我宁愿留有余地、两头下注。不过大家也可以去读读康奈尔大学的 Justin Kruger 和 David Dunning 写的《无能且不自知：认识自身无能的困难如何导致过高的自我评价》（Unskilled and Unaware of It），以此来校准一下自己的判断：http://www.apa.org/journals/features/psp7761121.pdf 非 PDF 链接见：……
I would rather hedge my bets. Although one might temper one's judgement by reading "Unskilled and Unaware of It: How Difficulties in Recognizing One's Own Incompetence Lead to Inflated Self-Assessments" by Justin Kruger and David Dunning of Cornell University" http://www.apa.org/journals/features/psp7761121.pdf Non-pdf URLs at:…
看到这个我就想到了《无能且不自知》（Unskilled and Unaware of It）[1]。你之所以知道打高尔夫有多难，是因为你碰过高尔夫。但很可能很多你觉得不会像高尔夫那么难的事情，实际上跟它一样难。[1] http://people.psych.cornell.edu/~dunning/publications/pdf/un...
When I read this I'm thinking of Unskilled and Unaware of It[1]. You know how hard golf is because you have som experience with golf. But probably lots of things that you don't think would be as hard as golf actually is just as hard. [1] http://people.psych.cornell.edu/~dunning/publications/pdf/un...
……因此，我认为在实践中，DK 效应那篇论文确实支持这样一种观点：能力较差的人自认为比专家更有能力。[2] Kruger, Justin; Dunning, David (1999). "Unskilled and Unaware of It: How Difficulties in Recognizing One's Own Incompetence Lead to Inflated Self-Assessments". Journal of Personality and Social Psychology
…Therefore, I believe that in practice, the DK paper does support the belief that less competent people believe themselves to be more competent than experts. [2] Kruger, Justin; Dunning, David (1999). "Unskilled and Unaware of It: How Difficulties in Recognizing One's Own Incompetence Lead to Inflated Self-Assessments". Journal of Personality and Social Psychology
……在聪明那一端的人则会低估自己的智力，因为他们觉得其他人肯定也能看出他们所能看出的东西。有一篇关于这个话题如今非常有名的论文，题为《无能且不自知：认识自身无能的困难如何导致过高的自我评价》（Unskilled and Unaware of It）
…on the smarter end who underestimate their own intelligence because they believe everyone else must be able to see what they are able to see. There was a paper, quite famous now, on the topic titled "Unskilled and Unaware of It: How Difficulties in Recognizing One's Own Incompetence Lead to Inflated Self-Assessments"
…summary was a bit breezy. But I think an essential component of their theory is the focus on domain knowledge and metacognition, not skill as it is normally used. Consider the title of their first paper: "Unskilled and Unaware of It: How Difficulties in Recognizing One's Own Incompetence Lead to Inflated Self-Assessments". In the conclusion, they write, "We propose that those with limited knowledge in a domain suffer a dual burden: Not only do they reach…
What you're describing is know as the Dunning-Kruger effect explained in Unskilled and Unaware of It: How Difficulties in Recognizing One’s Own Incompetence Lead to Inflated Self-Assessments (1999).
我宁愿留有余地、两头下注。不过大家也可以去读读康奈尔大学的 Justin Kruger 和 David Dunning 写的《无能且不自知：认识自身无能的困难如何导致过高的自我评价》（Unskilled and Unaware of It），以此来校准一下自己的判断：http://www.apa.org/journals/features/psp7761121.pdf 非 PDF 链接见：……
I would rather hedge my bets. Although one might temper one's judgement by reading "Unskilled and Unaware of It: How Difficulties in Recognizing One's Own Incompetence Lead to Inflated Self-Assessments" by Justin Kruger and David Dunning of Cornell University" http://www.apa.org/journals/features/psp7761121.pdf Non-pdf URLs at:…
看到这个我就想到了《无能且不自知》（Unskilled and Unaware of It）[1]。你之所以知道打高尔夫有多难，是因为你碰过高尔夫。但很可能很多你觉得不会像高尔夫那么难的事情，实际上跟它一样难。[1] http://people.psych.cornell.edu/~dunning/publications/pdf/un...
When I read this I'm thinking of Unskilled and Unaware of It[1]. You know how hard golf is because you have som experience with golf. But probably lots of things that you don't think would be as hard as golf actually is just as hard. [1] http://people.psych.cornell.edu/~dunning/publications/pdf/un...
……因此，我认为在实践中，DK 效应那篇论文确实支持这样一种观点：能力较差的人自认为比专家更有能力。[2] Kruger, Justin; Dunning, David (1999). "Unskilled and Unaware of It: How Difficulties in Recognizing One's Own Incompetence Lead to Inflated Self-Assessments". Journal of Personality and Social Psychology
…Therefore, I believe that in practice, the DK paper does support the belief that less competent people believe themselves to be more competent than experts. [2] Kruger, Justin; Dunning, David (1999). "Unskilled and Unaware of It: How Difficulties in Recognizing One's Own Incompetence Lead to Inflated Self-Assessments". Journal of Personality and Social Psychology
……在聪明那一端的人则会低估自己的智力，因为他们觉得其他人肯定也能看出他们所能看出的东西。有一篇关于这个话题如今非常有名的论文，题为《无能且不自知：认识自身无能的困难如何导致过高的自我评价》（Unskilled and Unaware of It）
…on the smarter end who underestimate their own intelligence because they believe everyone else must be able to see what they are able to see. There was a paper, quite famous now, on the topic titled "Unskilled and Unaware of It: How Difficulties in Recognizing One's Own Incompetence Lead to Inflated Self-Assessments"
……总结得有点草率。但我认为他们理论的一个核心要素在于关注领域知识和元认知（metacognition），而非通常意义上的技能（skill）。看看他们第一篇论文的题目吧：《无能且不自知：认识自身无能的困难如何导致过高的自我评价》。在结论中他们写道：“我们认为，在某一领域知识有限的人承受着双重负担：他们不仅会得出……
…summary was a bit breezy. But I think an essential component of their theory is the focus on domain knowledge and metacognition, not skill as it is normally used. Consider the title of their first paper: "Unskilled and Unaware of It: How Difficulties in Recognizing One's Own Incompetence Lead to Inflated Self-Assessments". In the conclusion, they write, "We propose that those with limited knowledge in a domain suffer a dual burden: Not only do they reach…
你描述的正是所谓的达克效应（Dunning-Kruger effect），详见《无能且不自知：认识自身无能的困难如何导致过高的自我评价》（1999）。
What you're describing is know as the Dunning-Kruger effect explained in Unskilled and Unaware of It: How Difficulties in Recognizing One’s Own Incompetence Lead to Inflated Self-Assessments (1999).