决策的本质
Essence of decision
Graham T. Allison · 初版 1971 年
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作为二战后最具影响力的政治学著作之一，Essence of Decision 的初版对冷战（The Cold War）的关键转折事件进行了独特而引人入胜的剖析。这部经典著作的第二版绝非仅仅是修订，而是完全重写；它结合了来自肯尼迪录音带和近期解密的苏联档案中的全新信息，对围绕古巴导弹危机的理论和事件进行了崭新的重新诠释。Essence of Decision 第二版生动展现了高压之下的决策过程，是唯一一本单部……
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《决策的本质》- 格雷厄姆·阿利森与菲利普·泽利科。思考决策最简单省力的方法是理性行为体模型（rational actor model）。“美国没有签署 TPP 协议是因为……”“苹果取消了耳机孔是因为……”……
"The Essence of Decision" - Graham Allison and Philip Zelikow The easy way to think decisions is with the rational actor model. "The United States didn't sign the TPP agreement because..." "Apple removed the headphone jack because..."…
如果你对这类事情感兴趣，去看看格雷厄姆·T·阿利森写的《决策的本质》这本书。它采用了三种理解组织如何做决策的不同模型来分析古巴导弹危机，并探讨了如何根据……来理解这些事实
If you're interested in this sort of thing, check out the book Essence of Decision, by Graham T. Allison. It analyzes the Cuban missile crisis under three different models for understanding how organizations make decisions, and talks about how one might make sense of the facts in light…
格雷厄姆·T·阿利森的《决策的本质》。简而言之：我们通常用来思考和理解大公司、政府等组织行为的思维模型，错得离谱。
Essence of Decision by Graham T. Allison In a nutshell: The mental models we typically use to think about and understand the behavior of organizations such as corporations and governments are deeply wrong.
我觉得《决策的本质》这本书里的一些经验教训可能很有参考价值。我在管理冗重的组织中看到的一个难题是，众多的管理层级在很大程度上反而导致了根本无法进行良好的管理。在……之间隔了太多的指挥层级
I think that some of the lessons from the book Essence of Decision might be relevant. A challenge I've seen in management-heavy organizations is that the many layers of management largely function to make good management impossible. The many layers of command between…
《决策的本质》是一本探讨这个观点的极佳之作。它审视了理解组织如何做决策的不同模型，得出的结论大体相同：那种假定人们格外……的模型
Essence of Decision is a great book that explores this idea. It looks at different models for understanding how organizations make decisions, and arrives at broadly the same conclusion: a model that assumes people are particularly…
好文，最精彩的是马斯克的回复。这又是一个绝佳的例子，就像阿利森和泽利科在《决策的本质》中所写的那样：工业组织（哲学意义上的“工业”——指的是具有层级、部门等结构的组织）中发生的很多事情，其驱动力根本不是基于……的整体利益。
Great article, and the best is Musk's response. Just one more example of how, ala Allison and Zeilkow's "Essence of Decision," so much of what happens in industrial organizations ("industrial" in the philosophical sense -- meaning organizations with hierarchies, divisions, etc.) is motivated not by the overall interest of the…