> 关于这个话题有本好书叫《与天为敌：风险的奇妙故事》（Against the Gods: The Remarkable Story of Risk）。我倒不推荐那本。我更推荐读约翰·梅纳德·凯恩斯的《概率论》（A Treatise on Probability）……和他大部分著作一样，见解深刻且充满天才构想。https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/A_Treatise_on_Probability 《随机漫步的傻瓜》里有些部分也很有启发性（在它…之前）
> A good book on the topic is "Against the Gods: The Remarkable Story of Risk". I wouldn't recommend that book. I would rather recommend reading A Treatise on Probability by John Maynard Keynes... which is insightful and genius like most of his work. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/A_Treatise_on_Probability Some parts of Fooled by Randomness are also insightful (before…
你可以从古腾堡计划下载约翰·梅纳德·凯恩斯的《概率论》（A Treatise on Probability）http://www.gutenberg.org/ebooks/32625 虽说我也同意前面提到的拉普拉斯那本书很棒。
You can download A Treatise on Probability by John Maynard Keynes from Guttenberg http://www.gutenberg.org/ebooks/32625 Although I agree on the Laplace book mentioned already as well.
有些成熟的概率理论跟遍历性（ergodicity）根本没半毛钱关系。比如看看这些：拉普拉斯 - 《概率的分析理论》（Théorie analytique des probabilités） - 1812年 凯恩斯 - 《概率论》（A Treatise on Probability） - 1921年 杰弗里斯 - 《概率论》（Theory of Probability） - 1939年 萨维奇 - 《统计学基础》（The Foundations of Statistics） - 1954年 德·菲内蒂 - 《概率论》（Teoria delle Probabilità） - 1970年
There are established theories of probability that have nothing to do with ergodicity. See for example: Laplace - Théorie analytique des probabilités - 1812 Keynes - A Treatise on Probability - 1921 Jeffreys - Theory of Probability - 1939 Savage - The Foundations of Statistics - 1954 de Finetti - Teoria delle Probabilità - 1970
…philosophy of probability here is the review: https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=2927587 "An Examination of the Fundamental Reasons Why Frank Ramsey Failed in His Reviews of J M Keynes's a Treatise on Probability"
> 关于这个话题有本好书叫《与天为敌：风险的奇妙故事》（Against the Gods: The Remarkable Story of Risk）。我倒不推荐那本。我更推荐读约翰·梅纳德·凯恩斯的《概率论》（A Treatise on Probability）……和他大部分著作一样，见解深刻且充满天才构想。https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/A_Treatise_on_Probability 《随机漫步的傻瓜》里有些部分也很有启发性（在它…之前）
> A good book on the topic is "Against the Gods: The Remarkable Story of Risk". I wouldn't recommend that book. I would rather recommend reading A Treatise on Probability by John Maynard Keynes... which is insightful and genius like most of his work. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/A_Treatise_on_Probability Some parts of Fooled by Randomness are also insightful (before…
你可以从古腾堡计划下载约翰·梅纳德·凯恩斯的《概率论》（A Treatise on Probability）http://www.gutenberg.org/ebooks/32625 虽说我也同意前面提到的拉普拉斯那本书很棒。
You can download A Treatise on Probability by John Maynard Keynes from Guttenberg http://www.gutenberg.org/ebooks/32625 Although I agree on the Laplace book mentioned already as well.
有些成熟的概率理论跟遍历性（ergodicity）根本没半毛钱关系。比如看看这些：拉普拉斯 - 《概率的分析理论》（Théorie analytique des probabilités） - 1812年 凯恩斯 - 《概率论》（A Treatise on Probability） - 1921年 杰弗里斯 - 《概率论》（Theory of Probability） - 1939年 萨维奇 - 《统计学基础》（The Foundations of Statistics） - 1954年 德·菲内蒂 - 《概率论》（Teoria delle Probabilità） - 1970年
There are established theories of probability that have nothing to do with ergodicity. See for example: Laplace - Théorie analytique des probabilités - 1812 Keynes - A Treatise on Probability - 1921 Jeffreys - Theory of Probability - 1939 Savage - The Foundations of Statistics - 1954 de Finetti - Teoria delle Probabilità - 1970
…概率哲学的书评，链接在此：https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=2927587 《论弗兰克·拉姆齐在评论 J·M·凯恩斯〈概率论〉时未能切中要害的根本原因探讨》
…philosophy of probability here is the review: https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=2927587 "An Examination of the Fundamental Reasons Why Frank Ramsey Failed in His Reviews of J M Keynes's a Treatise on Probability"