信号与噪声
The Signal and the Noise
Nate Silver · 初版 2012 年
47人推荐
79位读者提及
97次提及
为什么值得读
- 结合气象与选举等真实场景拆解预测难题
- 引入狐狸与刺猬的专家思维分类模型
- 强调利用历史数据进行回测检验的重要性
Nate Silver 构建了一套创新的棒球表现预测系统，在 2008 年大选预测中达到了惊人精准的程度，并作为博主引发了全国轰动——而这一切都在他三十岁前就已达成。The New York Times 现刊载 FiveThirtyEight.com，Silver 在此成为全美最具影响力的政治预测专家之一。Silver 借助自己开创性的工作深入审视了预测领域，探究我们该如何从充满噪音的数据宇宙中辨识出真正的信号。大多数预测都失败了，往往给社会带来巨大代价，因为我们大多数人都不太懂得
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……当这家巨头企业摧毁它或将其武器化的时候。我纯粹是厌倦了这种事后诸葛亮式的道德标榜。他们根本不在乎我们。这也包括你，Nate Silver。顺便说一句，我当年可是你的铁粉！《信号与噪声》真是一本好书。
…when said conglomerate destroys it or weaponizes it. I'm simply tired of this hindsight virtue signaling. They don't care about us. That means even you, Nate Silver. Btw was a big fan back then! Signal and the Noise was a great book.
Nate Silver 在他那本极好的《信号与噪声》中频繁讨论了“狐狸与刺猬”的区分，他基本上采纳了 Phillip Tetlock 在其关于专家政治判断力的书中所提出的含义。Tetlock 提出的观点是，专家学者可以分为两类：…
Nate Silver discusses the Fox/Hedgehog division in his excellent "The Signal and the Noise" frequently, and he largely takes on the meaning proposed by Phillip Tetlock in his book on expert political judgement. The idea that Tetlock puts forward is that pundits divide into two categories,…
我从 Nate Silver 的《信号与噪声》中了解到的一个有趣事实是：天气预报是一个四维问题（空间 + 时间），因此要想让预报的精细度提升一倍，大约需要 16 倍的计算资源。历史上，分辨率…
One interesting fact that I learned from Nate Silver's book, The Signal and the Noise, is that weather forecasting is a four-dimensional problem (space + time), so to produce a forecast that is twice as detailed requires approximately 16x the computing resources. Historically, the resolution…
…Crunchers: Why Thinking by Numbers is the New Way to Be Smart；Bernstein, Peter (1996) Against the Gods: Remarkable Story of Risk；Kahneman, Daniel (2011) Thinking, Fast and Slow；Silver, Nate (2012) Signal and the Noise: Why So Many Predictions Fail, but Some Don't；Taleb, Nassim Nicholas (2005) Fooled by Randomness, 2E；_________ (2010) Black Swan: Impact of the Highly Improbable, 2E 商业拓展 / 创业…
…Crunchers: Why Thinking by Numbers is the New Way to Be Smart Bernstein, Peter (1996) Against the Gods: Remarkable Story of Risk Kahneman, Daniel (2011) Thinking, Fast and Slow Silver, Nate (2012) Signal and the Noise: Why So Many Predictions Fail, but Some Don't Taleb, Nassim Nicholas (2005) Fooled by Randomness, 2E _________ (2010) Black Swan: Impact of the Highly Improbable, 2E BUSINESS DEVELOPMENT / ENTREPRENEURSHIP…
……与其等待未来比赛的数据，不如在老数据上进行 backtest（回测），看看效果如何（http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Backtesting）。你或许也会有兴趣看看 Nate Silver 写的《信号与噪声》（他负责运营政治/数据博客 FiveThirtyEight，去年以极高准确率预测了大选结果，名声大噪）。
…than waiting for data from future games, you should backtest on old data and see how it performs (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Backtesting). You might also be interested in checking out the book The Signal and The Noise by Nate Silver (He runs the FiveThirtyEight political/data blog that notably predicted last year's election results with great accuracy.)
……数学的一小部分，尽管它是逻辑推理的一个强有力范例。如果我能促使我的二级学生达到能够阅读并理解（比如）Silver 的《信号与噪声》第 8 章的水平，我们可能就有所突破了。
…a small part of mathematics, although a powerful example of logical reasoning. If I could encourage my Level 2 students to a level where they could read and understand (say) Chapter 8 of Silver's The Signal and The Noise we might be getting somewhere.