伯努利的谬误
Bernoulli's Fallacy
Aubrey Clayton · 初版 2021 年
4人推荐
7位读者提及
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整个实验科学所使用的统计方法中存在着一个逻辑缺陷。这一缺陷绝非微不足道的学术争论：它是如今威胁整个学科体系的 reproducibility crisis 的根源。在一个日益依赖统计的社会中，正是这一根深蒂固的错误塑造着医学、法律和公共政策方面的决策，并带来了深远后果。问题的根源在于对概率及其在根据观测进行推断中所起作用的误解。Aubrey Clayton 追溯了统计学如何走入歧途的历史，从17……开创性工作讲起。
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Aubrey Clayton 写的《Bernoulli’s Fallacy》对这个主题以及频率学派统计学的缺陷给出了非常出色的剖析。
Bernoulli’s Fallacy by Aubrey Clayton is a good treatment of this subject and where frequentist statistics fails.
……‘有两个孩子。其中至少有一个是男孩。两个孩子都是男孩的概率是多少？’答案可能是 2/3 而不是 1/2。这个问题争议很大。我是通过 Aubrey Clayton 的《Bernoulli's Fallacy》（https://www.goodreads.com/book/show/55825328-bernoulli-s-fal...）才知道这个悖论的，我挺推荐一读的，很有意思。
…two children. At least one of them is a boy. What is the probability that both children are boys?” may be 2/3 instead of 1/2. The problem is much debated. I was made aware of this paradox by the book Bernoulli's Fallacy by Aubrey Clayton ( https://www.goodreads.com/book/show/55825328-bernoulli-s-fal... ), which I do recommend as an interesting read.
……人类与时间的关系。非常愉悦的读物。James Nestor 的《Breath》。现代人由于现代生活的各种因素，呼吸方式是错误的。探索正规呼吸的科学与艺术。Aubrey Clayton 的《Bernoulli's Fallacy》。在统计学的流派之争中，这本书立场极其鲜明：贝叶斯学派毫无疑问更胜一筹。他揭露了频率学派统计学的种族主义/殖民主义历史，以及根本性的……
…human's relationship with time. Delightful read. Breath by James Nestor. Modern humans are breathing incorrectly due to factors of modern life. An exploration of the science and art of breathing properly. Bernoulli's Fallacy by Aubrey Clayton. In the statistical wars, this book takes a strong stance: Bayesian is unequivocally better. He exploses the racist/colonial history of frequentist statistics, as well as the fundamental…
……带有均匀先验的最可能参数。如果有人对这套东西的历史以及这位作者关于概率哲学含义的讨论感兴趣，他的《Bernoulli's Fallacy》是一本相当不错的读物。我唯一的抱怨是，书里没怎么讲具体该如何进行贝叶斯推断，也没有讨论在现代环境下做这个是什么体验。只有短短几页……
…the most likely parameter with a uniform prior. If anyone is interested in the history of this stuff along with a discussion of the philosophical meaning of probability from the same author, his book Bernoulli's Fallacy is a pretty good read. My only qualm with it is the lack of much exposure on how to actually do Bayesian inference or a discussion on what it's like to do it in a modern setting. There's a brief few pages…
……‘往往是相伴出现的，比如一个人的身高和他的鞋码，他还给出了一个相关性公式，能够重现他遗传研究中的“回归系数”。’ 摘自 Aubrey Clayton 的《Bernoulli's Fallacy》https://books.apple.com/us/book/bernoullis-fallacy/id1538214... 本材料可能受版权保护。
…tended to go together, such as a person’s height and their shoe size, and he provided a formula for correlation that would reproduce his “coefficient of reversion” from the heredity studies.” Excerpt From Bernoulli's Fallacy Aubrey Clayton https://books.apple.com/us/book/bernoullis-fallacy/id1538214... This material may be protected by copyright.
……Jaynes 的《Probability Theory: The Logic of Science》提供了基础理论。- Robert McElreath 的《Rethinking Statistics》提供了该理论在 R 语言中的实际应用。- Andrew Clayton 的《Bernoulli's Fallacy》是一本非技术性读物，为频率学派与贝叶斯学派的争论提供了历史背景。我现在相当确信，贝叶斯方法比那些陈腐过时的启发式方法更具数学严密性……
…Janes "Probability Theory: The Logic of Science" provides the fundamental theory. - Robert McElreath "Rethinking Statistics" provides a practical application of the theory in R. - Andrew Clayton's "Bernoulli's Fallacy" is a non-technical book that provides historical context to the frequentist vs bayesian debate. I'm fairly convinced now that Bayesian approaches have more mathematical rigor than the crusty old heuristics…