第四转折
The fourth turning
William Strauss、Neil Howe · 初版 1996 年
15人推荐
38位读者提及
42次提及
为什么值得读
- 详尽论证历史世代周期的四大原型特征
- 剖析危机与困境如何推动社会快速演变
- 为理解美国历史走向提供独特的周期视角
首先是战后的高潮期（High），接着是六七十年代的觉醒期（Awakening），如今是解体期（Unraveling）。这本大胆而发人深省的著作为我们揭示了下个世纪初即将到来的景象。你为 Fourth Turning 做好准备了吗？Strauss 和 Howe 将改变你看待世界以及自身定位的方式。在 The Fourth Turning 中，他们将自己的世代理论应用于历史周期，指出美国正处于解体期之中，处于危机边缘。你如何为这场危机——即 Fourth Turning——做准备，与你所处世代的情绪和态度密切相关
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……非常有见地，这让我想起了罗恩·苏斯金德（Ron Suskind）关于乔治·W·布什“基于信仰”的总统任期的《毫无疑问》（Without a Doubt）。我认为斯特劳斯和豪（Strauss and Howe）的历史周期模型（见《世代》Generations、《第四次转折》The Fourth Turning）相当准确。第三次转折的特征是混乱、社会经济停滞/倒退以及猖獗的不平等；第四次转折则是危机、艰难困苦和快速的社会演进。上一次……
…really great insight, and it reminds me of Ron Suskind's "Without a Doubt", on the "faith-based" presidency of George W. Bush. I think the Strauss and Howe model of cyclical history (see: Generations, The Fourth Turning) is fairly accurate. Third Turnings are characterized by confusion, socioeconomic stagnation/reversion, and rampant inequality; Fourth Turnings, by crisis, hardship and rapid social evolution. The last…
我推荐读读威廉·斯特劳斯（William Strauss）和尼尔·豪（Neil Howe）的书《第四次转折：美国的预言——历史周期告诉我们美国的下一场命运之约》（The Fourth Turning: An American Prophecy - What the Cycles of History Tell Us About America's Next Rendezvous with Destiny）[1]。这本书介绍了世代周期的概念[2]。根据该理论，历史……
I recommend reading William Strauss and Neil Howe's book The Fourth Turning: An American Prophecy - What the Cycles of History Tell Us About America's Next Rendezvous with Destiny [1]. The book introduces the idea of generational cycles [2] According to the theory, historical…
……时代。X世代在很多方面可能与最伟大的一代（Greatest Generation）旗鼓相当，而Y世代/千禧一代现在评判还为时过早，但肯定看起来比婴儿潮一代要好。斯特劳斯和豪的书《世代》（Generations）或《第四次转折》（Fourth Turning）看起来相当合理。(http://www.timepage.org/time.html) 虽然我可能不会去按“抹掉婴儿潮一代”的按钮（也许会按吧……），但这样基本能解决美国的所有主要问题。他们的……
…time. Gen X was probably on par with the Greatest Generation in many ways, and Gen Y/Mill are too soon to tell, but certainly appear better than Baby Boomers. Strauss and Howe's book "Generations" or "Fourth Turning" seems pretty reasonable. (http://www.timepage.org/time.html) While I might not push the "redact the boomers" button (maybe...), it would pretty much fix all of the major problems in the US. Their…
抱歉，用手机打字所以长话短说。任何认为世代标签和相关刻板印象毫无意义的人，都该读读威廉·斯特劳斯和尼尔·豪写的那本很棒的书《第四次转折》（The Fourth Turning）。该书论据非常扎实且极具说服力地论述了：每一代人都是由其所处时代的事件塑造的，并且会呈现出四种原型之一的特征：先知（prophet）、游牧者（nomad）、英雄（hero）和……
Sorry, typing from my phone so this will be short. Anyone who thinks generational labels and associated stereotypes are meaningless needs to read William Strauss and Neil Howe's excellent book, titled The Fourth Turning. It makes a very well-documented and compelling case that every generation is defined by the events of their era, and they take on the characteristics of one of four archetypes: prophet, nomad, hero and…
……美国的国祚。去读读彼得·图尔钦（Peter Turchin）的《战争与和平与战争》（War and Peace and War，一两周前这里讨论过），特别是注意他关于多个帝国民族无法在一个国家共存的部分……《第四次转折》（The Fourth Turning）——关于代际往往会陷入的模式——可能也会很有趣。
…US's longevity. Read Peter Turchin, War and Peace and War (discussed here a week or two ago), particularly noting his part about how multiple imperial peoples can't coexist in a single country... The Fourth Turning -- on the patterns that generations tend to fall into -- might also be interesting.
……其一，他们会寻求政府的强力领导。当然，人口结构的变化既会创造商业机会，也会毁灭商业机会。斯特劳斯和豪的书《世代》（Generations）和《第四次转折》（The Fourth Turning）对此做出了很多有趣的观察（和预测）。
…one thing, they'll seek strong leadership from government. And of course, the changing demographic will both create and destroy business opportunities. Strauss 7 Howe's books _Generations_ and _The Fourth Turning_ make a lot of interesting observations (and predictions) about this.