风险智慧
Risk savvy
Gerd Gigerenzer · 初版 2014 年
7人推荐
7位读者提及
12次提及
“敢于冒险对于创新、乐趣以及直面生活不确定性的勇气至关重要。然而在许多重大决策面前，摆在我们面前的往往是我们并不真正理解的统计数据和概率，我们不可避免地依赖相关领域的专家——政策制定者、财务顾问、医生——来替我们分析和决断。但如果他们自己其实也没太弄懂信息的呈现方式呢？我们如何确保向医生针对提议的治疗方案提出正确的问题？是否存在可以帮助挑选合适伴侣的经验法则？这本引人入……
Hacker News 上怎么说
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……你患病的概率有多大？HN 上的网友可能算得出来，但我敢保证很多人（包括医生和护士）算不出来。可以去看看 Gerd Gigerenzer 在《Reckoning With Risk》或《Risk Savvy》里的相关研究。
…chances you have the disease? People on HN may be able to work this out, but I guarantee that many people (including doctors and nurses) can't. See Gerd Gigerenzer's work on this in Reckoning With Risk or Risk Savvy.
……经常被贴上幼稚和过于简单的标签，比如 McClatchy 和 VandenHul (2005)。http://arno.uvt.nl/show.cgi?fid=129399 Gerd Gigerenzer 出了好几本书，我最近读的是《Risk Savvy》，他对这个话题做了一些详细探讨。我在这儿写也就只能写出一篇烂书评，所以你要是好奇，我绝对推荐去翻翻这本书。我不太确定自己是否完全赞同……
…is often labelled as naïve and too simple, by McClatchy and VandenHul (2005) for example. http://arno.uvt.nl/show.cgi?fid=129399 Gerd Gigerenzer has a number of books, the one I recently read was, "Risk Savvy" and he goes into some detail about the topic. All I'd do here is write a terrible book review, so if you're curious, I definitely recommend taking a look at the book. I'm not sure I totally agree with…
与《思考，快与慢》（Thinking Fast and Slow）唱反调的书：Gerd Gigerenzer 的《Risk Savvy》
The counter-argument book to Thinking Fast and Slow: Risk Savvy by Gerd Gigerenzer
……带着前列腺癌去世 vs 死于前列腺癌。这本书读起来很棒，我会建议任何对健康问题感兴趣的人去建立一种对“风险”的直觉。https://www.amazon.co.uk/Risk-Savvy-Make-Good-Decisions/dp/0...
…dying with prostate cancer vs dying from prostate cancer. This book is a great read and i would advise anyone who is interested in health issues to get an intuition of "risk". https://www.amazon.co.uk/Risk-Savvy-Make-Good-Decisions/dp/0...
……假阳性（false positives）。它探讨的是实际阳性造成的伤害。https://ebm.bmj.com/content/23/1/1 Gerd Gigerenzer 在这方面做了大量工作，所以他的书很有用。《Reckoning With Risk》或《Risk Savvy》都很不错。> 我更希望看到的是筛查能配合对患者的宣教，让他们了解潜在的风险和不准确性，然后直接放开搞。如果出岔子了，责任自负。……
…false postives. It's talking about harm caused by actual positives. https://ebm.bmj.com/content/23/1/1 Gerd Gigerenzer has done a lot of work on this, so his books are useful. Reckoning With Risk or Risk Savvy are good. > What I would prefer to see is that screening comes with patient education so they understand the potential risks and inaccuracies and then let 'er rip. If something goes south, it's on them.…
如果有想深入了解的，这两种分别是过度诊断偏倚（over-diagnosis bias）和前置时间偏倚（lead-time bias）。Gerd Gigerenzer 的《Risk Savvy》有一章对这些讲得很透彻。整本书都很值得一读。
These are the over-diagnosis bias and the lead-time bias for anyone interested in learning more. The book Risk Savvy by Gerd Gigerenzer has a chapter that does a good job of covering these. The entire book is worth a read.