能源的神话与现实
Energy myths and realities
Vaclav Smil · 初版 2010 年
2人推荐
4位读者提及
5次提及
迷思：新能源与技术创新将在几十年内彻底消除对化石燃料的需求。现实：全面的能源转型需要经历数代人。迷思：碳封存（carbon sequestration，即从大气中捕获二氧化碳排放并加以封存）是解决全球气候变化的良方。现实：由于成本、技术挑战以及社会接受度等问题，碳封存无法阻止碳排放的进一步大幅上升。迷思：电动汽车将在不久的将来取代传统汽车。现实：电动汽车
Hacker News 上怎么说
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……（它并不是一种能源）依然很高。风力发电的产能仍然远远没有拉满，尽管它确实存在你提到的相对于水电的那些短板。[1] 斯米尔（Smil），《Energy Myths and Realities》（极好，强烈推荐），http://www.amazon.com/Energy-Myths-Realities-Bringing-Scienc... [2]：普伦蒂斯（Prentiss），《Energy Revolution: The Physics and Promise of Efficient Technology》（如果你已经……的话就没那么好）
…(which is not an energy source) is still high. Wind power production is still nowhere near at capacity even though it suffers from the deficiencies relative to hydro that you have mentioned. [1] Smil, Energy Myths and Realities (Excellent, highly recommended), http://www.amazon.com/Energy-Myths-Realities-Bringing-Scienc... [2]: Prentiss, Energy Revolution: The Physics and Promise of Efficient Technology (not that good if you've…
……斯米尔（Smil）的书，我觉得他有点太执着于“历史总会重演”这种想法了。基于政治和技术层面的原因，我不认为这次的能源转型能和他引用的过去案例相提并论；事实上，《Energy Myths and Realities》经不起时间的考验，因为可再生能源普及的数据更新得实在太快了。话虽如此，这本书依然是一部极棒且很有参考价值的历史著作。他对“所有……”这一假说的执念
…Smil’s books and I think he is too stuck on the idea that history will repeat itself. I don’t think this transition compares to the past examples he uses for political and technological reasons and in fact Energy Myths and Realities doesn’t age well because of how rapidly the statistics got out of date on renewable adoption. That said the book is a great and useful historical work. His steadfastness to this hypothesis that “all…
说到这个，读瓦茨拉夫·斯米尔（Vaclav Smil）的《Energy Myths and Realities: Bringing Science to the Energy Policy Debate》[1] 真的让人醍醐灌顶。我之前也有类似的预设，觉得这不是技术问题，而是政策冲突（以及随之而来的扭曲机制……
On this note, reading Vaclav Smil's "Energy Myths and Realities: Bringing Science to the Energy Policy Debate" [1] has been sobering. I had a similar presumption that this isn't a technological problem but rather of a policy conflicts (and subsequent perverse mechanisms…
……在本土以及印度和非洲推广更高效的交通、供暖和发电方式，能起到很大的作用。[1] 2012 年水平，出自 Mara Prentiss 的《Energy Revolution》 [2] 《Energy Myths and Realities: Bringing Science to the Energy Policy Debate》，作者 Vaclav Smil [3] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Oil_reserves [4] http://www.eia.gov/forecasts/steo/report/global_oil.cfm
…domestically and in India and Africa, and implementing more efficient transportation, heating and electricity generation could go a long way. [1] 2012 levels, from Energy Revolution by Mara Prentiss [2] Energy Myths and Realities: Bringing Science to the Energy Policy Debate by Vaclav Smil [3] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Oil_reserves [4] http://www.eia.gov/forecasts/steo/report/global_oil.cfm
……其他人。我看到一条关于斯米尔（Smil）的评论：“评价预言家、先知和远见者水平有个办法：去翻翻他们 5 年、10 年、15 年前的预测。我手头有斯米尔的书：《Energy Myths and Realities: Bringing Science to the Energy Policy Debate》（2010年版）。来看看他提前 10 年做的预言到底准不准，重点看看光伏部分（我买的是捷克语译本，所以我得重新翻译……
…everyone else. I found the following comment about Smil: "There is a way how to evaluate the quality of prophets, seers and visionaries. Find their 5,10,15 years old predictions. I own the Smil’s book: Energy Myths and Realities: Bringing Science to the Energy Policy Debate (2010). So have a look how good prophet he was 10 years in advance and focus on photovoltaics (I own Czech translation of the book, so I need to re-translate…