当预言失灵
When prophecy fails
Leon Festinger、Henry W. Riecken、Stanley Schachter · 初版 1956 年
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为什么值得读
- 详尽记录了信奉外星人末日预言团体的行为
- 首次提出并系统阐释了认知失调理论
- 揭示了预言落空后群体反而更坚定的心理机制
社会科学家通过观察一个预言世界末日的群体，来检验关于预言落空行为（prophetic-disconfirmation behavior）的假说。
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挺有意思的是，Leon Festinger 最初是在观察了末日狂热组织的行径后，才提出了认知失调理论。他的书《当预言落空》（When Prophecy Fails）引人入胜：书中研究了50年代的一个末日教派，该教派坚信外星人会在某个特定日期把他们从世界末日中拯救出来。信徒们全力以赴为末日做准备，变卖……
Interestingly enough, Leon Festinger first developed the theory of cognitive dissonance after looking at the behavior of doomsday cults. His book, When Prophecy Fails is fascinating: it looks at a doomsday cult in the 50s that believed aliens were going to rescue the cult from the world's end on a specific date. The members went all out preparing for the end, selling…
Leon Festinger、Hank Riecken 和 Stanley Schachter 合著的《当预言落空：对预测世界毁灭的现代群体的社会心理学研究》（When Prophecy Fails. A Social and Psychological Study of a Modern Group that Predicted the Destruction of the World）。我不知道它现在受不受欢迎，但绝对……
_When Prophecy Fails. A Social and Psychological Study of a Modern Group that Predicted the Destruction of the World_ by Leon Festinger, Hank Riecken, and Stanley Schachter. I have no idea if it's popular or not but it certainly…
呃，祝你好运吧。建议读读《当预言落空》，给自己打打预防针：搞不好2036年跟2026年大体上没啥两样，无非是垃圾信息和监控变得更多罢了。
Well, good luck with that. Consider reading When Prophecy Fails to steel yourself for the possibility that 2036 ends up largely the same as 2026, only with more spam and surveillance.
气候变化越是成为现实，否定论者的阴谋论就编得越离奇荒诞。有一本70年前的经典著作可以作为绝佳的入门读物：https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/When_Prophecy_Fails。在气候变化的议题上，他们先说“根本不存在”，等真发生了，反应依然遵循那一套社会机制。他们过去只骂科学家是危言耸听，后来骂是骗子，现在既然事实摆在眼前了……
The more real climate change becomes, the more fanciful and fantastic the deniers conspiracies get. There's a classic 70 year old book on this as a nice introduction https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/When_Prophecy_Fails In climate change's case, they say "it doesn't exist" and then it happens. It's the same social mechanisms regardless. They used to just call scientists alarmists, then fraudsters, and now that it's…
不知道 HN 上有多少人读过《当预言落空》，但据我理解它是一篇开山鼻祖级别的论著。如果你想找一本同一主题、更偏现代且更具可读性的书，可以看看 Diana Tumminia 写的《When Prophecy Never Fails: Myth and Reality in a Flying-Saucer Cult》……
IDK how many people on HN have read When Prophecy Fails, but it's a seminal paper as I understand it. If you want a more contemporary and readable book on the same topic, When Prophecy Never Fails: Myth and Reality in a Flying-Saucer Cult by Diana Tumminia…
民意调查就是披着占星术外衣的种族科学，至于你为什么永远无法在这点上说服任何人，书《当预言落空》里已经讲得很透彻了。我现在觉得他们的偏见只有少部分是出于意识形态，更多是源于一种利己的本能冲动：迎合那些最迷信民调的受众当下的信念，即……
Polls are astrological race science, and the reason you'll never be able to convince anyone of this is adequately covered by the book When Prophecy Fails. I've come to think that their bias is only slightly ideological, but instead springs more from a self-serving impulse to mirror the current beliefs of the audience most likely to believe in polls i.e.…