《粗略估算》封面

粗略估算

Guesstimation

John A. Adam · 初版 2008 年

8人推荐
9位读者提及
19次提及

揭示近似估算的力量——四舍五入到最近的十的幂次方的大众数学。估算能力是日常生活中一项至关重要的技能。

Hacker News 上怎么说

  • 我挺喜欢一本书,好像叫《餐巾纸背后的粗略估算》(Guesstimations in the back of a napkin)之类的。是这本吗?https://www.amazon.com/Guesstimation-Solving-Worlds-Problems...

    There's this book I like called "Guesstimations in the back of a napkin" or something This? https://www.amazon.com/Guesstimation-Solving-Worlds-Problems...

  • 谢谢推荐,回头一定拜读。我也超喜欢《Guesstimation》。https://www.amazon.in/Guesstimation-Solving-World%60s-Proble...

    Thanks for the suggestion. will definitely give it a try. I really liked guesstimation too. https://www.amazon.in/Guesstimation-Solving-World%60s-Proble...

  • 我不太喜欢 Taleb,不过——Taleb 的任何作品都行。还有练费米估算的习题书,比如《Guesstimation》之类。再往外一点,系统思维方面的东西,也许 Donella Meadows 的《Thinking in systems》。再再往外,也许是 Stafford Beer 那些关于可行系统模型的论文?Beer 曾经……

    I'm not very fond of Taleb, but well -- anything by Taleb. Exercise books for Fermi estimates like Guesstimation, etc. Further out, something in systems thinking, maybe Donella Meadows' "Thinking in systems". Further further out, maybe those Stafford Beer papers about the Viable Systems Model? At one point Beer…

  • ……自组织系统中的涌现。伟大的协同行动源自简单的局部规则、行为或动作。我完全理解那种白费力气,比如纸袋还是塑料袋(《Guesstimation》那本书里论证得恰到好处),你开车去超市多烧的油,如果减少出行频率,就抵消了塑料袋还是纸袋这个根本不算问题的问题。我确实相信个人行动和社会行动都重要,……

    …emergence in self-organized systems. Great, coordinated actions follow from simple, local rules or behavior or action. I fully understand wasted effort, like paper vs. plastic bags (as so aptly argued in Guesstimation book), when you consume more gas driving to the supermarket, and if you cut down on frequency of trips you offset the non-issue of plastic vs. paper. I do believe in both individual and societal action,…

  • 推荐把 Weinstein 和 Adams 的《Guesstimation》作为第一个要掌握的主题。对数字及其量级感到自在,会让其他一切更容易。另外,养成做粗略估算的习惯是必不可少的……

    Recommend Guesstimation by Weinstein and Adams as the first topic to master. Getting comfortable with numbers and their sizes will make everything else easier. Also, getting in the habit of doing rough explorations is an essential…

  • 几个想法:* 《Guesstimation: Solving the World's Problems on the Back of a Cocktail Napkin》。数学是工具。从一些简单的算术和科学记数法开始用起来。一旦它变成你能用、能玩的东西……

    A few ideas: * Guesstimation:Solving the World's Problems on the Back of a Cocktail Napkin. Math is a tool. Start using it with some simple arithmetic and scientific notation. Once it becomes something you can use and play in that…

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