漂向失败
Drift into failure
Sidney Dekker · 初版 2010 年
7人推荐
12位读者提及
22次提及
为什么值得读
- 指出传统还原论方法在分析复杂故障时的缺陷
- 深入探讨变量交互与动态演化如何酿成灾难
- 适用于理解航空航天与核反应堆等极端复杂系统
“次级抵押贷款崩溃与客机水平安定面中的起重螺杆断裂之间有什么共同点？墨西哥湾漏油灾难与哥伦比亚号航天飞机（Space Shuttle Columbia）解体事故之间又有何共通之处？这些都是走向衰亡的系统。在资源有限且多重目标相互冲突的动态复杂环境中追求成功的过程中，一系列微不足道、日常看似平常的决策，最终导致了大规模的系统崩溃。”（[出版商更多信息][1]）[1]: http://www.ashgate.com/default.aspx?page=637&calctitle=1&pageSubject=3018&sort=pubdate&forthcoming=1&title_i
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好了，这里有几本我还没看到有人提过的，虽然对你来说可能有点偏离主题：西德尼·德克尔的《滑向失效》（Drift into Failure）。它研究的是复杂系统中的故障分析，核心观点是：我们经典的还原论/科学方法论并不是研究复杂工程故障的正确途径。如何……
Okay, here's some I haven't seen mentioned yet, although these may be pretty far afield for you: Drift into Failure, by Sidney Dekker. Studies failure analysis in complex systems, and basically argues that our classic reductionist/scientific method approach is the wrong way to study complex engineering failures. How…
那你就该去读读克劳福德的书。顺便也读读西德尼·德克尔的《滑向失效》。复杂度本身才是问题所在。复杂、不断演化、相互交织的条件。当存在大量相互作用的变量时，你根本不可能在真空中做孤立测量。你所讨论的情况正是……的结果
You should read Crawford, then. Read Sidney Dekker's "Drift into Failure" as well. Complexity is the problem. Complex, evolving, interacting conditions. You can't just measure in a vacuum when you have many interacting variables. What you're talking about is the result of…
有两本书特别引发了我在这方面的思考……一本是西德尼·德克尔的《滑向失效》，讲的是如何理解高度复杂系统（飞机、核反应堆等）中的故障；另一本是马修·B·克劳福德的《头脑之外的世界》，那其实是一本哲学……
Two books in particular have me thinking in this direction... Drift into Failure, by Sidney Dekker, which is about understanding failure in highly complex systems (aircraft, nuclear reactors, etc), and The World Beyond Your Head, by Matthew B. Crawford, which is really a philosophy…
……完全可以用数学来解释一切。我们的数据点不够多。在某种程度上，我们可能永远都不可能拥有足够的数据点，单纯就是因为相互作用太复杂了。不妨去读读德克尔的《滑向失效》。它是关于复杂系统故障分析的（以及为什么在试图理解这类故障时，还原论思维往往是个馊主意），但它完全适用于去“解释”听觉上的……
…could explain it all with the math. We don't have enough data points. At a certain point, we perhaps can't have enough data points, just because the interactions are so complex. Try reading Dekker's Drift into Failure. It's about failure analysis in complex systems (and why reductionist thinking is often a bad idea when trying to understand such failures), but it certainly applies to trying to "explain" the audible…
建议去读读西德尼·德克尔的书：《理解人为错误现场指南》[1] 和《滑向失效》[2] [1] - https://www.amazon.com/Field-Guide-Understanding-Human-Error... [2] - https://www.abebooks.com/servlet/BookDetailsPL?bi=3123581163...
Please consider reading Sidney Dekker's books, The Field Guide to Understanding Human Error[1] and Drift Into Failure[2] [1] - https://www.amazon.com/Field-Guide-Understanding-Human-Error... [2] - https://www.abebooks.com/servlet/BookDetailsPL?bi=3123581163...
“会被联合起来的当权机构拉黑、封杀封号或限流降权” 抱歉，并不是这样。塔勒布的《黑天鹅》和德克尔的《滑向失效》就在那儿，还有很多其他书。只要肯花心思去了解的人，对这些观点都熟得很。
"would be blacklisted, deplatformed, or deamplified by consolidated authorities" Sorry. Not true. You have Black Swan (Taleb) and Drift into Failure (Dekker) among many other books. These ideas are very well known to anyone who makes the effort.