军备与影响
Arms and influence
Thomas C. Schelling · 初版 1966 年
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传统上，美国人将战争视为外交的替代品，将军事战略视为胜利的科学。然而在今天这个核武器时代，军事力量与其说是被付诸实施，不如说是被用作威慑。Schelling先生指出，它是一种谈判筹码，而无论出于善意还是恶意，为了维持和平还是威胁发动战争，对这种筹码的运用都是外交——即暴力的外交。作者在本书中着重探讨了军事能力（无论是真实的还是虚构的）如何被巧妙或笨拙地用作谈判筹码。他将美国在
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不是孙子，是托马斯·谢林（Thomas Schelling）。他的《冲突的策略》和《武器与影响》是必读之作。在将博弈论引入核战略、裁军以及外交政策方面，这两本书极具影响力。
Not Sun Tzu. Thomas Schelling. His books "The Strategy of Conflict" and "Arms and Influence" are essential reading. They were influential bringing game-theory into the nuclear strategy, disarmament and foreign policy.
大军一旦集结完毕，想全部撤回就难于登天了，所以只能直接投入行动。我在托马斯·C·谢林的《武器与影响》[1] 这本书里读到过一个更精妙的理论。简而言之，一战爆发时，俄国人手头有两个预案：一个方案是仅针对奥匈帝国动员，另一个方案是同时针对他们和德国人动员…
Once the armies were assembled it was going to be impossibly difficult to move them all back so they got put into action instead. I read a more subtle theory in the book "Arms and Influence" by Thomas C. Schelling [1]. In short, at the start of WW1, the Russians had two plans available: A plan to mobilise against the Austro-Hungarians only, and a plan to mobilise against them and the Germans…
…我敢打赌（押上好几块钱），整个美国国家核安全局（NNSA）系统里，没有一个设施保密官（Facility Security Officer，也就是为国防承包商管理安保项目的人，虽然听起来像是‘保安’的高大上称谓）读过《武器与影响》。这根本就不是他们这类人会看的书。
…dollars that no Facility Security Officer (the name for people who manage security programs for defense contractor, despite sounding like a Sunday name for ‘guards’) in the entire NNSA complex has ever read Arms and Influence. That’s not quite their demographic profile.