《边缘之上》封面

边缘之上

On the Edge

Nate Silver · 初版 2024 年

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一些人——包括扑克玩家、对冲基金经理和风险投资家——如何分析和驾驭风险,以及为什么这很重要。

Hacker News 上怎么说

  • 《On the Edge: the Spectacular Rise and Fall of Commodore》(http://bit.ly/11KMaT Amazon)。Commodore 在计算史上有点被忽视了,但他们是第一家销量破百万台的公司。这本书……

    On the Edge: the Spectacular Rise and Fall of Commodore (http://bit.ly/11KMaT Amazon). Commodore has been kind of ignored in computing history, but they were the first company to sell 1 million units. This book…

  • 我只有时间听有声书,所以希望这个书单不会太基础。《On the Edge: The Art of Risking Everything》,Nate Silver 著。《The End of Reality: How Four Billionaires Are Selling a Fantasy Future of the Metaverse, Mars, and Crypto》,Jonathan Taplin 著。《The Value of Others》,Orion 著……

    I only have time to listen to audiobooks so I hope this list is not too basic. On the Edge: The Art of Risking Everything by Nate Silver The End of Reality: How Four Billionaires Are Selling a Fantasy Future of the Metaverse, Mars, and Crypto by Jonathan Taplin The Value of Others by Orion…

  • ……贫困的非洲。https://www.goodreads.com/book/show/36260719-dictatorland 《Magic Pill》—— Johann Hari —— 讲的是司美格鲁肽以及人们是怎么变胖的。https://www.goodreads.com/book/show/201319612-magic-pill 《On the Edge》—— Nate Silver —— 讲的是用风险和期望值的视角看世界如何行得通。https://www.goodreads.com/book/show/204236707-on-the-edge 《Orbital》—— Samantha Harvey —— 布克奖得主,讲的是……

    …impoverished Africa. https://www.goodreads.com/book/show/36260719-dictatorland Magic Pill - Johann Hari - About Semaglutide and how people got fat. https://www.goodreads.com/book/show/201319612-magic-pill On the Edge - Nate Silver - About how seeing the world in terms of risk and expected value can work. https://www.goodreads.com/book/show/204236707-on-the-edge Orbital - Samantha Harvey - Booker Prize winner about…

  • ……估计值。同样,我们只有 50 到 60 个可能发生核交换的年份样本,样本量相当小,但我们仍然能得到一个带噪声的估计。不过我还没读过《On the Edge》,所以不清楚 Silver 在这里具体是怎么做的。>> 这正是要表达的重点。> 是吗?我觉得他们的意思是,人们发明的所有用来防止核战争的方案,以及那些……

    …estimate. Similarly, we only have a 50-60 samples of years in which it was possible to have a nuclear exchange, so a fairly small sample size, but we can still get a noisey estimate. But I haven't read On The Edge yet, so I don't know exactly what Silver does here. >> This is kind of the point being made. > Was it? I think they meant that all of the solutions people invented to prevent nuclear war and which…

  • 我当时在读 Nate Silver 的《On the Edge》,里面有一段很有意思,他拿二战刚结束时的核武器使用预测,跟根据实际情况做贝叶斯预测会得到的结果做比较……

    I was reading Nate Silver's book "On The Edge" and there is an interesting part where he takes predictions on the usage of nuclear weapons taken from just after World War 2 and compares them to what the Bayesian prediction would be given what actually…

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