good opinion on geopolitics. Carl Sagan’s Contact Great book on theoretically communicating with aliens) The Art of the Long View by Peter Schwartz Because it have me advice on how to predict the future. China Coup by Roger Garside Because it is an interesting opinion on future problems China may have.
它们并不是最有趣的情景。总的来说我挺喜欢情景规划（scenario planning）的。全球商业网络（Global Business Network）[1] 以前在这个领域做出了非常出色的工作。《The Art of the Long View》是该领域的经典之作，这里有更多资源 [2] [1] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Global_Business_Network [2] https://thinkingfutures.net/scenario-planning-resources/
They aren't the most interesting scenarios. I'm quite a fan of scenario planning in general. The Global Business Network [1] used to do really good work in this area. The book "The Art of the Long View" is a classic book on the subject, and more resources here [2] [1] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Global_Business_Network [2] https://thinkingfutures.net/scenario-planning-resources/
多谢！非常好的提醒。我还记得他的那本《The Art of the Long View》。在无数场合中都帮过我大忙。
Thanks! Very nice reminder. I still remember his "The Art of the Long View" book. Helped me in numerous situations.
……由 Stewart Brand 共同创立的战略预测组织，在 2013 年之前，GBN 的麾下聚集了许多顶尖的科幻和赛博朋克作家，如果我没记错的话，Gibson 和 Sterling 都在，但这些在《The Art of the Long View》一书里都有详述 https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Global_Business_Network
…strategic forecasting group cofounded by Steward Brand, GBN had many awesome sci fi and cyberpunk authors in its retinue until 2013, both Gibson and Sterling if I recall but it's all described in the book The Art of the Long View https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Global_Business_Network