适应
Adapt
Tim Harford · 初版 1960 年
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本书概述了一种通过评估失败来改变世界的反直觉方法，借鉴了众多学科的理论，主张复杂的挑战必须通过自适应的试错实践来应对，而不是依赖专家意见或现成方案。作者向我们展示了一种解决生活中最紧迫问题的全新且富有启发性的途径。面对复杂局势，我们都已习惯于寄望于领导者制定行动计划并开辟成功之路。他认为，当今的挑战根本无法通过现成的……来解决。
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Adapt
Tim Harford · 初版 1960 年
本书概述了一种通过评估失败来改变世界的反直觉方法，借鉴了众多学科的理论，主张复杂的挑战必须通过自适应的试错实践来应对，而不是依赖专家意见或现成方案。作者向我们展示了一种解决生活中最紧迫问题的全新且富有启发性的途径。面对复杂局势，我们都已习惯于寄望于领导者制定行动计划并开辟成功之路。他认为，当今的挑战根本无法通过现成的……来解决。
正在加载完整评论……
……我们有一种偏向于过往成功的认知偏差，而过往的失败可能反而是信息量更丰富的信号。Planet Money 跟这本书的作者录了一期很有意思的播客：http://www.amazon.com/Adapt-Success-Always-Starts-Failure/dp... 正好讨论了这一假说：http://www.npr.org/blogs/money/2012/09/04/160555540/episode-...
…we have a cognitive bias in favor of past success, when past failure might be the more informative signal. Planet Money did an interesting podcast with the author of this book: http://www.amazon.com/Adapt-Success-Always-Starts-Failure/dp... discussing just such a hypothesis: http://www.npr.org/blogs/money/2012/09/04/160555540/episode-...
蒂姆·哈福德的《适应：为什么成功总是始于失败》（Adapt: Why Success Always Starts with Failure）
"Adapt: Why Success Always Starts with Failure" by Tim Harford
蒂姆·哈福德的《适应：为什么成功总是始于失败》（Adapt: Why Success Always Starts with Failure）¹，一本引人入胜的故事集，汇集了各种各样跨度极大的项目案例。我老实承认，当初完全是因为在 More or Less² 节目里认出了他的名字才买来看的……
Tim Harford’s “Adapt: Why Success Always Starts with Failure”¹, an enthralling collection of tales from really diverse projects. I’ll freely admit to only picking it up because I recognised the name from the More or Less²…
……做得差强人意；有时候你到了那一步，才发现它比之前任何人设想的都要盘根错节得多。经济学家蒂姆·哈福德在《适应》（Adapt）里花了不少篇幅探讨这种资助模式的优点，并且相当支持，像阿莱克斯·塔巴洛克等其他经济学家也是如此。但实在看不出他们是否真的搞懂了工程与科学之间的区别。DARPA/X-prize 的大部分……
…done to some satisfaction; sometimes you get there and it's much more convoluted than anyone had previously assumed. The economist Tim Harford discusses the merits of this funding model quite a bit in Adapt, and is quite supportive of it, as are other economists such as Alex Tabarrok. But it's really not clear that they understand the differences between engineering and science, either. Most of the DARPA/X-prize…
根据蒂姆·哈福德的《适应》（Adapt）一书，指望像壳牌这样的公司做好可再生能源是不现实的。壳牌擅长的是处理液体燃料以及同政府打交道。这些技能在光伏领域根本派不上用场。
According to Tim Harford's book "Adapt" it's wrong to expect a company like shell to be good at renewables. Shell are good at handling liquid fuels and negotiating with governments. These are not useful skills for photovoltaics.