正常事故
Normal Accidents
Charles Perrow · 初版 1984 年
44人推荐
54位读者提及
117次提及
为什么值得读
- 以生动图解详述海事与航运事故
- 剖析复杂系统多重失效的非单一根因
- 揭示关键零部件缺失引发的连锁崩溃
“常态”事故（或系统事故）之所以被 Perrow 如此命名，是因为此类事故在极其复杂的系统中是不可避免的。鉴于所涉及系统的特性，尽管人们竭力避免，相互作用的多重故障仍会发生。Perrow 指出，操作失误是非常普遍的问题，许多故障与组织管理而非技术本身有关，而且重大事故几乎总是由极其微小的起因引发。此类事件起初看似微不足道，随后却不可预测地在系统中引发连锁反应，最终造成后果极其严重的重大事件。Pe
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……大多数人从未体验过的航运文化。查尔斯·佩罗（Charles Perrow）在《正常事故》（Normal Accidents）[1]这本神作中，用整整一个章节专门讨论了这类事故，描写得极其详尽，还配有令人捧腹的船只航行路线示意图。简而言之，超大型船只都是由一群极度自负的船长掌舵的，他们彼此之间大玩“胆小鬼博弈”（play chicken）——每个人都坚信自己拥有先行权（因为船只……
…shipping culture that most of us never experience. It is described in detail, with laugh-out-loud illustrations of boat paths, in an entire chapter devoted to these kind of accidents, in the excellent book _Normal Accidents_ by Charles Perrow.[1] In short, very, very large ships are captained by egomaniacal captains who play chicken with one another - each of whom is certain that they have the right of way (due to ship…
任何对这类故事感兴趣的人，我都强烈推荐查尔斯·佩罗的《正常事故》（Normal Accidents）——里面有一整章专门讲海难事故。
For anyone interested in stories like these, I highly recommend "Normal Accidents" by Charles Perrow - there's an entire chapter on maritime accidents.
这不是根因分析（root cause analysis）。复杂系统出故障的方式也是复杂的。如果你想多读读这方面的分析是怎么做的，可以看看《正常事故》（Perrow）、《人类差错》（Reason）……但你最终还是会落到《构建更安全的世界》（Engineering a Safer World，Leveson 著）上面。你可以从作者的网站上免费获取一份：http://sunnyday.mit.edu/safer-world/index.html……
Not root cause analysis. Complex systems fail in complex ways. If you want to read more about how this is done, try Normal Accidents (Perrow), Human Error (Reason)... but you're going to land on Engineering a Safer World (Leveson) eventually. You can get a free copy from the author's web site: http://sunnyday.mit.edu/safer-world/index.html…
……此外，如果我们的交换机挂了，随便找个手头闲置的傻瓜交换机就能立马换上。如果你读过事故失效分析——比如查尔斯·佩罗的神书《正常事故》（Normal Accidents）[1]里的那些案例——你就会发现很多情况下都是某个极其特殊的组件挂了，而他们又找不到替换件，结果全盘崩溃。所以，尽管我不能劝大家都去用傻瓜……
…Further, if our switch dies we can immediately replace it with any other dumb switch that just happens to be lying around. If you read failure studies - like those in the excellent Charles Perrow book _Normal Accidents_[1] - you see that in many cases there is a very special component that fails and everything goes to hell when they can't find a replacement for it. So, while I can't encourage everyone to use dumb,…
……还有溃坝、印度博帕尔联合碳化物工厂的灾难。你无法通过工程手段消除人性。这不是那种存在技术解决方案的根因（root cause）。我极力推荐查尔斯·佩罗的《正常事故》（Normal Accidents）和《下一次大灾难》（The Next Catastrophe）。以及他的其他著作。顺便提一句，里科弗（Rickover）其实也曾后悔我们当初走上了核能这条路。他为自己的选择辩护是因为当时别无选择，但他原本更希望看到……
…and dam bursts, the Union Carbide Bhopal, India, disaster. You cannot engineer out human nature. This isn't a root cause for which there are technical solutions. I hugely recommend Charles Perrow's Normal Accidents and The Next Catastrophe. As well as other writings. Note that Rickover also wished we'd never gone to the nuclear option. He defended his choice for lack of options, but would have preferred to see…
……成本会更高。[1][2] 这类评论的标准结尾通常都是推荐塔勒布的《黑天鹅》和《反脆弱》……这些书你当然该读……但更重要的是查尔斯·佩罗的《正常事故》（Normal Accidents）[3]，我希望它能说服你：不要再去寻找那种永远不会坏的复杂系统，而是去寻找即使坏了也能优雅降级（fail gracefully）的简单系统。[1] ……不过我们有 HN 读者专属优惠……
…it will be more expensive.[1][2] The standard closure to a comment like this is to refer to Talebs Black Swan and Antifragile books ... which you certainly should read ... but even more important is "Normal Accidents" by Charles Perrow[3] which I hope will convince you to stop looking for complex things that never fail, and instead look for simple things that fail gracefully. [1] ... but we have a HN-Readers discount…