我把文章通读了整整两遍才去看署名。看到她的名字时我很吃惊。不过我觉得这些现象之间联系非常紧密。Adam Kucharski 的新书《The Rules of Contagion》看起来也会是该类型下一个很有意思的补充：https://oxfordliteraryfestival.org/literature-events/2020/ap...
I read through the article, twice, before checking the byline. I was suprised to see her name. Though I think the phenomena are closely related. Adam Kucharski's new book, The Rules of Contagion looks like it will be an interesting addition to the genre as well: https://oxfordliteraryfestival.org/literature-events/2020/ap...
……增长了大约 100 倍，不过这很可能表明对之前隐秘（未检出）病例的监测和筛查力度加大了，而不是实际的真实增长率（ground-truth growth rate）。《The Rules of Contagion》的作者 Adam Kucharski 也提出了类似的逻辑。https://www.nytimes.com/2020/03/05/health/coronavirus-deaths... 他的书（在美国尚未上架）：https://www.worldcat.org/title/rules-of-contagion-why-things... 我会……
…increasing at about 100x, though that likely indicates increased monitoring and detection of previously cryptic (undetected) cases, not the actual ground-truth growth rate. Adam Kucharski, author of The Rules of Contagion offers a similar logic. https://www.nytimes.com/2020/03/05/health/coronavirus-deaths... His book (not yet available in the US): https://www.worldcat.org/title/rules-of-contagion-why-things... I'd…
……3. 我强烈推荐 Kyle Harper 的《罗马的命运》（The Fates of Rome），该书探讨了罗马帝国及其前所未有的城市化和广泛的商业往来（包括与中国的贸易）中的这一问题。Adam Kucharski 即将在美国出版、2020 年在英国出版的《传染的规则》（The Rules of Contagion），也探讨了类似的概念。
…3. I highly recommend Kyle Harper's The Fates of Rome, which explores this for the Roman empire and its unprecedented urbanisations and wide-ranging commerce, including to China. Adam Kucharski's The Rules of Contagion, forthcoming in the US, published 2020 in the UK, looks at similar concepts.
……书架上放了 20 多年，我现在开始认真读起来了。我的待读和重读清单上还有：Steven Johnson 的《幽灵地图》（The Ghost Map）、David Quammen 的《溢出》（Spillover）、John Barry 的《大流感》（The Great Influenza）、Adam Kucharski 的《传染的规则》（The Rules of Contagion）、Lewis、Petrovskii、Potts 的《生物入侵背后的数学》（The Mathematics Behind Biological Invasions）、阿尔贝·加缪的《鼠疫》（The Plague）、丹尼尔·笛福的《大疫年日记》（A Journal of the Plague Year）
…bookshelf for over 2 decades, I’ve started reading it in earnest. I also have on my read and reread pile: The Ghost Map by Steven Johnson Spillover by David Quammen The Great Influenza by John Barry The Rules of Contagion by Adam Kucharski The Mathematics Behind Biological Invasions by Lewis, Petrovskii, Potts The Plague by Albert Camus A Journal of the Plague Year by Daniel Defoe
我把文章通读了整整两遍才去看署名。看到她的名字时我很吃惊。不过我觉得这些现象之间联系非常紧密。Adam Kucharski 的新书《The Rules of Contagion》看起来也会是该类型下一个很有意思的补充：https://oxfordliteraryfestival.org/literature-events/2020/ap...
I read through the article, twice, before checking the byline. I was suprised to see her name. Though I think the phenomena are closely related. Adam Kucharski's new book, The Rules of Contagion looks like it will be an interesting addition to the genre as well: https://oxfordliteraryfestival.org/literature-events/2020/ap...
……增长了大约 100 倍，不过这很可能表明对之前隐秘（未检出）病例的监测和筛查力度加大了，而不是实际的真实增长率（ground-truth growth rate）。《The Rules of Contagion》的作者 Adam Kucharski 也提出了类似的逻辑。https://www.nytimes.com/2020/03/05/health/coronavirus-deaths... 他的书（在美国尚未上架）：https://www.worldcat.org/title/rules-of-contagion-why-things... 我会……
…increasing at about 100x, though that likely indicates increased monitoring and detection of previously cryptic (undetected) cases, not the actual ground-truth growth rate. Adam Kucharski, author of The Rules of Contagion offers a similar logic. https://www.nytimes.com/2020/03/05/health/coronavirus-deaths... His book (not yet available in the US): https://www.worldcat.org/title/rules-of-contagion-why-things... I'd…
……3. 我强烈推荐 Kyle Harper 的《罗马的命运》（The Fates of Rome），该书探讨了罗马帝国及其前所未有的城市化和广泛的商业往来（包括与中国的贸易）中的这一问题。Adam Kucharski 即将在美国出版、2020 年在英国出版的《传染的规则》（The Rules of Contagion），也探讨了类似的概念。
…3. I highly recommend Kyle Harper's The Fates of Rome, which explores this for the Roman empire and its unprecedented urbanisations and wide-ranging commerce, including to China. Adam Kucharski's The Rules of Contagion, forthcoming in the US, published 2020 in the UK, looks at similar concepts.
……书架上放了 20 多年，我现在开始认真读起来了。我的待读和重读清单上还有：Steven Johnson 的《幽灵地图》（The Ghost Map）、David Quammen 的《溢出》（Spillover）、John Barry 的《大流感》（The Great Influenza）、Adam Kucharski 的《传染的规则》（The Rules of Contagion）、Lewis、Petrovskii、Potts 的《生物入侵背后的数学》（The Mathematics Behind Biological Invasions）、阿尔贝·加缪的《鼠疫》（The Plague）、丹尼尔·笛福的《大疫年日记》（A Journal of the Plague Year）
…bookshelf for over 2 decades, I’ve started reading it in earnest. I also have on my read and reread pile: The Ghost Map by Steven Johnson Spillover by David Quammen The Great Influenza by John Barry The Rules of Contagion by Adam Kucharski The Mathematics Behind Biological Invasions by Lewis, Petrovskii, Potts The Plague by Albert Camus A Journal of the Plague Year by Daniel Defoe