大国的兴衰
The Rise and Fall of the Great Powers
Paul M. Kennedy · 初版 1987 年
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为什么值得读
- 深入阐释欧洲因去中心化而崛起的逻辑
- 叙事引人入胜，适合业余历史爱好者
- 对大国权力和财富消长的分析令人着迷
著名历史学家 Paul Kennedy 分析并阐述了过去五个世纪以来大国的兴衰。一个国家根据其经济资源投射其军事力量，但维持军事霸权的高昂代价却使其加速走向衰落。处于危机中的大国往往通过增加国防开支来应对，却因挪用生产性资源而削弱了自身。纵观历史，生产能力与军事力量之间一直存在着显著的关联。这是一部理解当今世界十字路口的必读力作。
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强烈推荐：保罗·肯尼迪的《大国的兴衰》（Rise and Fall of the Great Powers）——http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Rise_and_Fall_of_the_Great_... 你关于西班牙人的观点完全正确，但说哈布斯堡王朝可能更贴切，因为我们真正讨论的是……
Highly recommended: Rise and Fall of the Great Powers (Paul Kennedy) - http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Rise_and_Fall_of_the_Great_... You're absolutely right about the Spanish, but it would be more appropriate to say the Hapsburgs, because what we're really…
我也读过肯尼迪的《大国的兴衰》（好书）。不过当人人都拥有核武器、或者能相对容易地搞到核武器时，很难说这种大国“模型”还能如何适用。
I've read Kennedy's The Rise and Fall of the Great Powers too (good book). However it's hard to see how the Great Powers "model" applies when everyone has nuclear weapons or can acquire them relatively easily.
……印度曾经富得极其夸张、令人瞠目……就像把西班牙人从美洲搜刮走（又在中国挥霍掉）的所有金银加在一起都还有富余。《无政府状态》（The Anarchy）和肯尼迪的《大国的兴衰》对于业余历史爱好者来说都是极佳的读物。
…that India was fabulously, spectacularly wealthy… like all of the gold and silver (taken and squandered in China by the Spanish) from the Americas plus some to spare. "The Anarchy" and Kennedy's "The Rise and Fall of the Great Powers" make for great reading for the armchair historian.
我挺赞同的。我上学那会儿一直讨厌历史，但偶然淘到一本保罗·肯尼迪的《大国的兴衰》，一下子就彻底看入迷了。刚拿起来读时觉得有点超出我的水平，但我总忍不住一遍遍翻回去看。
I kind of agree. I hated History all through school but I found a copy of Paul Kennedy's "The Rise and Fall of the Great Powers" I all of a sudden found myself engrossed by it. It was a bit above my level when I first picked it up but I kept going back to it.
从另一个角度来看，保罗·肯尼迪的《大国的兴衰》是一本关于去中心化好处的引人入胜的读物。其前提是：在16世纪，根本没人会想到欧洲能成为下一个超级大国。当时占统治地位的文明是……
On the flip side, Paul Kennedy's "The Rise and Fall of the Great Powers" is a fascinating read on the benefits of decentralization. The premise is that in the 1500s, no one thought Europe was going to be the next great power. The dominant civilizations at the time were the…
去看看保罗·肯尼迪的《大国的兴衰》吧，书中关于民族国家与政治经济学博弈的视角非常独到。他的核心论点是：随着新兴力量利用新技术（尤其是能源技术），统治性大国开始崛起……
Check out Paul Kennedy's "The Rise and Fall of the Great Powers" for an interesting take on this dynamic for nation-states and political economies. His core thesis is that dominant powers rise as new players leverage new technologies (especially energy technologies),…