平均时代的终结
Average is Over
Tyler Cowen · 初版 2013 年
13人推荐
30位读者提及
42次提及
为什么值得读
- 阐述未来社会最低门槛抬高与人机互补的概念
- 借用国际象棋等丰富案例论证经济分化趋势
- 视角比单纯技术乐观论更细致且具理性深度
在我们国家，富人和穷人的数量都达到了前所未有的程度。这种不断扩大的贫富差距意味着必须直面一个巨大而令人不安的真相：中产阶层正变得越来越薄弱。全球知名经济学家 Tyler Cowen 阐明了这一现象的成因：高收入人群越来越善于利用计算机并取得越来越出色的业绩；与此同时，那些没有下定决心学习新技术的中低收入者则前景暗淡。几乎每个商业领域在高价值岗位上对体力劳动的依赖都越来越少，而这一事实正在彻底改写工作与薪酬的世界。
Hacker News 上怎么说
正在加载完整评论……
……证据，而且我觉得少了几分理性），而经济学家泰勒·考恩（Tyler Cowen）多年来一直都在提出类似的论点。考恩的观点比蒂尔（Thiel）的更微妙（在我看来也更合理）。考恩的那本《大平庸》（Average Is Over）极好地提炼了他的核心论点。
…evidence and I think less rationality) that Tyler Cowen (an economist) has been making for several years. Cowen's views are more nuanced (and in my opinion more reasonable) than Thiel's. Cowen's book "Average Is Over" is an excellent distillation of his thesis.
……2018年。他们要的是牛逼轰轰、独角兽级别的忍者摇滚明星（ninja rockstars）！你身上并没有什么“毛病”。纯粹是最低门槛比你想象的高多了。接着死磕吧，你肯定能跨过去的。推荐阅读：泰勒·考恩的《大平庸》（Average is over）。
…2018. They want badass, unicorn, ninja rockstars! There's nothing "wrong" with you. It's just that the minimum bar is higher than you imagined. Keep hustling and you can clear it. Suggested reading: Average is over, by Tyler Cowen
……住房成本贵得离谱。如果你从西雅图搬到比如休斯敦或达拉斯，你的实际房租大概能少掉 35% 到 50%。第二点：去看看泰勒·考恩的书《大停滞》（The Great Stagnation）和《大平庸》（Average is Over）。这几本书太深奥且深刻了（虽然读起来很流畅），很难在这里三言两语概括，但简而言之就是，西方经济体正在经历由多种因素驱动的深刻转变……
…housing is extremely expensive. If you move from Seattle to, say, Houston or Dallas, you'll probably see your effective rent shrink by 35 – 50%. Secondly: see Tyler Cowen's books The Great Stagnation and Average is Over. Those books are too sophisticated and deep (though they're quite readable) to summarize here, but the shortish version is that Western economies are undergoing a lot of profound shifts driven by a combination…
……设计师或社交媒体营销专员。现在很少有人去做蹄铁工或女帽商了。我不知道中国的图书引进情况如何，但如果有条件的话，搞一本泰勒·考恩近期的书《大平庸》（Average Is Over）看看。5. 富人会越来越富，穷人会越来越穷。几个世纪以来，整个世界都在变得越来越富裕，而在过去的几十年里，全世界见证了前所未有的财富创造……
…designer or social media marketing specialist. Few people today work as farrier or milliners. I have no idea what the book situation is like in China, but if you can, get a copy of Tyler Cowen's recent book Average Is Over. 5. Richer people will get richer. Poor people will get poorer. The entire world has been getting richer for centuries, and in the last couple decades the world has seen unprecedented wealth creation…
这就是互补性的本质。考恩在《大平庸》（Average is Over）里花了大篇幅探讨这点，还专门用了大量国际象棋的例子来佐证。强烈推荐。
That's the essence of complementarity. Cowen's "Average is Over" talks about it a lot, and uses many chess examples specifically to back it up. Recommended.
1. 布林约尔松和麦卡菲的《与机器赛跑》（Race Against the Machine） 2. 布林约尔松和麦卡菲的《第二次机器革命》（The Second Machine Age） 3. 马丁·福特的《隧道之光》（The Lights in the Tunnel） 4. 马丁·福特的《机器人时代》（Rise of the Robots） 5. 泰勒·考恩的《大平庸》（Average is Over）——尤其是关于劳动力市场两极分化和人机协作的部分。布林约尔松和麦卡菲是麻省理工的经济学家，顶尖水平。考恩也是乔治……的一位优秀经济学家。
1. Race Against the Machine by Brynjolfsson and McAfee 2. The Second Machine Age by Brynjolfsson and McAfee 3. The Lights in the Tunnel by Martin Ford 4. Rise of the Robots by Martin Ford 5. Average is Over by Tyler Cowen -specifically, the parts about labor market bifurcation and man-machine pairs Brynjolfsson and McAfee are MIT economists. Top notch. Cowen is also an excellent economist at George…