战争与和平与战争
War and Peace and War
Peter Turchin · 初版 2005 年
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正如 Jared Diamond 在 Guns, Germs, and Steel 中所做的那样，Peter Turchin 在 War and Peace and War 中利用他在演化生物学方面的专业知识，就帝国的兴衰提出了极具独创性的论点。Turchin 认为，帝国形成的关键在于一个社会进行集体行动的能力。他论证指出，当人们必须团结起来抵御共同敌人时，就会出现高水平的合作，正是这种合作促进了罗马帝国、俄罗斯帝国和美国的形成。但随着帝国的发展，富人越来越富，穷人越来越
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我建议你看看彼得·图钦（Peter Turchin）的《战争与和平与战争》（War and Peace and War）。他认为导致财富集中的不是资本主义，而是和平、稳定与繁荣——因为我们在全球范围内、在很久以前的历史中都能看到这个问题。由于和平滋生……
I'd refer you to Peter Turchin, War and Peace and War. He argues that it's not capitalism that leads to wealth concentration, it's peace, stability, and prosperity -- since we can see this problem worldwide, and very far back in history. Since peace breeds…
我可不看好美国的寿命。去读读彼得·图钦的《战争与和平与战争》（一两周前这里讨论过），特别是要注意他关于多个帝国民族无法共存于同一个国家的部分……《第四次转折》（The Fourth Turning）——关于几代人往往会呈现出的模式……
I wouldn't bet on the US's longevity. Read Peter Turchin, War and Peace and War (discussed here a week or two ago), particularly noting his part about how multiple imperial peoples can't coexist in a single country... The Fourth Turning -- on the patterns that generations tend to…
你可能也会对彼得·图钦的《战争与和平与战争》感兴趣——书中将社会凝聚力视为衡量社会健康的标准，并将社会内部志同道合的成员之间的内卷竞争视为走向终结的开端。（这一点在历史上被反复证实，……
You might also be interested in Peter Turchin's War and Peace and War -- which depicts social cohesion as the measure of social health, and internal competition among like-minded members of a society as the beginning of the end. (This is confirmed repeatedly by history,…
……群体凝聚力和依存关系是如此强大，以至于它往往是决定哪些社会/国家/群体能在群体冲突中胜出的头号因素。如果你对这个概念感兴趣，彼得·图钦写的《战争与和平与战争》是一本极好的读物。另一本是塞巴斯蒂安·荣格（Sebastian Junger）的《部落》（Tribe），也探讨了这个主题。
…Group cohesion and dependency is so powerful that it's often the number one factor in determining which societies/countries/groups come out victorious with intergroup conflict. A great book called "War and Peace and War" by Peter Turchin is a fantastic book to read if this concept interests you. Another one, "Tribe" by Sebastion Junger also explores this topic.
……他那本书的书名——《崩溃：社会如何选择成败兴亡》（Collapse: How Civilizations Choose to Fail or Succeed）——本该起得没那么专断才对。）至于我认为的实际情况，可以去查查彼得·图钦的《战争与和平与战争》，这是一部“老派”——或者说新奇——的著作，指出了文明凝聚力（伊本·赫勒敦所谓的 asabiya，但不是通常的阿拉伯语定义）在兴衰中的重要性……
…the title of his book -- _Collapse: How Civilizations Choose to Fail or Succeed_ -- should have been something a lot less authoritative.) For what I think is actually the case, look up Peter Turchin's _War and Peace and War_, an "old-fashioned" -- or rather, newfangled -- work pointing to the importance of civilizational cohesion (Ibn Khaldun's asabiya, but not the normal Arabic definition of it) in the rise and fall of…
彼得·图钦在一本名为《战争与和平与战争》的书里，用通俗易懂的科普语言阐述了他的研究。我几个月前读了这本书并写了书评：http://chester.id.au/2012/05/14/review-war-and-peace-and-war... 这个链接里没提到的是，图钦对自己的结论依然保留了很大余地。他并不是……
Peter Turchin published a highly readable pop-science account of his work in a book called War and Peace and War. I read it a few months ago and gave a review. http://chester.id.au/2012/05/14/review-war-and-peace-and-war... What's left out of this link is that Turchin still hedges his findings heavily. He's not…