计算的风险
Calculated Risks
Gerd Gigerenzer · 初版 2002 年
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Gigerenzer指出，我们理解数字的一大障碍在于我们生活在一种确定性的幻觉中。我们许多人认为HIV检测、DNA指纹分析以及日益增多的基因检测是绝对确定的。但即使是DNA证据也可能产生虚假匹配。我们之所以死守确定性的幻觉，是因为医疗行业、保险公司、投资顾问和竞选活动已经成为确定性的贩卖者，像推销商品一样兜售它。Gigerenzer表示，为了避免混淆，我们应该依靠更容易理解的风险表述方式，例如
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我很喜欢吉德·吉仁泽（Gerd Gigerenzer）的书《计算的风险：如何识破数字谎言》（Calculated Risks: How to Know When Numbers Deceive You）http://www.amazon.com/Calculated-Risks-Know-Numbers-Deceive/...，很适合用来做通俗易懂的理性思维训练。有意思的是，吉仁泽近期的书重点都在……
I like Gerd Gigerenzer's book Calculated Risks: How to Know When Numbers Deceive You http://www.amazon.com/Calculated-Risks-Know-Numbers-Deceive/... for readable training in rational thinking. Interestingly, Gigerenzer's more recent books have focused…
作者是个数学家，所以习惯了用百分比和数字来思考。吉德·吉仁泽写过一本很棒的书，《与风险算账》（Reckoning with Risk，在美国出版时叫《计算的风险：如何识破数字谎言》/ Calculated Risks: How to Know When Numbers Deceive You），他在书中呼吁大家别再用百分比了，改用自然数。当你说某个人的风险增加了……
The author is a mathematician, and thus used to thinking about percentages and numbers. Gerd Gigerenzer has a nice book, Reckoning with Risk (or Calculated Risks: How to Know When Numbers Deceive You in the US), in which he calls for people to stop using percentages and to use natural numbers numbers instead. When you say that someone's risk has increased by…