极端不确定性
Radical Uncertainty
Mervyn King、John Kay · 初版 2019 年
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在一个变化莫测的世界里，预测和数字往往代表着虚假的量化。Kay 与 King 向我们展示了如何更明智地思考。极度不确定性改变了我们思考决策制定的方式。半个多世纪以来，经济学一直假定人们是通过在明确定义的选项中做出最优化选择来展现理性行为的。行为经济学质疑了人们的理性程度，并指出了似乎能描述实际行为的认知偏差。《Radical Uncertainty》是一本大胆且具有范式革新意义的著作，它带领我们超越标准经济学和行为经济学，彻底改变了我们对
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John Kay 就此写过一本好书（《Radical Uncertainty》）。现在有一种趋势，就是盲目地把那些要么处于不确定性条件下、要么数字纯属公理假设而非基于常规观察的问题给量化了。这真是……
John Kay wrote a good book about this (Radical Uncertainty). There is a trend to falsely quantify questions that take place either under conditions of uncertainty or where numbers are just axiomatic assumptions rather than based on regular observations. It's…
John Kay 写过一本关于这个的好书，叫《Radical Uncertainty》。令人恼火的是，大家越来越倾向于用量化术语来包装纯粹叙事性的陈述。正如作者所指出的，战争在历史上并不是命中注定的，至少在任何……
John Kay wrote a good book about this called Radical Uncertainty. It's annoying that there is an increasing tendency to frame what is a purely narrative statement in quantitative terms. As the author points out war is not historically predetermined, at least in any…
……过去值得信赖的东西，准确度可能会大幅下降，如果太盲目依赖，实际上会变得很危险。几年前我读过一本讲这个的极佳读物，是 John Kay 和 Mervyn King 写的《Radical Uncertainty》（https://wwnorton.com/books/9781324004776），里面谈到了把“已知的不确定”（known uncertain）系统（比如打扑克或火山喷发）的逻辑套用到完全动态的“极端……
…trustworthy in the past, may become significantly less accurate, and can in fact become dangerous to rely upon too blindly. Read a really good book on this a few years ago by John Kay and Mervyn King, Radical Uncertainty (https://wwnorton.com/books/9781324004776), where they talk about the issue of applying the logic of "known uncertain" systems (like games of poker, or volcanic eruptions) to completely dynamic "radically…
……试图在未来建立的模型取决于它过去的行为。但这并不适用于所有系统，甚至对大多数系统都不适用。John Kay 将其区分为“可解的不确定性”（resolvable uncertainty）和“极端不确定性”（radical uncertainty）。对火山喷发建模是可解的，因为这是一个相当可预测的系统，你可以给出有把握的随机性断言。复杂的人类系统则是混乱的，存在“未知的未知”（unknown unknowns），并且……
…trying to model in the future depends on its behaviour in the past. This is not true for all systems, it's not even true for most systems. John Kay differentiates between 'resolvable uncertainty' and 'radical uncertainty'. Modelling a volcano eruption is resolvable because it's a reasonably predictable system and you can make confident stochastic claims. Complex human systems are chaotic, have 'unknown unknowns', are…
昨晚我有幸参加了 Sir John Kay 教授（《Obliquity》、《Radical Uncertainty》等书的作者）的讲座。他对两点进行了辛辣的抨击：1）世界在 20 世纪 70 年代发生转变，管理从一种责任变成了将领导力视为战利品；2）商学院在培养严肃的……方面彻底失败了。
I had the privilege last night of attending a lecture given by Prof Sir John Kay (Obliquity, Radical Uncertainty, etc). He was scathing on two points: 1) the way the world changed in the 1970s from management as responsibility to leadership as prize, and 2) the abject failure of business schools to develop a serious…
作者（Brian Klaas）引用了 Kay 和 King 写的《Radical Uncertainty》。在《Radical Uncertainty》一书中，Mervyn King 和 John Kay 区分了两种问题：谜题（puzzles）与奥秘（mysteries）。以下是他们这本书的简介：……
The author (Brian Klaas) references "Radical Uncertainty" by Kay and King. In their book, Radical Uncertainty, Mervyn King and John Kay draw a distinction between two kinds of problems: puzzles and mysteries. Here is the description of their book:…