大流行
Pandemic
Sonia Shah · 初版 2016 年
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科学家们一致认为，在不久的将来极有可能出现一种引发全球大流行的病原体。但究竟会是哪一种？又会如何发生？在过去的五十年里，已有超过三百种传染病新发或卷土重来。90%的流行病学家预计，其中一种将在未来两代人内引发致命的大流行。它可能是埃博拉、禽流感、抗药性超级细菌，抑或是全新的某种病毒。虽然我们无法预知何种病原体会引发下一场大流行，但通过梳理过去病原体如何引发大流行的历史，我们便可以做出预测……
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……在五岁内有三分之一儿童死亡的环境里，人们的幸福感居然并不比死亡率只有 0.2% 的环境低多少。正确的度量尺度不是几年或几十年，而可能是几个世纪。我最近读了 Sonia Shah 写的神书《Pandemic》，其中最惊艳的观点之一，就是过去几百年医学和细菌理论思想的演变史。哪怕 Covid 的应对措施再弱智，也远远强于过去，而不是……
…1/3 of children dieing within five years are remarkably not unhappier than one where only 0.2% die. The right scale is not years or decades but maybe centuries. I recently read the powerhouse book “Pandemic” by Sonia Shah, among whose amazing ideas is a history of the ideas of medicine and germ theory in the last few hundred years. As idiotic as the Covid responses have been, they were way way better, not…
我目前在读 Sonia Shah 的《Pandemic》（她讲疟疾的那本《The Fever》也很值得一看）：* https://us.macmillan.com/books/9781250118004 * https://www.goodreads.com/book/show/23847947-pandemic 她在书里提到了猴痘：* https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Monkeypox_virus…
I'm currently reading Pandemic by Sonia Shah (see also her The Fever on malaria): * https://us.macmillan.com/books/9781250118004 * https://www.goodreads.com/book/show/23847947-pandemic In it she mentions monkeypox: * https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Monkeypox_virus…
……环境。一个人的孙辈在下一场瘟疫中幸存的几率比你还要高，因此过度长寿的种群早就灭绝了。我记得这一证据好像来自长寿树木？（Sonia Shah 的《Pandemic》）。
…environment. Ones grandchildren are more likely to survive the successor plague than you are, hence a population with excessively long life would have died out. I think the evidence was from long lived trees? (Pandemic by Sonia Shah).