成功方程式
The success equation
Michael J. Mauboussin · 初版 2012 年
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“在人生的绝大多数领域，技能与运气似乎无可救药地交织在一起。不同水平的技能和程度各异的幸运与厄运，构成了塑造我们生活的现实——然而我们当中鲜有人擅长将两者精准剥离开来。试想一下，如果我们能够理清这两条线索、加以审视，并利用由此得来的认知做出更好的决策，我们能取得怎样的成就。在这本极具启发性的书中，Michael Mauboussin 协助理顺这些错综复杂的关联，提供了分析技能与运气相对重要性所需的框架。他提出了具体的建议……
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……关于运气的帖子，和这篇类似的，有 Paul Buchheit 写的《Serendipity finds you》- http://paulbuchheit.blogspot.com/2010/10/serendipity-finds-y...，而且在我看来最好的书是 Michael J. Mauboussin 写的《The Success Equation: Untangling Skill and Luck in Sports, Business, and Investing》- http://www.amazon.com/Success-Equation-Untangling-Business-I...，比 Nassim Nicholas Taleb 的书强太多了，Taleb 那家伙自大得不行（head up his……
…post on luck, similar to this one, is by Paul Buchheit, "Serendipity finds you" - http://paulbuchheit.blogspot.com/2010/10/serendipity-finds-y... And the best book IMO is by Michael J. Mauboussin, "The Success Equation: Untangling Skill and Luck in Sports, Business, and Investing" - http://www.amazon.com/Success-Equation-Untangling-Business-I... Way better than Nassim Nicholas Taleb's work, he's got his head up his…
Michael Mauboussin 的《The Success Equation: Untangling Skill and Luck》是最好的“Talks at Google”之一。核心论点：在绝对天赋/技能极高的领域，相对天赋的方差很低，因此运气 > 技能。https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1JLfqBsX5Lc
One of the best 'Talks at Google' via Michael Mauboussin "The Success Equation: Untangling Skill and Luck" Thesis: where absolute talent/skill is high, variance in relative talent is low, thus luck > skill. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1JLfqBsX5Lc
……时间。这种效应也被证明可以用来描述音乐是如何流行起来的，但它其实适用于任何能带来名气或社会地位的领域。我是通过读 Michael Mauboussin 的《The Success Equation》发现这个概念的，他在书里写道：>> 马太效应解释了为什么两个人起点几乎相同，最终结局却天差地别。在这样的系统里，初始条件至关重要。而且随着时间推移，它们……
…time. This effect has also been shown to describe how music gets popular, but applies to any domain that can result in fame or social status. I discovered this concept by reading Michael Mauboussin’s The Success Equation where he writes: >> The Matthew effect explains how two people can start in nearly the same place and end up worlds apart. In these kinds of systems, initial conditions matter. And as time goes on, they…
有点扯远了，不过这是我最近偶然看到的内容：Vox 的《体育中运气与实力的统计分析》。他们采访了《The Success Equation: Untangling Skill and Luck in Business, Sports, and Investing》的作者 https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HNlgISa9Giw。我最近一直试着想看懂冰球，但估计很难坚持下去，因为看起来总有……
A bit of a tangent but here's something I stumbled on recently: Vox: A statistical analysis of luck vs skill in sports. They interview the author of The Success Equation: Untangling Skill and Luck in Business, Sports, and Investing https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HNlgISa9Giw I've been trying to get into hockey lately and I doubt It'll last because there seems to be…