气候战争
Climate wars
Gwynne Dyer · 初版 2008 年
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“Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change 预测，到本世纪末全球平均气温将上升 2 至 6.4 摄氏度。这些是保守估计，基于科学家之间达成的最低共识，并被各国政府进一步稀释削弱。这些估计并未将反馈现象和潜在的失控式升温考虑在内。然而世界银行去年在印度的一项研究表明，即使升温 2 度也意味着印度粮食产量减少 25%。气候变化的核心问题不在于海平面上升或生物多样性，而在于
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……倒戈背叛。逃避碳税、碳税漏洞、碳税避税天堂，或者管它什么气体版货币税收乱象。关于气候变化有一本好书（虽然现在看稍微有点过时了），那就是格温·戴尔（Gwynne Dyer）写的《气候战争》（Climate Wars）。他是个标杆级的记者，还是个军人学者型的专家。他的论点是（我意译一下）：我们很幸运现在就遇到了这个问题，因为现在我们还有合作的机会……
…defecting. Carbon tax evasion and carbon tax loopholes and carbon tax havens, or whatever the gasey equivalents of monetary tax mess are. A great book (though slightly dated now) on climate change is "Climate Wars" by Gwynne Dyer. He's a shining beacon journalist and an ex soldier-scholar tip. He made the argument (I'm paraphrasing) that we're lucky we hit this problem now, when we have a chance of cooperating…
……年复一年重读的书：* 本·霍洛维茨的《创业维艰》（The Hard Thing About Hard Things）。我有点自作主张地买了好几本，送给了我一些当 CEO 的朋友/熟人。* 格温·戴尔的《气候战争》（Climate Wars）。这种虚构与非虚构结合的写法，真切地让我关注到了气候变化危机。
…come back year after year * The Hard Thing About Hard Things, by Ben Horowitz. Somewhat presumptuously, I bought multiple copies and sent them to some of my friends/acquaintances that were CEOs. * Climate Wars, by Gwynne Dyer. This mix of fiction and non fiction really brought the climate change crisis to my attention.
这本书一章研究、一章推演地交替进行，帮我把气候变化这种抽象的威胁具象化了：https://www.amazon.com/Climate-Wars-Fight-Survival-Overheats... 在可预见的未来，它绝对会改变地缘政治格局。
This book, a mix of research and speculation (chapter by chapter) was helpful to me in making the abstract threat of climate change real: https://www.amazon.com/Climate-Wars-Fight-Survival-Overheats... It will definitely change geopolitics for the foreseeable future.
我很喜欢格温·戴尔的《气候战争》（Climate Wars）：https://www.amazon.com/Climate-Wars-Fight-Survival-Overheats... 如果你想看纯虚构视角的，可以看看保罗·巴奇加卢皮（Paolo Bacigalupi）的《水刀》（The Water Knife）：https://www.amazon.com/Water-Knife-Paolo-Bacigalupi/dp/08041...
I loved "Climate Wars" by Gwynne Dyer: https://www.amazon.com/Climate-Wars-Fight-Survival-Overheats... If you are looking for a fictional take, check out "The Water Knife" by Paolo Bacigalupi: https://www.amazon.com/Water-Knife-Paolo-Bacigalupi/dp/08041...
如果你对气候变化将如何影响地缘政治的前瞻性视角感兴趣：https://www.amazon.com/Climate-Wars-Fight-Survival-Overheats... 作者将非虚构综述（写于 2011 年，所以有点过时了）与地缘政治冲突的虚构叙事穿插在一起。超级吓人，但也非常让人大开眼界。
If you are interested in a prescient look at how climate change will impact geopolitics: https://www.amazon.com/Climate-Wars-Fight-Survival-Overheats... The author intersperses nonfiction summaries (from 2011, so a bit dated) with fictional accounts of geopolitical conflict. Super scary but eye opening.
这本书概述了针对气候变化的各种地缘政治反应。http://www.amazon.com/Climate-Wars-Fight-Survival-Overheats/... 最后一个推演场景如果我没记错的话，是讲海洋变得更适合产生硫化氢的细菌生存。抱歉，具体细节记不清了，……
This book outlines various geopolitical climate change reactions. http://www.amazon.com/Climate-Wars-Fight-Survival-Overheats/... The last scenario talks about, if I recall correctly, the oceans becoming more welcoming to bacteria that produce hydrogen sulfide. Sorry, I don't remember the details,…