大国的兴衰
The rise & fall of great powers
Tom Rachman · 初版 2010 年
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Tooly Zylberberg是一位美国人，在威尔士乡村开着一家偏僻的书店，过着充斥着阅读却鲜少与人往来的生活。书籍比人更安全，因为人可能会对她的生活提出令人难堪的疑问。她宁愿永远不提自己年轻时遭遇的怪事，那些经历至今仍让她困惑且担忧。年轻时离开家乡的Tooly，发现自己被一伙极具蛊惑力的人拐走，卷入了横跨亚洲、欧洲到美国的冒险与骗局之中。
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借这个机会安利一下 Paul Kennedy 的《大国的兴衰》（The Rise and Fall of Great Powers）。这本书我读了一部分，写得真好。
A good time to plug "The Rise and Fall of Great Powers" by Paul Kennedy. I'm some of the way through this and it's a superb book.
你可能会对这本 [1]《大国的兴衰》（Rise and Fall of Great Powers）感兴趣——他们非常详尽地梳理了 1500 至 1950 年间的工业产出数据，并深入阐述了俄国长期存在的问题。没错，日本和中国在大部分……方面也“远远落后”。
You might be interested in this [1] 'Rise and Fall of Great Powers' - they go through the industrial output numbers in great detail from 1500-1950 and articulate Russia's constant problems at length. And yes, Japan and China were 'way behind' as well in most of the…
这一切都让我想起了历史学家 Paul Kennedy 的一本书——《大国的兴衰》（The Rise and Fall of Great Powers）。大家真该去读读看。
This all reminds me of a book by historian Paul Kennedy. "The Rise and Fall of Great Powers." Y'all should read it.
……就会应运而生。基本上可以说是存在一种瓦解所有国家的政治热力学，不管这个国家曾经多么伟大。Peter Turchin 针对大国的兴衰发展出了一套很有意思的理论体系。他写过一本畅销科普书《战争与和平与战争》（War and Peace and War），我在这篇书评里聊过：http://chester.id.au/2012/05/14/review-war-and-peace-and-war... 顺带提一句，我找到他使用“阿萨比亚”（Asabiya）这个词的原因了。它源于……
…would have emerged. Basically that there is a kind of political thermodynamics that destroys all nations, no matter how great. Peter Turchin has developed an interesting family of theories about the rise and fall of great powers. He wrote a popular account, War and Peace and War, which I reviewed here: http://chester.id.au/2012/05/14/review-war-and-peace-and-war... As a footnote, I found why he used the term 'Asabiya'. It comes…