公民抵抗为何有效
Why civil resistance works
Erica Chenoweth、Maria J. Stephan · 初版 2011 年
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在一个多世纪的时间里（从1900年到2006年），非暴力抗争运动在实现既定目标方面的成效是暴力抗争的两倍以上。通过吸引民众的大力支持——其行动形式包括抗议、抵制、公民不服从和其他形式的非暴力不合作——这些努力有助于切断政权与其主要权力来源的联系，并取得了显著成效，即使在伊朗、缅甸、菲律宾和巴勒斯坦领土也是如此。本书将统计分析与对特定国家和地区的案例研究相结合
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……有效的工具。有相关的学术研究[1]，探讨它实际上如何比暴力抗议更有效——它具有切实的成效。这绝不仅仅是“virtue signaling”。[1] https://www.amazon.com/Why-Civil-Resistance-Works-Nonviolent...
…effective tool. There are academic studies done on it [1] and how it is actually more effective than violent protest - it has real efficacy. It's not merely "virtue signaling". [1] https://www.amazon.com/Why-Civil-Resistance-Works-Nonviolent...
……在他们成功时推翻专制政权。非暴力运动成功的概率大约是其两倍，并且事后通常会建立非专制体制（主要例外大概是伊朗）。可以看看 Chenoweth 写的《Why Civil Resistance Works》这本书，里面对相关文献做了综述。
…autocratic regimes when they did. Non-violent movements succeeded about twice as often, and generally resulted in non-autocratic systems afterwards (main exception probably being Iran). See the book Why civil resistance works by Chenoweth which does a review of the literature.
啊，好吧。关于这一点有一整套文献，我想这正是导致我们观点分歧的原因。我建议先从《Why Civil Resistance Works: The Strategic Logic of Nonviolent Conflict (Columbia Studies in Terrorism and Irregular Warfare)》读起。面对恶意行事的组织，有效推动变革的历史可能并不……
Ah, ok. There's a whole body of literature here that I think divides our opinions. I would recommend "Why Civil Resistance Works: The Strategic Logic of Nonviolent Conflict (Columbia Studies in Terrorism and Irregular Warfare)" to start. The history of effective change in the face of organizations acting in bad faith may not be…
门槛比你想的要低。在《Why Civil Resistance Works》中，Erica Chenoweth 将其称为 3.5% 法则——基本上就是说变革的门槛其实非常低。这是《华盛顿邮报》（WaPo）的一篇总结文章：http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/worldviews/wp/2013/11/05...…
The thresholds are lower than you think. In "Why Civil Resistance Works" Erica Chenoweth calls it the 3.5% rule - basically that there's a really low threshold for change. Here's a WaPo article summarizing it: http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/worldviews/wp/2013/11/05...…
……改良运动”（第 xx 页）。他们花了两年时间整理数据集，但非常值得——在分析这些数据后，他们在 2011 年把研究成果发表在备受好评的专著《Why Civil Resistance Works》中，该书荣获了美国政治学会声名卓著的伍德罗·威尔逊奖。Chenoweth 和 Stephan 发现，“主要依赖非暴力的运动中，有超过一半……
…reform movements” (p. xx). It took them two years to put the data set together, but it was well worth it – after analyzing those data, in 2011 they published their results in their highly acclaimed book, Why Civil Resistance Works, which received the prestigious Woodrow Wilson Prize of the American Political Science Association. Chenoweth and Stephan found that “[m]ore than half of the campaigns that relied primarily on nonviolent…
ER 的创始人选择非暴力公民不服从（不可避免地会给人们‘添麻烦’），是遵循了数十年的实证研究（例如 http://cup.columbia.edu/book/why-civil-resistance-works/9780...），这些研究声称表明这是实现快速且大规模社会变革的最有效策略。我对这项研究了解不够，无法对其进行评估，但我宁愿相信它，也不愿相信外行人的瞎猜……
The ER founders chose nonviolent civil disobedience (which of necessity 'inconveniences' people) following decades of empirical research (eg. http://cup.columbia.edu/book/why-civil-resistance-works/9780...) claiming to show that it's the most effective strategy for effecting fast & large-scale social change. I don't know the research well enough to assess it, but I'd trust it over lay guesswork…