对赌
Thinking in bets
Annie Duke · 初版 2018 年
37人推荐
44位读者提及
55次提及
为什么值得读
- 破除以结果论成败的认知误区
- 指导在信息不全时做出更明智的决断
- 启发对不完全信息博弈的深层思考
“扑克冠军转型为商业顾问的 Annie Duke 教你如何适应不确定性，并由此做出更明智的决策。在 Super Bowl XLIX 中，Seahawks 教练 Pete Carroll 做出了橄榄球历史上最具争议的战术决定之一：在比赛还剩26秒、于 Patriots 的一码线处落后4分的情况下，他下令传球，而不是手递手交球给当家跑卫。结果传球被抄截，Seahawks 输掉了比赛。批评者称这是史上最愚蠢的战术。但这个决定真的有那么糟糕吗？抑或是 Carroll 实际上做出了一个极佳的举动，却被坏运
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去年我想买《Thinking in Bets》（顺便说一句，非常棒的一本书）。我有点等不及，就在 Barnes & Noble 网站上查了一下，发现我所在地方的一家实体店有现货。我就进店去买，结果店里的价格高出几……
Last year I wanted to buy Thinking in Bets (great book, btw). I was feeling impatient, so I looked it up on Barnes and Noble's website, and saw that a store where I was had it in stock. I went in to purchase it, and the price in store was a couple…
……这段时间我一直在琢磨的读书会服务。这个博客是我用来讨论在读书籍中有趣观点的地方（比如我从《Thinking in Bets》里学到的这个超赞的“以结果论成败”[resulting] 概念 [4]）。如果你想给博客投稿，我很欢迎（只要在网站或我的个人主页上翻翻看就能找到联系方式）。[2]: https://kayce.basqu.es/sabbatical/prologue…
…book club service I had been kicking around all this time. The blog is my place to discuss interesting ideas from whatever books I'm reading (such as this fascinating "resulting" idea [4] I learned from Thinking In Bets). If you would like to contribute to the blog I am open to that possibility (just dig around on the site or my personal site to figure out how to contact me). [2]: https://kayce.basqu.es/sabbatical/prologue…
类似的思路可以参考安妮·杜克（Annie Duke）的《Thinking in Bets: Making Smarter Decisions When You Don’t Have All the Facts》（对赌思维）。关于这本书的精彩讨论可以看这里：https://www.artofmanliness.com/articles/how-to-make-better-d... 亚马逊链接：https://www.amazon.com/gp/offer-listing/0735216355/ref=tmm_h...
A similar line of thinking is Annie Duke's Thinking in Bets: Making Smarter Decisions When You Don’t Have All the Facts. A good discussion on the book can be found here: https://www.artofmanliness.com/articles/how-to-make-better-d... Amazon link: https://www.amazon.com/gp/offer-listing/0735216355/ref=tmm_h...
安妮·杜克的《Thinking in Bets: Making Smarter Decisions When You Don't Have All the Facts》（对赌思维）[1] 就是这么一本书。它强调一点：坏的结果并不一定意味着糟糕的决策。[1] https://www.goodreads.com/book/show/35957157-thinking-in-bet...
"Thinking in Bets: Making Smarter Decisions When You Don't Have All the Facts" by Annie Duke [1] is just that book. It emphasises that a bad result does not have to be the result of a bad decision. [1] https://www.goodreads.com/book/show/35957157-thinking-in-bet...
安妮·杜克的《Thinking in bets》很不错，罗里·萨瑟兰（Rory Sutherland）的《Alchemy》也是。《Thinking in bets》让我开始琢磨去玩更多非完全信息博弈（imperfect information games）。最显而易见的选择是德州扑克，但我一直在想哪个……
Annie Duke's "Thinking in bets" was pretty good as was Rory Sutherland's "Alchemy". "Thinking in bets" got me thinking about playing more imperfect information games. The obvious choice would be poker, but I've been wondering which…
……个人层面。我觉得单是如实记录赢输，就很能让人保持谦逊；如果他还没算过自己的历史战绩（track record），我建议他去算算。我很喜欢安妮·杜克的《Thinking in Bets》，讲的是围绕下注决策培养习惯的心理学，以及我们存在的认知偏差。《漫步华尔街》（A Random Walk Down Wall St.）也是一本能让人产生这种敬畏心的经典之作……
…individual level. I think just properly accounting for wins and losses can be good at instilling a sense of humility; I'd recommend he calculate his track record if he hasn't already. I enjoyed the book Thinking in Bets by Annie Duke, which is about the psychology of developing some habits around making bets and the cognitive biases we have. A Random Walk Down Wall St. is also a classic that is good at instilling a sense…