噪声
Noise
Daniel Kahneman、Olivier Sibony、Cass R. Sunstein · 初版 2021 年
3人推荐
13位读者提及
18次提及
为什么值得读
- 系统剖析人类决策失败与判断出现偏差的根源
- 包含如法官量刑指南与指纹比对等鲜活案例
- 深刻重塑读者在现实中分析复杂情境的思维方式
来自 Thinking, Fast and Slow 的畅销书作者、Nudge 的合著者，以及 You Are About to Make a Terrible Mistake! 的作者联手推出了 Noise，这是一次革命性的探索，剖析了人们为何会做出糟糕的判断，以及如何同时控制噪声与认知偏差。试想一下，同一座城市里的两位医生会对完全相同的病人给出不同的诊断——或者同一家法院的两位法官会对犯下相同罪行的人给出截然不同的判决。再假设，同一家公司的不同面试官会对难分伯仲的求职者做出截然相反的决定——
Hacker News 上怎么说
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…《超预测》（Superforecasting）。Savage 的《平均数的陷阱》（The Flaw of Averages）。10. 如何把人培养成某个领域的专家：Hoffman 的《加速学习》（Accelerated Learning）。11. 人们是如何在决策中掉坑的：卡尼曼的《思考，快与慢》和《噪声》（Noise）。我不得不舍弃了几本关于统计学、因果推断、项目组合投资的书，它们没能挤进前20名。
…Superforecasting. Savage, The Flaw of Averages. 10. How to train people to be experts at things: Hoffman, Accelerated Learning. 11. How people fail at decisions: Kahneman, Thinking, Fast and Slow & Noise. I had to leave out a few about statistics, causality inference, project portfolio investment that didn't make the top 20 cut.
在大家对《思考，快与慢》的一片盛赞声中，很多人似乎都错过了《噪声》（Noise）。这也是一本神书，它对我处理问题方式的塑造甚至可能超过了前者。卡尼曼就是那种大师——我巴不得自己能遇到一个足够棘手的难题，好让我能痛快地…
Among all the praise for Thinking, Fast and Slow it seems that many people have missed out on Noise. Also a fantastic book that shaped how I approach situations perhaps more than the former. Kahneman was one of those people where I was just waiting to have a problem tough enough that I'd have a good…
有意思的是，我刚听完了卡尼曼的《噪声》（Noise），里面有一整章专门讲美国的量刑指南（Sentencing Guidelines）！非常棒的一本书！
Interestingly, I’ve just listened to Kahneman’s “Noise”, which features a whole chapter about Sentencing Guidelines in the US! Very good book!
…正在读这段话的朋友，你在某些基本认知上也是错的。具体错在哪些事情上因人而异，但我敢保证绝对有。卡尼曼写过一本讲这个的神书叫《噪声》（Noise）。整本书都在探讨人类决策中的噪声以及如何对抗它。我最喜欢的一个例子是，即使是同一个专家在不同场合（间隔时间足够长以至于忘了）评估同一组指纹…
…dear person reading this. You are wrong about some basic things too. It'll vary from person to person what those are, but it is guaranteed there's something. Kahneman has a fantastic book on this called Noise. It’s all about noise in human decision making and how to counteract it. My favorite example was how even the same expert evaluating the same fingerprints on different occasions (long enough to forget)…
…反正 arXiv 上什么都有。所以不用靠出价竞拍，直接随机分配就行。卡尼曼的新书里就聊到了这个，而且最近一直在 NPR、纽约时报等媒体上被疯狂讨论……https://www.amazon.com/Noise-Human-Judgment-Daniel-Kahneman/...
…mean everything is on ArviX anyways. So instead of bids you have randomization. Kahneman's latest book talks about this and it's been making the rounds on NPR, NyTimes etc... https://www.amazon.com/Noise-Human-Judgment-Daniel-Kahneman/...
…算法的表现[2]，但我认为 Fryer 对机器学习太迷信了。我怀疑机器可能只是学到了：没有什么能比得过一个高中成绩优秀的中产阶级孩子。[1] 丹尼尔·卡尼曼等人的《噪声》（Noise）一书对算法为何优于人类判断有段极其精彩的描述：“Meehl 梳理了二十项将临床判断与机械式…进行直接对抗的研究”
…performance of the algorithm [2] but I think Fryer has too much faith in machine learning. I suspect a machine may simply learn that nothing beats a middle-class kid who did well at high school. [1] The book Noise by Daniel Kahneman et al has a fascinating description about how algorithms are superior to human judgement: "Meehl reviewed twenty studies in which a clinical judgment was pitted against a mechanical…