全球灾难性风险
Global catastrophic risks
Nick Bostrom · 初版 2008 年
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在 Global Catastrophic Risks 中，25位顶尖专家审视了人类在21世纪面临的最严峻风险，包括自然灾害、核战争、恐怖主义、全球变暖、生物武器、极权主义、先进纳米技术、通用人工智能以及社会崩溃。本书还探讨了全局性议题——政策应对以及预测和管理灾难的方法。Bostrom 率先提出了生存风险（existential risk）的概念和模拟论证（simulation argument）。他创立了首个关于观测选择效应的明确数学理论，并且是……
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…来看，人类自身就是导致自身灭绝的最大风险。如果我们在下个世纪没有毁灭自己，那我们几乎肯定能走向星辰大海。要深入探讨这个话题，我推荐由 Nick Bostrom 和 Milan Ćirković 主编的《Global Catastrophic Risks》。核心论点很简单明了（见上一段），但其中列出的每项威胁的具体细节本身都非常耐人寻味。1. http://www.amazon.com/Global-Catastrophic-Risks-Nick-Bostrom...
…point, humanity is its own greatest extinction risk. If we don't destroy ourselves in the next century, we will almost certainly inherit the stars. For a much deeper treatment of this subject, I recommend Global Catastrophic Risks, edited by Nick Bostrom and Milan Ćirković. The overarching point is straightforward (see the paragraph above), but the details of each threat are interesting on their own. 1. http://www.amazon.com/Global-Catastrophic-Risks-Nick-Bostrom...
关于这个主题一本不错的读物是 Nick Bostrom 主编的《Global Catastrophic Risks》。你也可以去看看 Lifeboat 基金会：Lifeboat.com
A good read on this subject: "Global Catastrophic Risks", edited by Nick Bostrom. You can also check out the Lifeboat Foundation: Lifeboat.com
确实。如果你想了解更多，我在这方面找到的最好的一本书是 Nick Bostrom 和 Milan M. Cirkovic 主编的《Global Catastrophic Risks》：http://www.amazon.com/Global-Catastrophic-Risks-Nick-Bostrom... “在《Global Catastrophic Risks》一书中，25 位顶尖专家审视了人类面临的最严峻风险…
Indeed. If you want to find out more, the best book that I've found on this subject is _Global Catastrophic Risks_, edited by Nick Bostrom and Milan M. Cirkovic: http://www.amazon.com/Global-Catastrophic-Risks-Nick-Bostrom... "In Global Catastrophic Risks 25 leading experts look at the gravest risks facing humanity…
我觉得确实有理由担心。我有 Nick Bostrom 的《Superintelligence》，但还没看，不过我认为它能非常深入地阐述风险情景。我读过 Bostrom 的《Global Catastrophic Risks》，里面用一整章而不是一整本书的篇幅讨论了 AI，我觉得其中关于 AI 构成真正威胁的论证很有说服力。
I think there's reason for concern. I have, but haven't read Nick Bostrom's "Superintelligence", but I think it can lays out the risk scenario in depth. I have read Bostrom's "Global Catastrophic Risks", which treats AI in a chapter rather than a book, and I found the argument for AI being a genuine threat convincing.
“AI 既不恨你，也不爱你，但你是由原子构成的，而这些原子它可以挪作他用。”——Eliezer Yudkowsky，《Global Catastrophic Risks》第 333 页。[1] 看起来 Nick Bostrom 的《Superintelligence: Paths, Dangers, Strategies》[2]在强调 AI 危险性方面讲得更透彻，虽然我还没读过。1. http://www.amazon.com/Global-Catastrophic-Risks-Nick-Bostrom...…
"The AI neither hates you, nor loves you, but you are made out of atoms that it can use for something else." —Eliezer Yudkowsky, Global Catastrophic Risks p. 333.[1] Apparently Nick Bostrom's Superintelligence: Paths, Dangers, Strategies[2] does a better job of highlighting the dangers of AI, though I haven't read it yet. 1. http://www.amazon.com/Global-Catastrophic-Risks-Nick-Bostrom...…
说点关于这事的历史/背景吧。大多数这种面向公众、高调发出的威胁警告，最初的由头就是 Musk 在 2011 年读了 Nick Bostrom 的《Global Catastrophic Risks》[1]。这似乎成了他开始公开呼吁担忧的导火索。而在 Bostrom 出版《Superintelligence》之后，这种担忧直接加速演变成了 OpenAI 的创立。而在那之前的很多年里，…
A little bit of history/context around this. The genesis for most of this public facing, high profile threat warning came right after Musk read the Nick Bostrom book: Global Catastrophic Risks in 2011 [1]. That seems to have been the catalyst for being publicly vocal about concerns. That accelerated into the OpenAI issue after Bostrom published Superintelligence. For years before that, the…