政治生存的逻辑
The logic of political survival
Bruce Bueno de Mesquita · 初版 2003 年
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为什么值得读
- 运用严谨博弈论剖析权力维持的底层机制
- 阐述独裁统治与资源依赖的选择人理论
- 有助于理解企业组织内的权力与零和博弈
“作者构建了一个关于领袖选拔的发人深省的理论，并提出了可以推导出其核心主张的具象形式化模型。他们展示了政治领袖如何分配资源，以及选拔领袖的制度如何激励领导者去推行或优或劣的公共政策。他们还将该模型拓展用于解释战争对政治生存的影响。纵观全书，他们提供了从古代 Sparta 到 Vichy France 等丰富的历史案例，并利用来自跨国数据的统计资料对模型进行了检验。作者解释了……”
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……未来可用的资源），也不愿意在更大的经济体中充当分布式权力结构的一分子。这在独裁者中是非常普遍的套路，这也是为什么我会引用布埃诺·德·梅斯基塔和史密斯的《政治生存的逻辑》或者《独裁者手册》——取决于你想看同一个核心思想的理论阐述还是叙事性阐述。更棒的做法是，两本都读。
…resources available for the future) than to be part of a distributed power structure in a larger economy. This is a very common pattern among dictators, and this is where I cite Bueno de Mesquita and Smith's Logic of Political Survival or dictator's handbook, depending on whether you want the theoretical or narrative exposition of the same basic idea. Better yet, read both.
……你走之后下个季度帮他完成指标。这只会给他丢下一个让人头大的烂摊子：想办法招人替代你，而这可是实打实的繁琐工作。你应该去读读史密斯和布埃诺·德·梅斯基塔的《政治生存的逻辑》，或者写给更广泛大众的通俗版《独裁者手册》。公司可不是什么精英治国的小型民主社会，它们是披着漂亮装潢的零和博弈独裁实体。在那里……
…help him meet his targets next quarter after you've gone. It just presents him with the annoying problem of trying to replace you, which is actual work. You should read Smith & Bueno de Mesquita's The Logic of Political Survival, or the simpler version presented for a more general audience The Dictator's Handbook. Corporations are not little meritocratic democracies, they're zero-sum dictatorships with nice architecture. There…
……以保住权力。在一些如今处于初级民主阶段的非洲国家，如果没有唾手可得的资源底子，独裁者根本不可能坐得稳位子。布鲁斯·布埃诺·德·梅斯基塔在《政治生存的逻辑》和《独裁者手册》里的研究相当有意思。
…to hold on to power. In some African countries that are now proto-democracies, dictators simply couldn't hold on to power without easily available resource base. Bruce Bueno de Mesquita work in 'The Logic of Political Survival' and ' The Dictator's Handbook' is quite interesting.
……关于政治经济学的好书，作者是布鲁斯·布埃诺·德·梅斯基塔和阿拉斯泰尔·史密斯。https://www.amazon.com/Dictators-Handbook-Behavior-Almost-Po... 如果你想看硬核博弈论版本，可以看看同一批作者写的《政治生存的逻辑》：https://projects.iq.harvard.edu/gov2126/files/bueno_mesquita...
…read on political economics by Bruce Bueno de Mesquita and Alastair Smith. https://www.amazon.com/Dictators-Handbook-Behavior-Almost-Po... If you want the hardcore game theory version, check out The Logic of Political Survival by the same authors: https://projects.iq.harvard.edu/gov2126/files/bueno_mesquita...
……布埃诺·德·梅斯基塔和史密斯写的《独裁者手册》[1]，它本身就是梅斯基塔那本叫《政治生存的逻辑》的书里“选择人理论”（Selectoriat Theory，不确定这么翻对不对）的普及版。我强烈推荐，对我来说这是我读过最重要的书之一。它把你写的内容解释得一清二楚。CGP Grey 在他一个叫《统治者的法则》的视频[2]里做了非常棒的总结。……
…Dictator's Handbook [1] by Bueno de Mesquita and Smith which itself is a popularized version of their Theory of Selectoriat (i am not sure if it is a cortect translation) from Mesquita's book called The Logic of Political Survival. I highly recommend it, for me it is one of the most important books I've ever read. It explains exactly what you wrote about. CGP Grey made great recap in one of his videos [2] called Rules for Rulers.…
……起来。布赖恩·卡普兰在他的《理性选民的神话》一书中将这种现象称为“理性的非理性”，我觉得他的论证相当有说服力。另外也可以去了解一下阿拉斯泰尔·史密斯 / 布鲁斯·布埃诺·德·梅斯基塔的《政治生存的逻辑》以及他们提出的“选择人理论”。
…up. Bryan Caplan called this 'rational irrationality' in his book 'The Myth of the Rational Voter' and I found his argument quite persuasive. Also look into Alistair Smith/Bruce Bueno de Mesquita's The Logic of Political Survival and their notion of 'selectorate theory'.