浪潮将至
The Coming Wave
Mustafa Suleyman · 初版 2023 年
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不久的将来，你将生活在 AI 的包围之中。它们会规划你的生活、运转你的企业，并操盘核心政府公共服务。你将身处一个由 DNA 打印机与量子计算机、工程改造病原体与自主武器、机器人助手以及取之不尽的能源构成的世界。我们对此都毫无准备。作为开创性 AI 公司 DeepMind（现隶属于 Google）的联合创始人，Mustafa Suleyman 始终处于这场变革的风暴中心。他认为，即将到来的这十年将由这股迅猛扩张且力量惊人的新技术浪潮所定义。在《The Coming Wave》一书中，Suleyman 揭示了这些力量将如何
Hacker News 上怎么说
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……Pedro Domingo 写的《终极算法：机器学习和人工智能如何重塑世界》。新书速递（2023年出版的书籍）：李飞飞的《我看见的世界：AI 黎明时分的好奇、探索与发现》；Mustafa Suleyman 和 Michael Bhaskar 合著的《大浪将至》（The Coming Wave）；Simon J. D. Prince 的《深入理解深度学习》。人工智能与机器学习史：Jack Copeland 和 Jonathan Bowen 编写的《图灵指南》……
…Ultimate Learning Machine Will Remake Our World by Pedro Domingo Fresh look (books published in 2023) - The Worlds I See: Curiosity, Exploration, and Discovery at the Dawn of AI by Fei-Fei Li - The Coming Wave by Mustafa Suleyman and Michael Bhaskar - Understanding Deep Learning by Simon J. D. Prince History of Artificial Intelligence and Machine Learning - The Turing Guide by Jack Copeland, Jonathan Bowen,…
这出自该出版物题为“图书专访/人工智能（AI）”的部分（这本书就是《大浪将至》：“这只是 AI 充满阳光的前景的一面；在与研究员 Michael Bhaskar 合著的这本带有些许不祥书名的新书《大浪将至》中，Suleyman 关注的重点很大程度上是其阴暗面。”）……
It's from the section of the publication that is entitled: "Books interview/Artificial intelligence (AI)" (the book is The Coming Wave: "This is one aspect of the sunlit uplands of AI; the shadow side is largely what preoccupies Suleyman in his new book, written with the researcher Michael Bhaskar and ominously titled The Coming Wave.").…
Goodreads 上有一篇很有意思的批判性书评：https://www.goodreads.com/book/show/90590134-the-coming-wave >... >鉴于《大浪将至》预设技术发展是呈波浪式推进的，而这些浪潮是由圈内人推动的，因此它提出的解决方案是遏制——政府应当（通过监管）来决定……
Interesting critical review at: https://www.goodreads.com/book/show/90590134-the-coming-wave >... >Given that The coming wave assumes that technology comes in waves and these waves are driven by the insiders, the solution it proposes is containment—governments should determine (via regulation)…
……管理细节的干货少之又少。一位曾在 Google 和 Stripe 担任高管的作者，提供了一份实用的全方位指南，内容涵盖从给反馈、放权到主持会议和团队建设。 Mustafa Suleyman 与 Michael Bhaskar 合著的《大浪将至》（The Coming Wave）。Crown 出版；352 页；定价 32.50 美元。Bodley Head 出版；定价 32.50 美元。深入剖析了 AI 变革经济与社会的巨大潜力，同时也探讨了被滥用的风险以及……
…bolts of management are vanishingly rare. A former executive at Google and Stripe offers a practical guide to everything from giving feedback and delegating to running a meeting and building teams. The Coming Wave. By Mustafa Suleyman, with Michael Bhaskar. Crown; 352 pages; $32.50. Bodley Head; $32.50 A cogent look at the potential of ai to transform the economy and society, along with the risks of misuse and…
……（单台）机器在每项认知任务上都能超越顶尖人类。这和 OpenAI 的定义截然不同（……等我们赚够了 $$$$$，它就是 AGI 了）。Suleyman 在《大浪将至》一书中提到了“人工胜任智能”（Artificial Capable Intelligence, ACI）——介于如今的 LLM（也就是目前的“AI”）与 AGI 之间。这类 AI 系统能在多个领域处理大量复杂任务，但还算不上完全通用的。……
…(single) machine can perform every cognitive task better than the best humans. That is significantly different from OpenAIs definition (...when we make enough $$$$$, it's AGI). Suleyman's book "The Coming Wave" talks about Artificial Capable Intelligence (ACI) - between today's LLMs (== "AI" now) and AGI. AI systems capable of handling a lot of complex tasks across various domains, yet not being fully general.…
这基本上就是 Suleyman 在《大浪将至》中所描述的、我们为了遏制 AI 风险必须采取的措施之一。而 Dario 没提到的是，权力集中在少数几个国家或公司手里本身也是一种风险。
It is pretty much what Suleyman describes in The Coming Wave as one of the measures we need to take to contain the risks of AI. What Dario does not mention is that concentration in a few states or companies also poses a risk.