成功与运气
Success and luck
Robert H. Frank · 初版 2016 年
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“一位《New York Times》经济学专栏作家探讨了科学家们近年来的研究发现，他们发现运气在重要人生情境中扮演的角色远比大多数人想象的要大得多，并指出了对这一发现更为准确的理解将如何带来更好、更富裕、更公平的经济与社会，”——NoveList。
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Success and luck
Robert H. Frank · 初版 2016 年
“一位《New York Times》经济学专栏作家探讨了科学家们近年来的研究发现，他们发现运气在重要人生情境中扮演的角色远比大多数人想象的要大得多，并指出了对这一发现更为准确的理解将如何带来更好、更富裕、更公平的经济与社会，”——NoveList。
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……出生——你或许不觉得那是运气，但这绝对不是你自己选择或争取来的）起到的作用远比大多数人想象的要大。出处与书籍推荐：Robert H. Frank 的《成功与运气：好运与精英统治的神话》（Success and Luck: Good Fortune and the Myth of Meritocracy）https://press.princeton.edu/books/hardcover/9780691167404/su... > 近年来，社会科学家发现机遇在……中所起的作用大得多。
…born - you might not call it luck, but it’s certainly not something you’ve chosen or earned) plays a much bigger role than most people think it does. Source and book recommendation: Robert H. Frank: Success and Luck: Good Fortune and the Myth of Meritocracy https://press.princeton.edu/books/hardcover/9780691167404/su... > In recent years, social scientists have discovered that chance plays a much larger role in…
> 对“大体上这全凭运气”感到很困惑，到底有哪些研究？我建议读读《Success and Luck》[1]，它的调研很扎实。>> 依赖这种机制会巩固特权 > 这太荒谬了，只有当你考虑到……才会相信。有相当不错的论文 [2] [3] 论述过这个，它们……
> quite confused at [broadly this is just luck], what studies? I would recommend reading Success and Luck [1]; it's well-researched. >> relying on this dynamic entrenches privilege > this is quite ridiculous, this is only believable if you consider... There are pretty good [2] papers [3] about it, which…
……才能会导致极不平等的结果，其中成功与才能的联系微乎其微。还有其他模型也得出了类似的结果，比如 Robert Frank 那本通俗有趣的《Success and Luck: Good Fortune and the Myth of Meritocracy》中所概述的。我不觉得这个机制完全不可信，但这得展开细聊了。这些模型对幼稚的“经济学主义”（Economism）[1] 模型是一个有力的反制……
…merit can lead to highly unequal outcomes in which success is only tenuously linked to merit. There are other models yielding similar results, as for example outlined in Robert Frank's enjoyable book Success and Luck: Good Fortune and the Myth of Meritocracy. I don't find the mechanism entirely implausible, but that's a longer discussion. These models are an important counterpoint to naive "Economism" [1] models…
Robert Frank 的书《Success and Luck: Good Fortune and the Myth of Meritocracy》也是关于这个主题的一本佳作（并且支持了你关于需要某种形式的政府再分配的论点）。
Robert Frank's book Success and Luck: Good Fortune and the Myth of Meritocracy is another enjoyable book about this (and supports your argument for some form of government redistribution).
我推荐经济学家 Robert H. Frank 写的《Success and Luck: Good Fortune and the Myth of Meritocracy》（2016年）。他详细剖析了成功中有多少是靠运气。相关的 xkcd 漫画，幸存者偏差（Survivorship Bias）：https://xkcd.com/1827/
I'd recommend Success and Luck: Good Fortune and the Myth of Meritocracy. (2016) by economist Robert H. Frank. He details how much of success is luck. Pertinent xkcd, Survivorship Bias: https://xkcd.com/1827/
……里面充斥着大量的自由意志主义宣传。不过统计数据是扎实的。关于 Taleb：我不是 Taleb 的死忠粉。在我看来，关于机遇所起作用的论证，Robert H. Frank 在他的《Success and Luck: Good Fortune and the Myth of Meritocracy》中讲得要好得多。
…a lot of libertarian propaganda in it. However, the statistics are sound. Taleb: Not a huge fan of Taleb. The point about the role of chance is much better made, in my view, by Robert H. Frank in his Success and Luck: Good Fortune and the Myth of Meritocracy.