风险与好的决策
Risk Savvy How To Make Good Decisions
Gerd Gigerenzer · 初版 2014 年
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指出“我们中的大多数人，包括医生、律师、财务顾问和民选官员，对 statistics 的误解远比我们想象的要频繁得多，这不仅使我们受到误导，还容易遭到利用。但希望犹存。任何人都可以学会为自己的健康、财务、家庭和事业做出更好的决策，而无需咨询专家或超级计算机，Gigerenzer 将在书中为我们指明方向”——
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事实上，很多医生和“专业人士”并不真正理解概率是怎么一回事。关于这个，可以参考格尔德·吉仁泽（Gerd Gigerenzer）的《风险与好的决策》（Risk Savvy: How to Make Good Decisions）。http://www.barnesandnoble.com/w/risk-savvy-gerd-gigerenzer/1...
Actually, a lot of medical doctors and "professionals" do not really know how probabilities work. For more on this, refer to Gerd Gigerenzer's Risk Savvy: How to Make Good Decisions. http://www.barnesandnoble.com/w/risk-savvy-gerd-gigerenzer/1...
文章中提到的包含该理论的书是《风险与好的决策》（Risk Savvy: How to Make Good Decisions）：“在 Big Data 时代，我们往往认为自己对未来的预测比以往任何时候都要准确。但正如风险专家格尔德·吉仁泽指出的那样，令人惊讶的事实是，在现实世界中，……
The book with the theory mentioned in the article: 'Risk Savvy' How to Make Good Decisions: "In the age of Big Data we often believe that our predictions about the future are better than ever before. But as risk expert Gerd Gigerenzer shows, the surprising truth is that in the real world,…
……开车这件事上的委托-代理问题（principal-agent problem）[2]。举个例子，假设出租车司机是在某个安全的地方像操控无人机一样远程驾驶车辆，你敢坐这样的出租车吗？[1] 吉仁泽：《风险与好的决策》（Risk Savvy - How to make good decisions）。[2] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Principal–agent_problem
…a principal-agent problem [2] for car driving. Assume that for example taxi drivers would steer the vehicle from a save place say as a drone. Would you want to drive with such a taxi? [1] Gigerenzer: Risk Savvy - How to make good decisions. [2] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Principal–agent_problem