超级预测
Superforecasting
Philip E. Tetlock、Dan Gardner · 初版 2015 年
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为什么值得读
- 介绍通过充分信息收集提升预测能力的具体方法
- 呈现非专家通过科学方法击败领域专家的实验
- 系统描述人类在复杂现实中做预测的思维过程
每个人都能从看得更远的预见力中获益，无论是买股票、制定政策、推出新产品，还是仅仅规划一周的饮食。不幸的是，人们往往是糟糕的预测者。正如沃顿商学院教授Philip Tetlock在一项2005年的里程碑式研究所表明的那样，即便是专家的预测也仅比随机猜测好一点点。然而，该研究一个重要却少有报道的结论是，某些专家的确具备真正的远见，而Tetlock在过去十年里一直致力于探寻其中的原因。究竟是什么让某些人如此卓越？这种天赋能否被后天习得？在Super
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……做出预测，而不是讨好以太坊粉丝或者提出真正的赌局。如果有人对如何做出靠谱的预测感兴趣，我推荐菲利普·泰特洛克的书，尤其是最新那本《超预测》[1]。第二次补充：我之前没意识到我的观点会有这么大争议，在此补充一些背景：如果有人确信某件事不可能发生，他就会给那件事赋予 0 的概率。如果那个人……
…predictions, not pay fan service to ethereum or suggest an actual bet. if anybody is interested in how to make proper predictions, I recommend the books by Philip Tetlock, especially the latest called Superforecasting [1]. EDIT2: I wasn't aware my views are so controversial, so here is some more background: If somebody was convinced something couldn't happen, he'd assign a probability of 0 to that event. If that person…
对这个话题感兴趣的人注意了，泰特洛克博士刚出了一本关于这方面的新书（http://www.amazon.com/Superforecasting-The-Art-Science-Predi...）。我们目前也正在为他和他的团队举办一场面向公众的预测锦标赛，重点关注地缘政治预测：https://www.gjopen.com/
For anyone who is interested in this topic, Dr. Tetlock just released a new book about it (http://www.amazon.com/Superforecasting-The-Art-Science-Predi...). We're also hosting a public forecasting tournament for him and his team that focuses on geo-political forecasting: https://www.gjopen.com/
确实。而且如果你读过《超预测》[1]，就会了解到好几个实验：实验中“非专家”仅仅凭借信息灵通，就把专家们吊打得体无完肤。哪怕那些专家手里掌握着机密数据也是如此。[1] https://www.amazon.com/Superforecasting-Science-Prediction-P...
True. Also, if you read Superforecasting[1] you'll learn about several experiments where "non-experts" beat experts by a lot by just being well informed. Even when the experts had access to confidential data. [1] https://www.amazon.com/Superforecasting-Science-Prediction-P...
写得太好了。换我来写绝不可能写得更到位了。在我看来，第 3 点至关重要。菲利普·泰特洛克和丹·加德纳合著的《超预测》[1] 针对人类预测领域的这个过程给出了极佳的描述，尽管他们并没将其表述为贝叶斯方法。从根本上说，他们发现……
Great post. Couldn't have said it any better myself. Point 3 is essential, IMHO. Superforecasting by Phillip Tetlock & Dan Gardner [1] relates an excellent description of this process in the realm of human forecasting even though they don't phrase it as a Bayesian approach. Essentially they found…
……迈克尔·费瑟斯的《修改代码的艺术》- 查尔斯·杜希格的《高效的秘密》- 杰克·纳普的《设计冲刺》- 纳西姆·塔勒布的《随机漫步的傻瓜》- 凯利·斯塔雷特的《像豹子一样灵活》- 菲利普·泰特洛克的《超预测》- 蒂莫西·加尔韦的《网球内功心理学》- 理查德·班菲尔德的《设计冲刺》- 托马斯·库恩的《科学革命的结构》- 内特·银的《信号与噪声》……
…Effectively With Legacy Code by Michael Feathers - Smarter Faster Better by Charles Duhigg - Sprint by Jake Knapp - Fooled by Randomness by Nassim Taleb - Becoming a Supple Leopard by Kelly Starrett - Superforecasting by Philip Tetlock - The Inner Game Of Tennis by Timothy Gallwey - Design Sprint by Richard Banfield - The Structure of Scientific Revolutions by Thomas Kuhn - The Signal and the Noise by Nate Silver…
关于这点，泰特洛克的《超预测》是一本关于软性分析的绝佳书籍，对于做量化（quant）的读者来说完全能看得通透。
On that point, Superforecasting by Tetlock is an excellent book on softer analysis, which will make perfect sense to quant readers.