设计出来的脆弱
Fragile by design
Charles W. Calomiris · 初版 2014 年
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“为什么银行系统在许多国家动荡不安，而在另一些国家却并非如此？自 1840 年以来，美国经历了十二次系统性银行危机，而加拿大却一次也没有。墨西哥和巴西的银行系统不仅屡屡陷入危机，而且向企业和家庭提供的信贷少之又少。Fragile by Design 通过剖析英国、美国、加拿大、墨西哥和巴西数百年来的政治与银行业历史，表明长期的银行业危机和信贷匮乏并非因无法预料的环境所致的偶然事件。相反
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查尔斯·卡洛米里斯（Charles Calomiris）和斯蒂芬·哈伯（Stephen Haber）写的《人为脆弱：银行危机与信贷短缺的政治根源》（Fragile by Design: The Political Origins of Banking Crises and Scarce Credit）。引用自 http://press.princeton.edu/titles/10177.html ：> 为什么银行业体系在那么多国家都不稳定——唯独在另一些国家却很稳？美国历史上经历过十二次……
‘Fragile by Design: The Political Origins of Banking Crises and Scarce Credit’, by Charles Calomiris and Stephen Haber. Quoting http://press.princeton.edu/titles/10177.html : > Why are banking systems unstable in so many countries—but not in others? The United States has had twelve…
所以我们不行，加拿大就行？虽然这种标语式的论调听起来让人难以置信，但这不就是逻辑上的必然推论吗？“极其严肃的人士”（巧的是我也同意他们的观点）在《人为脆弱》里确实就是这么讲的。卡洛米里斯和哈伯既能写又有深刻思考。他们虽然没有直接点名批评那里的医疗或政治领导层，但这联想也完全说得通。从这点再推导出如何看待美国……
So we can't but Canada can? As straining-of-credulity as such a bumper-sticker is, isn't that the logical conclusion? Very Serious People ( with whom I happen to agree) actually say such things in "Fragile By Design". Calomiris/Haber are good writers and good thinkers. They do not call out medical nor political leadership there, but it's not exactly a stretch. It's a short drop from this to the view of America from…
……也就是说，银行。对于银行而言，构建一个稳健可靠系统的动力是不足的；只要拿加拿大来横向对比一下就很清楚了。查尔斯·卡洛米里斯和斯蒂芬·哈伯在《人为脆弱》里做的正是这件事。如果所有监管都能起到这种效果，大家的日子都会好过得多。关键在于，我们得搞明白为什么那些没起效的监管到底失效在哪。
…to say, banks. With banks, the incentives to build a robust and stable system are lacking; one need only compare and contrast with Canada. Charles Calomiris and Stephen Harber do this very thing in "Fragile By Design". If all regulation worked this well, we'd all be better off. It is critical that we know why regulation that doesn't work, doesn't.
……促使房贷脱离“两成首付、30年期”并一路演变至2008年结局的扩张，说白了就是试图用房贷把人拴住，大体上是一种社会控制手段。如果你读过哈伯和卡洛米里斯的《人为脆弱》——他们观点相当保守——你就能更全面地看清这一点。我热爱郊区生活。因为只要策略玩得对，我也能从中捞到不少好处。
…inspired expansion away from the 20% down, 30 year mortgage to what ended in 2008 was an effort to tie people down to a mortgage for reasons of, roughly, social control. If you read Haber & Calomiris "Fragile By Design" - they're quite conservative - you get a better picture of it. I love the suburbs. Because if I play my cards right, I get to be a beneficiary to much of all that.
……摩根，他强行推动了平息那场危机所需的 haircuts（资产减记）和流动性支持网络。在我看来，指责道德风险的那些说法并不怎么站得住脚。卡洛米里斯和哈伯合著了极其出色的《人为脆弱》，书中探讨了加拿大和美国金融体系的差异。我绝非专家，但这似乎是迄今为止最有深度的剖析了——当时所有人都是建立在空中楼阁般的……
…Morgan, who forced the network of haircuts and liquidity support needed to end that. It's not clear to me that the accusations of moral hazard hold that much water. Calomiris and Haber wrote the excellent "Fragile by Design", which examines the difference between the Canadian and US financial systems. I'm far from an expert, but this seems the most fruitful examination so far - everybody was operating on towers of just-so…
……真正的大企业根本打动不了国会里的那帮老爷们。顺便提一句（FWIW），我并不是个“分拆大银行”的支持者[1]，主要是因为《人为脆弱》的作者查尔斯·卡洛米里斯（另一作者是斯蒂芬·哈伯）在书中和播客里的论述。事情远比这更微妙、更复杂，而且美国的小银行游说集团确实势力庞大，也是引发问题的祸根之一。[1] 加拿大基本上……
…really big enterprise cut no ice with the various Congresscritters. FWIW, I am not a "break up the banks" guy[1] mainly because of things written and said in podcasts by Charles Calomiris, author of "Fragile By Design" along with Stephen H. Haber. It is all more nuanced and complicated than that, and the small bank lobby in the US really is a thing and a thing that has caused problems. [1] Canada has very close to…