我孙辈的暴风雪
Storms of my grandchildren
James E. Hansen · 初版 2009 年
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“在《Storms of My Grandchildren》一书中，全美顶尖的气候问题科学家 James Hansen 博士首次直言不讳地揭示了全球变暖的全部真相：地球正以比以往所认为的更快的速度冲向气候万劫不复的临界点。尽管人类活动引起的气候变化威胁如今已得到广泛承认，但政客们未能将政策与科学相结合，反而受特殊利益集团驱使采取徒劳无功的应对措施。Hansen 阐述了为什么 Obama 总统提出、Al Gore 也支持的 cap-and-trade 方案行不通；为什么我们必须……”
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……变化的时间跨度。过去这种变化要经历几个世纪，而我们现在几十年内就造成了变化。这种时间跨度极具灾难性风险。如果你真想搞明白，我建议读读詹姆斯·汉森（James Hansen）写的《我孙子辈的风暴》（Storms of My Grandchildren），或者至少搜几篇书评来感受一下。
…timescale of the change. In the past changes occurred over centuries, we are causing the change in decades. That timescale risks catastrophe. If you genuinely want to understand then I recommend reading Storms of My Grandchildren by James Hansen, or at least googling a few book reviews to get a sense.
一本极佳的入门读物是詹姆斯·汉森的《我孙子辈的风暴》。它讲的是硬核科学，而且直接回应了否认气候变化者常提的反驳论调。让我吃惊的是，书里的科学论证是从多个角度切入的，所以哪怕有人……
An excellent introductory book is Storms of My Grandchildren by James Hansen. It speaks to the science and directly addresses the common objections that deniers bring up. What surprised me is that the science comes at this from multiple angles, so even if someone…
……挺鼓舞人心的。大卫·雷·格里芬（David Ray Griffin）的《史无前例》（Unprecedented）是最近一本涉猎类似领域且同样引用了大量文献的书，两者的结论差不多。如果你想了解更多关于地质学证据的细节，可以看詹姆斯·汉森的《我孙子辈的风暴》。你说的确实没错，某些方面是会有所改善。然而，我们从地质学和古生物学中见识过以往几次重大变暖时期的后果：大规模灭绝，以及庞大的……
…encouraging. A recent book that covers similar ground, also with a lot of references, is Unprecedented by David Ray Griffin; the conclusions are similar. If you want more detail on the geologic evidence, see Storms of My Grandchildren by James Hansen. You're surely right that there will be things that improve. However, we know from geology and paleontology what's happened in previous major warming periods: mass extinction, and a huge…
……我们之所以知道接下来会发生什么，原因之一就在于地球以前经历过变暖周期，我们能从地质证据中看到曾经发生的一切。汉森在《我孙子辈的风暴》中对这些证据做了非常出色的阐述。
…One reason we know what to expect is that the Earth has gone through warming cycles before and we can see what happened in the geological evidence. A good presentation of that evidence is in Hansen's Storms of My Grandchildren.
……源自轨道变化，这导致了温室气体排放，进而导致全球平均气温上升数度。詹姆斯·汉森在《我孙子辈的风暴》一书中对这一点的证据给出了极好的解释。人们长期以来一直以为临界点在 2 摄氏度左右，但现在有些人认为其实更接近 1.5 度。大家曾经公认的安全 CO2 浓度阈值是 350 ppm。
…from orbital variations, which leads to greenhouse gas emissions, which leads to the global average temperature going up several degrees. A good explanation of the evidence for this is in James Hansen's Storms of My Grandchildren. People have long thought the threshold to be around 2 degrees C, but now some are thinking it's more like 1.5. The CO2 level everybody agreed was safe was 350 ppm.
……并不是为了确认二氧化碳排放导致的气候变化是不是真的存在。这一点在物理学和地质史上早已盖棺定论。汉森在《我孙子辈的风暴》中有几个章节对这方面的证据做了极好的阐述。
…not to see whether climate change from CO2 emissions is a real thing. That's well established by physics and geological history. A good presentation of this evidence is in a couple chapters of Hansen's Storms of My Grandchildren.