鉴于链接文章的内容，我强烈建议大家看一看 Peter Turchin 关于《Secular Cycles》（1）的研究。他还有一个博客，在那里对其中的一些观点做了进一步展开。不过读起来并不轻松。对他著作最好的介绍是之前在 slatestarcodex（现已删除）上的一篇书评——或许还能找回来……
Given the content of the linked article, I heartily recommend taking a peek at Peter Turchin's work on Secular Cycles (1). He also keeps a blog, where he expands on some of the ideas. Not a light reading, though. The best introduction to his work was a book review at now deleted slatestarcodex - maybe it can be retrieved…
…intense in academia as you move up the university prestige ladder. Peter Turchin has written a lot about the general dynamics of intra-elite competition and elite overproduction: see https://www.amazon.com/Secular-Cycles-Peter-Turchin/dp/06911... for example
还没读全文，但我饶有兴致地注意到这是 Peter Turchin 写的，就是写《Secular Cycles》的那个人。我自己还没读过这本书，但我一直很喜欢 Scott Alexander 对那本书 [0] 及其续作 [1] 的书评。特别是，Turchin 在 2016 年就预测 2020 年将是社会冲突的顶峰……
Haven’t read the full article, but I note with interest that this is by Peter Turchin, the same person who wrote Secular Cycles. I haven’t read it myself, but I’ve always liked Scott Alexander’s review of that book [0] and its sequel [1]. In particular, Turchin predicted in 2016, that 2020 would form the peak of social conflict…
A propos, there was a review on slatestarcodex for "Secular Cycles" effectively tracking the rise and fall of civilizations if I remember correctly. The argument is societies start to destabilize and stagnate once wealth concentrates to a certain point, after which war…
鉴于链接文章的内容，我强烈建议大家看一看 Peter Turchin 关于《Secular Cycles》（1）的研究。他还有一个博客，在那里对其中的一些观点做了进一步展开。不过读起来并不轻松。对他著作最好的介绍是之前在 slatestarcodex（现已删除）上的一篇书评——或许还能找回来……
Given the content of the linked article, I heartily recommend taking a peek at Peter Turchin's work on Secular Cycles (1). He also keeps a blog, where he expands on some of the ideas. Not a light reading, though. The best introduction to his work was a book review at now deleted slatestarcodex - maybe it can be retrieved…
我确实觉得《Secular Cycles》读起来非常引人入胜。
I certainly found Secular Cycles a compelling read.
……随着你沿着大学声望阶梯往上爬，学术界的竞争也愈发激烈。Peter Turchin 写过很多关于精英内部竞争和精英生产过剩的普遍动态：例如参见 https://www.amazon.com/Secular-Cycles-Peter-Turchin/dp/06911...
…intense in academia as you move up the university prestige ladder. Peter Turchin has written a lot about the general dynamics of intra-elite competition and elite overproduction: see https://www.amazon.com/Secular-Cycles-Peter-Turchin/dp/06911... for example
还没读全文，但我饶有兴致地注意到这是 Peter Turchin 写的，就是写《Secular Cycles》的那个人。我自己还没读过这本书，但我一直很喜欢 Scott Alexander 对那本书 [0] 及其续作 [1] 的书评。特别是，Turchin 在 2016 年就预测 2020 年将是社会冲突的顶峰……
Haven’t read the full article, but I note with interest that this is by Peter Turchin, the same person who wrote Secular Cycles. I haven’t read it myself, but I’ve always liked Scott Alexander’s review of that book [0] and its sequel [1]. In particular, Turchin predicted in 2016, that 2020 would form the peak of social conflict…
顺便提一句，如果我没记错的话，slatestarcodex 上曾有一篇关于《Secular Cycles》的书评，非常有效地追踪了文明的兴衰。其论点是，一旦财富集中到一定程度，社会就开始走向不稳定和停滞，随后战争……
A propos, there was a review on slatestarcodex for "Secular Cycles" effectively tracking the rise and fall of civilizations if I remember correctly. The argument is societies start to destabilize and stagnate once wealth concentrates to a certain point, after which war…