启发式与偏差

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• MichaelGG · 2010 年

  我以前也那么想，直到读了《启发式与偏见：直觉判断的心理学》（Heuristics and Biases: The Psychology of Intuitive Judgment）。丹尼尔·卡尼曼和阿莫斯·特沃斯基的研究解释了“无为而治/无行动之行动”是如何真正在起作用的——根本不需要任何神秘主义色彩。

  I used to think that, until I read Heuristics and Biases: The Psychology of Intuitive Judgment. The work done by Daniel Kahneman and Amos Tversky explained how "action without action" can actually work - no mysticism required.

• maaku · 2013 年

  《启发式与偏见》（Heuristics & Biases）是一本细节更详实的好书： http://www.amazon.com/Heuristics-Biases-Psychology-Intuitive...

  Heuristics & Biases is a great book with more detail: http://www.amazon.com/Heuristics-Biases-Psychology-Intuitive...

• MichaelGG · 2015 年

  我还没读过那本，但读过《启发式与偏见》（Heuristics and Biases），那是卡尼曼和特沃斯基在这个课题上的原始研究。篇幅很长，而且读起来有点枯燥，但极其有用。我还建议读读 LessWrong 上关于理性主义（rationality）的一系列文章，因为它们的目标是……

  I've not read it yet, but have read Heuristics and Biases, which is Kahneman and Tverskys original research on the topic. It is very long and sorta dry, but incredibly useful. I'd also suggest reading the LessWrong sequences on rationality, as they are aimed…

• MichaelGG · 2015 年

  ……什么是正确的，我们的目标是什么。地球和大自然在这方面给不了我们任何帮助——这完全由我们自己说了算，毫无商量余地。这是个极为重大的问题，而很多在其他方面看似受过良好教育的人却似乎完全理解不了。《启发式与偏见》（Heuristics and Biases）。（虽然《思考，快与慢》可能读起来更亲民一些。）这本书让我彻底认清了一个事实：我是在一台坏掉的硬件上运行的。我的大脑内置了严重的、无法修复的偏见。那……

  …what is right, what our purpose is. The earth and nature aren't going to help us there - it's our call, full stop. That is huge, and many otherwise seemingly well educated people don't seem to get it. Heuristics and Biases. (Though Thinking Fast and Slow might be more approachable.) This book opened me up to the fact that I'm running on busted hardware. That I've got serious, unfixable, biases built into my brain. That…

• Jach · 2012 年

  如果你想看真正的科学研究而不是做做趣味测试，不妨去看看《不确定状况下的判断：启发式与偏见》（Judgment under Uncertainty: Heuristics and Biases）这本书。比休谟写得好。要是想现在就能读到点能让你引起重视的内容：http://singinst.org/upload/cognitive-biases.pdf

  If you want the actual science instead of the quiz consider the book Judgment under Uncertainty: Heuristics and Biases. It's better than Hume. For something you can read right now that might get you to care: http://singinst.org/upload/cognitive-biases.pdf

• vannevar · 2016 年

  丹尼尔·卡尼曼的书《思考，快与慢》（Thinking Fast and Slow）是对认知偏差领域的一份极佳概述。如果你想要对他研究进行更学术化的探讨，不妨看看《启发式与偏见》（Heuristics and Biases）。他研究中与项目估算最相关的部分可以在“规划谬误”（planning fallacy）那一节找到。除了卡尼曼之外，还有大量关于软件估算的论文，其中很多都指出了这些……

  Daniel Kahneman's book "Thinking Fast and Slow" is a great overview of the field of cognitive bias. For a more academic treatment of his research, check out "Heuristics and Biases". The part of his work most relevant to project estimation can be found in the "planning fallacy" section. Aside from Kahneman, there are numerous papers on software estimation, many of which note these…

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