……我强烈推荐看一下。比尔展示了对能源系统深刻而独到的理解，这得益于他最喜欢的作者之一（Vaclav Smil），后者最近写了一本令人叹为观止又发人深省的书——《能源与文明》（Energy and Civilization）[2]。[1] https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=d1EB1zsxW0k [2] https://www.gatesnotes.com/Books/Energy-and-Civilization
…I highly recommend watching. Bill demonstrates a sophisticated understanding of energy systems, guided by one of his favorite authors (Vaclav Smil) who recently wrote the incredible and humbling book, Energy and Civilization [2]. [1] https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=d1EB1zsxW0k [2] https://www.gatesnotes.com/Books/Energy-and-Civilization
……我们经济中碳强度的降低，是物理资源受限的潜在结果，而非人类刻意行动所致。如果你研究过能源如何影响我们的文明（强烈推荐 Smil 的《能源与文明》（Energy and Civilization）），就会发现一个虽然难以接受但显而易见的事实：在极短的时间内，我们不可能在不拖垮全球经济的前提下实现激进的减碳。而在今天拖垮经济……
…reduced carbon intensity in our economy is the potential of physical resource limitations, not intentional human action. If you study the way energy impacts our civilization (highly recommend Smil's "Energy and Civilization"), it's fairly obvious, if not hard to swallow, that we cannot reduce carbon emissions radically enough in a short enough time span without also destroying the global economy. Destroying the economy today…
……如果没有大量的碳氢化合物，哈伯-博施法（Haber-Bosch process）根本不可能被发现。我们知道这一点是因为技术进步往往滞后于能源发现。强烈推荐通读一下 Smil 的《能源与文明》（Energy and Civilization），能更好地理解这一点。我们就像泡在巨大麦芽桶里发酵的酵母，眼前看似有着无穷无尽的能源，于是盲目扩张，远远超出了可持续的承载极限……
…world without massive amount of hydrocarbons the Haber-Bosch process is never discovered. We know this because technological advancement trail energy discovery. I highly recommend reading through Smil's Energy and Civilization to get a better sense of this. We are like yeast brewing in a giant vat of malted barely, seeing a what looks like an infinite amount of energy, expanding well beyond the sustainable carrying capacity…
如果你有兴趣更深入地了解人类社会与能源之间的宏观联系，推荐读读 Vaclav Smil 的《能源与文明：一部历史》（Energy and Civilization: A History）。我读这本书最大的收获是：一个社会迈向富裕，人均每年至少需要消耗 22.6 megawatt hours 的能源。高能耗社会……
If you're interested in learning more about the big picture connection between our human society and energy, I recommend "Energy and Civilization: A History," by Vaclav Smil. My biggest takeaway from his book is that transitioning a society to affluence requires, at minimum, 22.6 megawatt hours of energy per capita per year. High energy societies…
……盲信一切都会好起来，因为“technology”（科技）总会有办法。这些人没意识到的是，科技本身其实是能源的函数。这一点在 Vaclav Smil 的《能源与文明》（Energy and Civilization）里讲得非常透彻。过去250年里科技之所以显得神奇，是因为我们掌握了极其充沛的能源。一直有个很普遍的迷思——我自己以前也深信不疑——那就是在理性时代，人类神奇地……
…belief that everything will be fine because "technology" will find a way. What these people fail to recognize is that technology is a function of energy. This comes across pretty clearly in Vaclav Smil's Energy and Civilization. Technology has felt magical in the last 250 years because we have had a tremendous amount of energy. There is a very common myth, one I used to believe myself, that magically in the age of reason man…
……就像一直以来的那样，是未来的能源之星。而且套用那句老梗：永远都是未来的能源。现状就是如此。Murphy 对各项数据做了很好的梳理。而 Vaclav Smil 在他的多部著作中（《能源与文明》（Energy and Civilization）以及《世界历史中的能源》（Energy in World History，算是同书的早期版本，不过结构略有不同）等等）对这些问题做了更深入的剖析。注意，解决……
…is as it's always been, the power source of the future. And always will be, as the punch line goes. That's the lineup. Murphy has a good overview of numbers. Vaclav Smil in numerous of his books (Energy and Civilization and Energy in World History, an earlier edition of the same book, though with somewhat different organisation, as well as others) takes a deeper dive into many of these issues. Mind that solving the…
