……上个世纪发生的事情，无论是像2008年席卷美国和全球大部分地区的次贷危机这种紧缩性债务危机，还是像1930年代魏玛共和国恶性通胀这种通胀性债务危机，都可以在雷·达里奥（Ray Dalio）的《债务危机》（Principles for Navigating Big Debt Crises）一书中找到分析。决定一场债务危机最终走向紧缩还是通胀的核心因素，在于该债务是否以本币计价（从而能否通过印钞来化解/社会化，比如……
…happened in the past century, both deflationary like the 2008 subprime crisis in the US and much of the world, and inflationary like the 1930s Weimar Republic hyperinflation can be found in Ray Dalio's book "Principles for Navigating Big Debt Crises". The main determinant of whether a debt crisis becomes deflationary vs inflationary is whether the debt is denominated in local currency (and can therefore be managed/socialized via money printing, like…
去读读雷·达里奥的《债务危机》（Principles for Navigating Big Debt Crises）吧。他们（桥水基金，全球最大的对冲基金）极其注重数据和经济史研究，而且凭借这套方法斩获颇丰。
Go read Principles for Navigating Big Debt Crises by Ray Dalio. They (Bridgewater, biggest hedge fund in the world) look at data and economic history, and they’ve done quite well by it.
……通过美元对黄金贬值来解决的（6102号行政令及后续措施），2008年则是通过量化宽松（QE）解决的。不过，过度印钞这种情况也是客观存在的。可以看看雷·达里奥的《债务危机》（Principles for navigating big debt crises）一书，书中分析了全球48起债务危机，对其中几起进行了详尽剖析，并总结出危机演变的一般规律框架。
…handled by devaluing the dollar against the gold (Executive Order 6102 and the follow ups), in 2008 it was handled by QE. There is such a thing as excessive money printing, though. See Ray Dalio's book "Principles for navigating big debt crises" which analyzes 48 debt crises across the world, a few of them in great detail and establishes a general framework of the way those play out.
如果你想弄清楚当下到底发生了什么，我强烈推荐阅读雷·达里奥的《债务危机》（Principles for Navigating Big Debt Crises）。这本书的研究非常扎实，讲清了我们目前所处的发展模式，以及接下来会发生什么。https://www.amazon.com/Principles-Navigating-Big-Debt-Crises...
If you want to understand what's going on, I strongly recommend reading Principles for Navigating Big Debt Crises by Ray Dalio. The book is highly researched and explains the pattern we're in, and what we'll see next. https://www.amazon.com/Principles-Navigating-Big-Debt-Crises...
You will not struggle to find Bridgewater/Dalio talking about the following themes: - The concept of "Debt cycles" (From Dalio's book "Principles for Navigating Big Debt Crises") - Interpretation of monetary policy effects on markets - Emerging markets (Mainly China) and the rise and fall of "reserve currencies"
……上个世纪发生的事情，无论是像2008年席卷美国和全球大部分地区的次贷危机这种紧缩性债务危机，还是像1930年代魏玛共和国恶性通胀这种通胀性债务危机，都可以在雷·达里奥（Ray Dalio）的《债务危机》（Principles for Navigating Big Debt Crises）一书中找到分析。决定一场债务危机最终走向紧缩还是通胀的核心因素，在于该债务是否以本币计价（从而能否通过印钞来化解/社会化，比如……
…happened in the past century, both deflationary like the 2008 subprime crisis in the US and much of the world, and inflationary like the 1930s Weimar Republic hyperinflation can be found in Ray Dalio's book "Principles for Navigating Big Debt Crises". The main determinant of whether a debt crisis becomes deflationary vs inflationary is whether the debt is denominated in local currency (and can therefore be managed/socialized via money printing, like…
去读读雷·达里奥的《债务危机》（Principles for Navigating Big Debt Crises）吧。他们（桥水基金，全球最大的对冲基金）极其注重数据和经济史研究，而且凭借这套方法斩获颇丰。
Go read Principles for Navigating Big Debt Crises by Ray Dalio. They (Bridgewater, biggest hedge fund in the world) look at data and economic history, and they’ve done quite well by it.
……通过美元对黄金贬值来解决的（6102号行政令及后续措施），2008年则是通过量化宽松（QE）解决的。不过，过度印钞这种情况也是客观存在的。可以看看雷·达里奥的《债务危机》（Principles for navigating big debt crises）一书，书中分析了全球48起债务危机，对其中几起进行了详尽剖析，并总结出危机演变的一般规律框架。
…handled by devaluing the dollar against the gold (Executive Order 6102 and the follow ups), in 2008 it was handled by QE. There is such a thing as excessive money printing, though. See Ray Dalio's book "Principles for navigating big debt crises" which analyzes 48 debt crises across the world, a few of them in great detail and establishes a general framework of the way those play out.
如果你想弄清楚当下到底发生了什么，我强烈推荐阅读雷·达里奥的《债务危机》（Principles for Navigating Big Debt Crises）。这本书的研究非常扎实，讲清了我们目前所处的发展模式，以及接下来会发生什么。https://www.amazon.com/Principles-Navigating-Big-Debt-Crises...
If you want to understand what's going on, I strongly recommend reading Principles for Navigating Big Debt Crises by Ray Dalio. The book is highly researched and explains the pattern we're in, and what we'll see next. https://www.amazon.com/Principles-Navigating-Big-Debt-Crises...
想找桥水/达里奥谈论以下主题的内容简直易如反掌：- “债务周期”概念（源自达里奥的《债务危机》）- 货币政策对市场影响的解读 - 新兴市场（主要是中国）以及“储备货币”的兴衰
You will not struggle to find Bridgewater/Dalio talking about the following themes: - The concept of "Debt cycles" (From Dalio's book "Principles for Navigating Big Debt Crises") - Interpretation of monetary policy effects on markets - Emerging markets (Mainly China) and the rise and fall of "reserve currencies"
已加入我的书单：雷·达里奥的《债务危机》（Principles For Navigating Big Debt Crises）
On my reading list: Principles For Navigating Big Debt Crises by Ray Dalio