股市长线法宝
Stocks for the long run
Jeremy J. Siegel · 初版 1994 年
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为什么值得读
- 展示美股两百年间扣除通胀后约百分之七的年增长
- 论证长期持有时股票风险其实低于债券
- 为指数基金被动投资策略提供有力依据
《Stocks for the Long Run》开创了先河，成为有史以来论证股票市场投资最完备、最无可辩驳的经典之作。如今，这本长期投资的圣经推出了第四版，延续其一贯传统，通过更新、修订和全新内容，帮助你在全球市场中保持竞争力并掌握最新的 index 工具。Wharton School 教授 Jeremy Siegel 结合全新证据、研究与分析，有力支持了其构建高收益、低风险稳健投资组合的核心策略。在兼收并蓄的流畅叙述中……
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……盈利波动相当大）。随着时间的推移，构成股票市场的那些公司所支付的实际股息也一直在增长。沃顿商学院的金融学教授杰里米·西格尔写了一本好书叫《股市长线法宝》，书中表明在过去 200 年里，股票的年增长率约为 7%（扣除通胀后）。> 如果我们根据货币供应量进行修正，市场会是什么样子？我认为最好还是根据……
…earnings are quite volatile). The real dividends paid by the companies that make up the stock market have also grown over time. Jeremy Siegel, a finance professor at Wharton, wrote a great book called Stocks for the Long Run that shows stocks have grown about 7% per year (inflation adjusted) over the last 200 years. > What would the market look like if we corrected for the money supply? I think it's better to correct for…
……时间窗口的长度占了 20 世纪的很大一部分。更不用说那些在历史数据中完全无法体现其影响程度的极端离群事件了。一本值得一读的好书是西格尔的《股市长线法宝》。
…time window's length is a large fraction of the 20th century. Not to mention extreme outlier events whose level of impact isn't represented at all in the historical data. A good book to read is Siegel's Stocks for the Long Run.
> 沃顿商学院金融学教授杰里米·西格尔写了一本很棒的书叫《股市长线法宝》，书中指出在过去 200 年里，股票每年增长约 7%（扣除通胀后） 你们俩完全是在各说各话。他说的通胀是指 M2，而你参考的数据则是……
>Jeremy Siegel, a finance professor at Wharton, wrote a great book called Stocks for the Long Run that shows stocks have grown about 7% per year (inflation adjusted) over the last 200 years You two are talking past each other. When he says inflation, he means M2, you're referencing something that…
……《人性的弱点》- 卡耐基，《感觉良好》- 伯恩斯，《哥德尔、艾舍尔、巴赫》- 霍夫施塔特，《物理学基础》- 哈里德和雷斯尼克，《海鸥乔纳森》- 巴赫，Commodore 64 用户手册，《股市长线法宝》，《玩家手册》和《地下城主指南》- 吉盖克斯，《沙丘》- 赫伯特
…and influence people - Carnegie, Feeling Good - Burns, Godel Esher Bach - Hofstadter, Fundamentals of Physics - Halliday and Resnick, Jonathan Livingston Seagull - Bach, The Commodore 64 User Manual, "Stocks for the Long Run", The Player's Handbook and Dungeon Master's Guide - Gygax, Dune - Herbert
《股市长线法宝》提出了一个非常有说服力的论点：在更长的持有期内，股票的风险其实比债券还要低。
Stocks for the Long Run makes the pretty compelling case that over longer holding periods stocks are less risky than bonds.
……年化回报率。”他肯定知道 7% 是个具有某种魔力的数字，这就是杰里米·西格尔在其开山之作《股市长线法宝》中论证的过去 200 年股票扣除通胀后的年化稳定收益率，该书写于 1994 年，是被动股票投资的基础理论依据（《非理性繁荣》等书则直接反驳了这一观点）。标普 500 指数在 9 年间实现了 7.1% 的回报这一事实……
…annualized return." He must know that 7% is something of a magic number, it's what Jeremy Siegel argued is the steady, annual inflation-adjusted gains for equites for the past 200 years in his seminal book "Stocks for the Long Run," which was written in 1994 and is the foundational argument for passive equity investing ("Irrational Exuberance" and others argue directly against it). The fact that the S&P 500 did 7.1% over 9 years…