……我强烈推荐看一下。比尔展示了对能源系统深刻而独到的理解，这得益于他最喜欢的作者之一（Vaclav Smil），后者最近写了一本令人叹为观止又发人深省的书——《能源与文明》（Energy and Civilization）[2]。[1] https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=d1EB1zsxW0k [2] https://www.gatesnotes.com/Books/Energy-and-Civilization
…I highly recommend watching. Bill demonstrates a sophisticated understanding of energy systems, guided by one of his favorite authors (Vaclav Smil) who recently wrote the incredible and humbling book, Energy and Civilization [2]. [1] https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=d1EB1zsxW0k [2] https://www.gatesnotes.com/Books/Energy-and-Civilization
……我们经济中碳强度的降低，是物理资源受限的潜在结果，而非人类刻意行动所致。如果你研究过能源如何影响我们的文明（强烈推荐 Smil 的《能源与文明》（Energy and Civilization）），就会发现一个虽然难以接受但显而易见的事实：在极短的时间内，我们不可能在不拖垮全球经济的前提下实现激进的减碳。而在今天拖垮经济……
…reduced carbon intensity in our economy is the potential of physical resource limitations, not intentional human action. If you study the way energy impacts our civilization (highly recommend Smil's "Energy and Civilization"), it's fairly obvious, if not hard to swallow, that we cannot reduce carbon emissions radically enough in a short enough time span without also destroying the global economy. Destroying the economy today…
……如果没有大量的碳氢化合物，哈伯-博施法（Haber-Bosch process）根本不可能被发现。我们知道这一点是因为技术进步往往滞后于能源发现。强烈推荐通读一下 Smil 的《能源与文明》（Energy and Civilization），能更好地理解这一点。我们就像泡在巨大麦芽桶里发酵的酵母，眼前看似有着无穷无尽的能源，于是盲目扩张，远远超出了可持续的承载极限……
…world without massive amount of hydrocarbons the Haber-Bosch process is never discovered. We know this because technological advancement trail energy discovery. I highly recommend reading through Smil's Energy and Civilization to get a better sense of this. We are like yeast brewing in a giant vat of malted barely, seeing a what looks like an infinite amount of energy, expanding well beyond the sustainable carrying capacity…
如果你有兴趣更深入地了解人类社会与能源之间的宏观联系，推荐读读 Vaclav Smil 的《能源与文明：一部历史》（Energy and Civilization: A History）。我读这本书最大的收获是：一个社会迈向富裕，人均每年至少需要消耗 22.6 megawatt hours 的能源。高能耗社会……
If you're interested in learning more about the big picture connection between our human society and energy, I recommend "Energy and Civilization: A History," by Vaclav Smil. My biggest takeaway from his book is that transitioning a society to affluence requires, at minimum, 22.6 megawatt hours of energy per capita per year. High energy societies…
……盲信一切都会好起来，因为“technology”（科技）总会有办法。这些人没意识到的是，科技本身其实是能源的函数。这一点在 Vaclav Smil 的《能源与文明》（Energy and Civilization）里讲得非常透彻。过去250年里科技之所以显得神奇，是因为我们掌握了极其充沛的能源。一直有个很普遍的迷思——我自己以前也深信不疑——那就是在理性时代，人类神奇地……
…belief that everything will be fine because "technology" will find a way. What these people fail to recognize is that technology is a function of energy. This comes across pretty clearly in Vaclav Smil's Energy and Civilization. Technology has felt magical in the last 250 years because we have had a tremendous amount of energy. There is a very common myth, one I used to believe myself, that magically in the age of reason man…
……就像一直以来的那样，是未来的能源之星。而且套用那句老梗：永远都是未来的能源。现状就是如此。Murphy 对各项数据做了很好的梳理。而 Vaclav Smil 在他的多部著作中（《能源与文明》（Energy and Civilization）以及《世界历史中的能源》（Energy in World History，算是同书的早期版本，不过结构略有不同）等等）对这些问题做了更深入的剖析。注意，解决……
…is as it's always been, the power source of the future. And always will be, as the punch line goes. That's the lineup. Murphy has a good overview of numbers. Vaclav Smil in numerous of his books (Energy and Civilization and Energy in World History, an earlier edition of the same book, though with somewhat different organisation, as well as others) takes a deeper dive into many of these issues. Mind that solving the…