黑天鹅
The Black Swan
Nassim Nicholas Taleb · 初版 2007 年
261人推荐
666位读者提及
862次提及
为什么值得读
- 剖析具有毁灭性后果的小概率罕见事件
- 促使读者重新审视不确定性与思考方式
- 观点极具启发性并改变对世界的看法
出自备受赞誉的Fooled by Randomness作者之手，这是一本探讨极不可能发生之事件对生活方方面面产生深远影响的著作。
Hacker News 上怎么说
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The Black Swan
Nassim Nicholas Taleb · 初版 2007 年
出自备受赞誉的Fooled by Randomness作者之手，这是一本探讨极不可能发生之事件对生活方方面面产生深远影响的著作。
正在加载完整评论……
……后来读的那些和这本略有相关的书，因为它们都探讨了人类的思考方式。巴里·施瓦茨 - 《选择的悖论》；史蒂芬·平克 - 《心智探奇》；纳西姆·塔勒布 - 《黑天鹅》以及《随机漫步的傻瓜》；伦纳德·姆洛迪诺夫 - 《醉汉的脚步》（和《随机漫步的傻瓜》很像）；卡罗尔·德韦克 - 《终身成长》；尼尔·波兹曼 / 安德鲁·波兹曼 - 《娱乐至死》……
…read later that were loosely related to this one in the way that they all refer to the way people think. Barry Schwartz - The Paradox of Choice Steven Pinker - How the Mind Works Nassim Taleb - The Black Swan; and Fooled by Randomness Leonard Mlodinov - The Drunkard's Walk (quite similar to Fooled by Randomness) Carol Dweck - Mindset: The New Psychology of Success Neil Postman / Andrew Postman - Amusing…
我非常喜欢他的书，尤其是《黑天鹅》和《反脆弱》，不过在我看来，他似乎搞起了一套作坊式量产，把同一个大概念换汤不换药地写成了一连串极为相似的书。但话又说回来，只要他还有……
I really appreciate his books, The Black Swan and Antifragile particularly, though it does seem to me he's set up something of a cottage industry churning the same general idea into a sequence of very similar books. Then again, as long as he has…
……《就业、利息和货币通论》；马克思 - 《资本论》；本杰明·格雷厄姆 - 《聪明的投资者》；加尔布雷思 - 《丰裕社会》；加尔布雷思 - 《大崩盘》；米尔顿·弗里德曼 - 《资本主义与自由》；纳西姆·塔勒布 - 《黑天鹅》；罗恩·苏斯金德 - 《信心人》；斯科特·帕特森 - 《暗池》。之后如果你想深入研究非主流经济学，可以从下面这些开始：哈耶克 - 《个人主义与经济秩序》；米塞斯 - 《人的行为》……
…Interest and Money Marx - Capital Benjamin Graham - The Intelligent Investor Galbraith - The Affluent Society Galbraith - The Great Crash Milton Friedman - Capitalism and Freedom Nassim Taleb - Black Swan Ron Suskind - Confidence Men Scott Patterson - Dark Pools If you want to delve into heterodox economics afterward, start with the following: Hayek - Individualism and Economic Order Mises - Human…
……过去几年里，Jerry 的书对我的思维产生了极大的影响。我强烈建议你能找得到的都去读读。--- 作者：纳西姆·塔勒布，书目：* 《黑天鹅》 * 《随机漫步的傻瓜》。塔勒布改变了我看世界的方式。他的书读起来很过瘾，思想也很发人深省。接下来的时间里我会继续读完他的其他书……
…Jerry's books have had a tremendous amount of impact on my thinking in the past couple years. I highly recommend reading everything you can get your hands on. --- Author: Nassim Taleb Books: * The Black Swan * Fooled by Randomness Taleb has changed my way of looking at the world. His books are enjoyable to read, and his ideas thought provoking. I will continue to read the rest of his books over the next…
……菲利普·泰特洛克的《超预测：预测的艺术与科学》。一项关于预测未来事件（主要是地缘政治）能力高于常人的群体的研究。探讨了如何衡量预测并加以改进。- 纳西姆·尼古拉斯·塔勒布的《黑天鹅》。一本神作，讲的是人们总以“不太可能发生”为借口，忽视那些会造成灾难性后果的罕见事件。
…Science of Prediction by Tetlock, Philip E. A study on people with above average ability to forecast feature events (mostly geo-political). Talks about measuring predictions and improving them. - The Black Swan by Nassim Nicholas Taleb. Brilliant book about overlooking rare events which have dramatic consequences because 'it's unlikely to happen'.
……正在滑向危险的边缘（看看过去几年的新闻就知道）。考虑到这一点，我觉得汉斯·罗斯林的《事实》绝对是__必读__。一旦你理清了事实，下一步的好选择就是纳西姆·尼古拉斯·塔勒布的《黑天鹅》和《反脆弱》，尽管他对技术人员有些冷嘲热讽（某种程度上也挺在理）。给自己备忘：得把《非对称风险》（Skin in the Game）找来看看。关于斯皮瓦克（Spivak），我完全赞同你的看法，因为……
…dangerous slope(looking at the news over the last few years). And with that in mind, "Factfulness" by Hans Rosling is a __MUST__ imo. Once you wrap your head around the facts, a next good choice is "The Black Swan" and "Antifragile" by Nassim Nicholas Taleb, despite some (to a certain extent justified) bashing on tech people. Note to self: need to pick up "Skin in the Game". Completely with you about Spivak, as…