数字骗术
Proofiness
Charles Seife · 初版 2010 年
2人推荐
2位读者提及
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秉承Stephen Colbert提出的“truthiness”（貌似真实）概念传统，《Proofiness》探讨了诡辩术与数学的交集。作者探讨了回归分析、虚假相关、波将金数字（Potemkin numbers）以及其他各种不可靠的手法，这些手法旨在让人们误以为数据反映了现实中根本不存在的模式。在我看来，《How to Lie With Statistics》会是其同类风格读物。
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……把作者真正想表达的东西全提炼出来，然后再以更有逻辑条理的方式呈现。对修辞中数字滥用感兴趣的人，我推荐《Proofiness》[1] 这本书，它讲了人们如何把数学当作修辞工具来滥用。科学也是能让外行人更加心安理得相信某件事的东西之一。我赞同最初那篇……
…pulling out all of the actual things the author wanted to say, and then laying those out in a more cohesive fashion. For those interested in the abuse of numbers in rhetoric I can reccomend the book 'Proofiness' [1] which talks about ways people abuse mathematics as a rhetorical tool. Science is one of those things that also helps lay people feel better about believing in something. I agree with the original…
《Proofiness》：https://www.amazon.com/Proofiness-Youre-Being-Fooled-Numbers... 这也是塔夫特（Tufte）书里的一个常见主题：https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Edward_Tufte 我很喜欢《Visual Explanations: Images and Quantities,……
"Proofiness" : https://www.amazon.com/Proofiness-Youre-Being-Fooled-Numbers... It is also a common tread in books by Tufte : https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Edward_Tufte I like "Visual Explanations: Images and Quantities,…
推荐阅读查尔斯·塞夫（Seife）写的《Proofiness: The Dark Arts of Mathematical Deception》。书中深入探讨了这种谬误以及其他各种谬误。最好的应对方法是多变量分析。也就是说，对于你找到的每一个相关性，都要去识别……
Recommended reading "Proofiness: The Dark Arts of Mathematical Deception" by Seife. Talks about this fallacy and others in depth. The best approach is multi-variate analysis. Which is to say for each correlation you find, identify…
唉，这文章水分也太大了。方法论是什么？抽样误差是多少？这里的“尚可”（OK）相比于“良好”（Good）到底意味着什么？这让我想起《Proofiness》[1] 里的那些轶事，讲的是新闻界是如何发现可以通过搞民调来凭空炮制新闻的。[1] http://www.amazon.com/Proofiness-Youre-Being-Fooled-Numbers/...
Sigh what a squishy article. What is the methodology? What is the sampling error? What does "OK" mean relative to "Good" ? This reminds me of the anecdotes in "Proofiness"[1] which talk about how the news industry figured out they could manufacture news by taking a poll. [1] http://www.amazon.com/Proofiness-Youre-Being-Fooled-Numbers/...
……我见过的 VC 通常不会冒那么大的风险，他们会等到至少能预期该团队可以交付点东西时才出手（这也是为什么许多 A 轮融资都要求有 MVP 的原因）。[1] 在《Proofiness: The Dark Arts of Mathematical Deception》中，查尔斯·塞夫声称 NASA 曾要求通用电气（GE）计算登月的成功率，算出来的结果只有 5%。http://www.amazon.com/Proofiness-Dark-Arts-Mathematical-Dece...
…VC's that I've met don't usually take that level risk, they wait until there is at least some expectation that the team can deliver something (hence the MVP requirement in many series A rounds). [1] In "Proofiness: The Dark Arts of Mathematical Deception", Charles Seife claims that NASA asked GE to calculate the chances of success in the Moon Landing and came out with 5%. http://www.amazon.com/Proofiness-Dark-Arts-Mathematical-Dece...
完全就是这样，而且还有人利用这一点来扭曲大众的认知，正如《Proofiness: How you're being fooled by the numbers》[1] 一书中所描述的那样。[1] https://www.amazon.com/Proofiness-Youre-Being-Fooled-Numbers...
Exactly this, and then there are people who exploit this in order to skew perceptions as described in "Proofiness: How you're being fooled by the numbers."[1] [1] https://www.amazon.com/Proofiness-Youre-Being-Fooled-Numbers...