……发呆。我觉得人们就是很难理解发生时间跨度在十年以上的现象。（顺便说一句，另一本关于周期性经济循环的好书是达利欧 2022 年的《原则：应对变化中的世界秩序》（The Changing World Order）。所有这些以前都发生过。这和加密货币没关系，而是与全球经济大环境有关。）
…stares. I think it's just really hard for people to understand phenomena that occur at time scales of say more than a decade. (BTW Another good book about recurring economic cycles is Dalio's 2022 The Changing World Order. All of this stuff has happened before. This is separate from crypto, and relates to the global economic environment.)
The linked article only looks at the time period of the last 50 years. If you believe in big cycles (like covered in Ray Dalio’s “The Changing World Order”), expand that perspective to several hundred years and market returns don’t look quite as guaranteed over a given 20 year period. I’m still formulating my own thesis but it’s a good read if you are into…
如果你还不熟悉瑞·达利欧的《原则：应对变化中的世界秩序》（Principles for Dealing with the Changing World Order），我强烈推荐（无论是书还是 YouTube 视频）。你看完会更清楚美国正处于其历史的什么阶段，以及为什么很多事情会变成现在这个样子。https://youtu.be/xguam0TKMw8
If you aren't familiar with Ray Dalio's Principles for a Changing World Order, I can't recommend it enough (both the book and the YouTube video). You'll understand a lot better where the U.S. is in it's history and why so much is the way it is. https://youtu.be/xguam0TKMw8
……让你重新思考并看得更深 2. 《资本之道》（Dao of Capital）。马克·斯皮茨纳格尔（Mark Spitznagel）写的书——深入探讨了尾部风险对冲以及他那反直觉的投资理念。他在新冠疫情期间赚了 4000% 3. 达利欧的文章——从《变化中的世界秩序》到《债务危机》
…you rethink and see deeper 2. Dao of Capital. Book by Mark Spitznagel -- goes into tail risk hedging, and his counter-intuitive investment thesis. He made 4000% over Covid 3. Dalio's essays -- from "The changing world order" to "Debt Crises"
……很多，但我不知道去哪里找。尽管它不是量化模型，但我极力推荐瑞·达利欧的《穿越大债务危机》（Navigating Big Debt Crises）。另外，他最近在网上发布了新书《变化中的世界秩序》的部分章节：https://www.principles.com/the-changing-world-order/#introdu...
…lot, but I'm not sure where to find it. Even though it's not quantitative models, I can only recommend "Navigating big debt crisis" by Ray Dalio. Also, he published some chapters of his new book -- The changing world order -- online recently: https://www.principles.com/the-changing-world-order/#introdu...
……发呆。我觉得人们就是很难理解发生时间跨度在十年以上的现象。（顺便说一句，另一本关于周期性经济循环的好书是达利欧 2022 年的《原则：应对变化中的世界秩序》（The Changing World Order）。所有这些以前都发生过。这和加密货币没关系，而是与全球经济大环境有关。）
…stares. I think it's just really hard for people to understand phenomena that occur at time scales of say more than a decade. (BTW Another good book about recurring economic cycles is Dalio's 2022 The Changing World Order. All of this stuff has happened before. This is separate from crypto, and relates to the global economic environment.)
瑞·达利欧（Ray Dalio）的《变化中的世界秩序》（Changing World Order）很值得一读。https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xguam0TKMw8
Ray Dalio's Changing World Order is a good read. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xguam0TKMw8
链接里的文章只看了过去 50 年这段时间。如果你相信大周期（比如瑞·达利欧在《变化中的世界秩序》里讲的那样），把视角拉长到几百年，就会发现特定 20 年期内的市场回报其实没那么有保障。我还在构建自己的论点，但如果你对……感兴趣，这确实是本好书
The linked article only looks at the time period of the last 50 years. If you believe in big cycles (like covered in Ray Dalio’s “The Changing World Order”), expand that perspective to several hundred years and market returns don’t look quite as guaranteed over a given 20 year period. I’m still formulating my own thesis but it’s a good read if you are into…
如果你还不熟悉瑞·达利欧的《原则：应对变化中的世界秩序》（Principles for Dealing with the Changing World Order），我强烈推荐（无论是书还是 YouTube 视频）。你看完会更清楚美国正处于其历史的什么阶段，以及为什么很多事情会变成现在这个样子。https://youtu.be/xguam0TKMw8
If you aren't familiar with Ray Dalio's Principles for a Changing World Order, I can't recommend it enough (both the book and the YouTube video). You'll understand a lot better where the U.S. is in it's history and why so much is the way it is. https://youtu.be/xguam0TKMw8
……让你重新思考并看得更深 2. 《资本之道》（Dao of Capital）。马克·斯皮茨纳格尔（Mark Spitznagel）写的书——深入探讨了尾部风险对冲以及他那反直觉的投资理念。他在新冠疫情期间赚了 4000% 3. 达利欧的文章——从《变化中的世界秩序》到《债务危机》
…you rethink and see deeper 2. Dao of Capital. Book by Mark Spitznagel -- goes into tail risk hedging, and his counter-intuitive investment thesis. He made 4000% over Covid 3. Dalio's essays -- from "The changing world order" to "Debt Crises"
……很多，但我不知道去哪里找。尽管它不是量化模型，但我极力推荐瑞·达利欧的《穿越大债务危机》（Navigating Big Debt Crises）。另外，他最近在网上发布了新书《变化中的世界秩序》的部分章节：https://www.principles.com/the-changing-world-order/#introdu...
…lot, but I'm not sure where to find it. Even though it's not quantitative models, I can only recommend "Navigating big debt crisis" by Ray Dalio. Also, he published some chapters of his new book -- The changing world order -- online recently: https://www.principles.com/the-changing-world-order/#introdu...