…“第三个在很多关于住房的键盘侠辩论中不知怎么的总被漏掉、但恰恰是这一切里至关重要（甚至是‘最’核心）的要素就是信贷。”正如 Kevin Erdmann 在《Shut Out》（https://www.amazon.com/Shut-Out-Shortage-Recession-Universit...）中所阐述的，事实恰恰相反。信贷其实是大家一窝蜂抓着不放、反而把租金（以及考虑到极低建房率下的预期租金）排除在外的因素，…
…“The third factor that somehow gets left out of a lot of armchair debates about housing and yet is an essential (possibly THE essential) element in all of this is credit.” As Kevin Erdmann explains in Shut Out (https://www.amazon.com/Shut-Out-Shortage-Recession-Universit...), the opposite is true. Credit is the factor that people jump to to the exclusion of rent (and expected rent given the low rate of homebuilding),…
…housing (whether rented or owned) has become less affordable. That's mostly because of various regulations (especially zoning) that limit how much developers can build. See eg https://www.amazon.com/Shut-Out-Shortage-Recession-Universit...
…much larger than that. Again, please have a look at https://kevinerdmann.substack.com/p/the-housing-shortage-is-... and perhaps https://kevinerdmann.substack.com/p/random-notes or https://www.amazon.com/Shut-Out-Shortage-Recession-Universit... for a book length treatment.
> It might be right, but it's far from damning evidence that the housing bubbles are myths. Kevin Erdmann's book 'Shut out' https://www.mercatus.org/research/books/shut-out has a lot more evidence piled up. https://kevinerdmann.substack.com/p/interest-rates-arent-the... has some interesting recent observations about the…
…存在长期的供不应求，导致很多人搬到了 CC（封闭城市）。OAC（开放城市）经历了一定幅度的行情和建房增加，但房价跌幅完全没有其他类型城市那么大。《Shut Out》认为，对 CAC（传染城市）出现的房价上涨所做出的反应，催生了拉高利率的政策，从而导致 CC 的房价暴跌，进而引发了信心崩盘……
…having a chronic undersupply that has caused many people to move into the CCs. The OACs saw some ride and an increase in homebuilding but didn’t see nearly the drop in prices as the other types of cities. Shut Out suggests that a reaction to the rise in housing prices that was occuring in CACs led to policy that brought up interest rates and caused prices in the CCs to drop which then led to a loss in confidence…
…限制了对低收入家庭的放贷，迫使他们付着比房贷还贵的租金去租房（https://www.mercatus.org/tags/housing-affordability-series https://www.amazon.com/Shut-Out-Shortage-Recession-Universit...）。当 Kevin Drum 只盯着全美中位数看时，他把这两个问题全都漏得一干二净。
…that restricted lending to low-income households, forcing them to rent for more than they would have paid in mortgage (https://www.mercatus.org/tags/housing-affordability-series https://www.amazon.com/Shut-Out-Shortage-Recession-Universit...). When Kevin Drum looks at national medians, he entirely misses both of these problems.
…“第三个在很多关于住房的键盘侠辩论中不知怎么的总被漏掉、但恰恰是这一切里至关重要（甚至是‘最’核心）的要素就是信贷。”正如 Kevin Erdmann 在《Shut Out》（https://www.amazon.com/Shut-Out-Shortage-Recession-Universit...）中所阐述的，事实恰恰相反。信贷其实是大家一窝蜂抓着不放、反而把租金（以及考虑到极低建房率下的预期租金）排除在外的因素，…
…“The third factor that somehow gets left out of a lot of armchair debates about housing and yet is an essential (possibly THE essential) element in all of this is credit.” As Kevin Erdmann explains in Shut Out (https://www.amazon.com/Shut-Out-Shortage-Recession-Universit...), the opposite is true. Credit is the factor that people jump to to the exclusion of rent (and expected rent given the low rate of homebuilding),…
…住房（不管是租房还是买房）已经变得越来越让人负担不起了。这主要是因为各种限制开发商建房规模的法规（尤其是 zoning/分区规划）。例如参见 https://www.amazon.com/Shut-Out-Shortage-Recession-Universit...
…housing (whether rented or owned) has become less affordable. That's mostly because of various regulations (especially zoning) that limit how much developers can build. See eg https://www.amazon.com/Shut-Out-Shortage-Recession-Universit...
…远比那个要大得多。还是建议去看看 https://kevinerdmann.substack.com/p/the-housing-shortage-is-...，或者也可以翻翻 https://kevinerdmann.substack.com/p/random-notes，想看整本书体量探讨的话去看 https://www.amazon.com/Shut-Out-Shortage-Recession-Universit...。
…much larger than that. Again, please have a look at https://kevinerdmann.substack.com/p/the-housing-shortage-is-... and perhaps https://kevinerdmann.substack.com/p/random-notes or https://www.amazon.com/Shut-Out-Shortage-Recession-Universit... for a book length treatment.
> 也许是对的，但这远远算不上能证明房地产泡沫是伪命题的铁证。Kevin Erdmann 的书《Shut Out》https://www.mercatus.org/research/books/shut-out 里堆了多得多的证据。https://kevinerdmann.substack.com/p/interest-rates-arent-the... 对……有一些有趣的最新观察
> It might be right, but it's far from damning evidence that the housing bubbles are myths. Kevin Erdmann's book 'Shut out' https://www.mercatus.org/research/books/shut-out has a lot more evidence piled up. https://kevinerdmann.substack.com/p/interest-rates-arent-the... has some interesting recent observations about the…
…存在长期的供不应求，导致很多人搬到了 CC（封闭城市）。OAC（开放城市）经历了一定幅度的行情和建房增加，但房价跌幅完全没有其他类型城市那么大。《Shut Out》认为，对 CAC（传染城市）出现的房价上涨所做出的反应，催生了拉高利率的政策，从而导致 CC 的房价暴跌，进而引发了信心崩盘……
…having a chronic undersupply that has caused many people to move into the CCs. The OACs saw some ride and an increase in homebuilding but didn’t see nearly the drop in prices as the other types of cities. Shut Out suggests that a reaction to the rise in housing prices that was occuring in CACs led to policy that brought up interest rates and caused prices in the CCs to drop which then led to a loss in confidence…
…限制了对低收入家庭的放贷，迫使他们付着比房贷还贵的租金去租房（https://www.mercatus.org/tags/housing-affordability-series https://www.amazon.com/Shut-Out-Shortage-Recession-Universit...）。当 Kevin Drum 只盯着全美中位数看时，他把这两个问题全都漏得一干二净。
…that restricted lending to low-income households, forcing them to rent for more than they would have paid in mortgage (https://www.mercatus.org/tags/housing-affordability-series https://www.amazon.com/Shut-Out-Shortage-Recession-Universit...). When Kevin Drum looks at national medians, he entirely misses both of these problems.